What Will Happen to SpaceX Stock Price Before the Next Unlocking?

TL;DR

· SPCX first-day closing price surged by about 19%, driven by its low float and Musk narrative frenzy.

· Bulls are betting on chip scarcity before the first unlock, while bears are eyeing the release of additional shares by existing shareholders.

· Related Tickers: SPCX, RKLB, ASTS, TSLA, Starlink.

When SpaceX entered the public market in the form of SPCX, investors did not buy into an ordinary tech IPO.

On one side, there is Musk, Starlink, space transportation, defense contracts, and the Mars narrative, all of which naturally carry a valuation premium. On the other side, it is a new stock that surged on its first trading day, with a closing market cap of about $2.1 trillion, but with very few tradable shares initially. The key question that ordinary investors really need to answer is quite straightforward: by buying SPCX now, are they betting on the scarcest space asset in the public market or providing liquidity for existing shareholders' future exits?

Over the past few days, the X community and Chinese investors' discussions have also centered around this issue. Bulls believe that the low float, FOMO, Musk narrative, and potential passive buying pressure from being included in indices may continue to drive up the stock price before the first unlock. Bears, on the other hand, are looking at another set of numbers: aside from the shares issued in this offering, existing shareholders still hold about 95%+ of the shares. As the lock-up period gradually expires, the secondary market will face more low-cost chips entering the trading pool.

What is currently being traded with SPCX is not just SpaceX's ultimate vision but a time lag: how high can the price be squeezed before the first unlock due to supply scarcity, and how much of the narrative premium will be consumed by the additional supply after the first unlock.

First-Day Surge Amplified the Low Float Squeeze

According to an official announcement from SpaceX, the company IPO'd 555,555,555 shares of Class A common stock at a price of $135, expected to begin trading on June 12 on the Nasdaq Global Select Market and Nasdaq Texas under the symbol "SPCX," with an additional 83,333,333 shares of over-allotment. Multiple media reports indicated that SPCX closed at around $160.95 on its first day, a surge of about 19% from the IPO price, with a closing market cap of about $2.1 trillion.

This provided enough room for short-term funds to imagine. For a newly listed stock with a large market cap, this is no longer just about IPO hype but the market pricing a scarce asset at an extremely high valuation.

The low float is the first building block to understand this round of trading. According to the prospectus, post-IPO, Class A has approximately 7.38 billion shares and Class B has approximately 5.696 billion shares, with the new IPO shares accounting for just over 4% of the total shares outstanding. In other words, the proportion of shares truly entering public trading through the IPO is very low in the early stages of listing.

When a stock has limited supply and buying pressure is collectively driven up by hot topics, media, social platforms, and institutional speculation, prices are easily squeezed. It's not that the fundamentals have suddenly strengthened overnight, but rather that there are more buyers than sellers available.

This explains why some investors see SPCX as a short-term trading opportunity rather than just following the traditional valuation model. Starlink provides a clearer revenue base, space launch and defense businesses offer scarcity, and Musk himself amplifies the asset's narrative. For short-term funds, these factors may not need to be realized as profits immediately, as long as they can attract sustained buying interest, which is enough to support the strong performance in the early stages of listing.

Potential index funds are also a variable in the long thesis. The logic is not complex: if SPCX is included in a major index in the future, index-tracking funds will need to adjust their holdings according to the rules. These buyers typically do not actively bet on the company but rather need to track the index. When the float is very small, passive buying may continue to amplify the supply-demand imbalance.

However, this can only be described as trading speculation. Index inclusion has not been officially confirmed, and the so-called allocation window cannot be considered a set arrangement. For SPCX, index funds are not a realized positive development but rather an option for the bulls to explain the possibility of continued short-term buying interest.

The First Unlock Will Alter the Supply Curve

The risk with SPCX is not that the "company is not great enough" but that the relationship between the stock price and the tradable supply will change.

The purpose of the IPO lock-up period is to prevent existing shareholders and employees from immediately selling off after the listing, which could impact the new stock price. What many retail investors often overlook is that the lock-up period primarily addresses the supply issue. The market pressure on a company's stock is entirely different when there are few tradable shares versus when a large number of shares can be sold.

SPCX's unlocking arrangement is not a simple "one-time release after 180 days." The prospectus indicates that after the second full trading day following the release of the 2026 Q2 financial report, up to 20% of the shares subject to the 180-day lock-up can be transferred. If the stock price at that time meets a threshold of at least 30% above the issuing price and meets other criteria for at least 5 days out of 10 consecutive trading days, an additional 10% may be released. Subsequently, 7% can be released at intervals of 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days, with the full release after 180 days.

The specific release date of the Q2 financial report has not been confirmed yet. If following the usual disclosure schedule, the speculated initial window in the market discussion may fall around August, but it still needs to be confirmed by subsequent announcements and SEC filings. The filing also indicates that Musk's shares are locked for 366 days, with some major shareholders extending their lockup until after the 2027 Q2 financial report and gradually releasing them.

This is the core of short interest. As long as the initial unlock has not arrived, a low float is the friend of the longs. Once the unlock approaches, the low float will turn into a risk signal because the market will preemptively ask: how many low-cost shares are ready to be sold?

Potential selling pressure does not necessarily lead to a sharp drop on the unlock day. Its more common impact is to make buying more cautious, make rebounds more easily meet with selling, and make valuation expansion more difficult. Especially when a stock has already been pushed to over $2 trillion in the early stages of its IPO, even if the new supply is not dumped all at once, it will still alter the market's judgment on "who will take the other side of the trade."

Therefore, the questions of "can it still rise before the initial unlock" and "is it worth chasing in the medium term" can coexist. In the short term, with tight supply, hot sentiment, and a strong narrative, the stock price may still be squeezed. In the medium term, the exit demand from existing shareholders and employees is indeed real, and their holding costs are usually much lower than those of secondary market buyers. These two judgments are not looking at the same time frame.

High Valuation Turns the Financial Report into an Amplifier

If SPCX were just a low float new stock, the unlocking pressure would already be important enough. What's more complex is that it is also a low float new stock placed in an extremely high valuation range.

According to SpaceX's roadshow materials, the company's revenue in 2025 is around $18.7 billion. Market discussions on 2026 revenue mainly fall in the range of $22 billion to $24 billion, but this is not confirmed company guidance. Calculated with a market value of about $2.1 trillion on the first day of trading, what the market is buying clearly is not only the current Starlink revenue but also the satellite internet, commercial spaceflight, defense collaboration, Starship transportation capabilities, and even Musk's long-term options in the ecosystem.

Paying a high price for a future story is not a problem in itself. The tech sector has repeatedly seen this scenario: when the market believes a company has a rare entry, it will early on discount years of future profits into the stock price. The problem lies in the sensitivity of this pricing to the pace. Once the financial report, orders, profit margins, or user growth do not keep up with expectations, the market may not necessarily deny the endgame but will reevaluate the pace of realization.

This makes the Q2 financial report a crucial milestone before the initial unlock. It is not only the first report card after going public but could also become an amplifier of unlock expectations. If the financial report is strong, the longs will argue that the fundamentals can support the valuation, and the short-term squeezing logic can continue. If the financial report is weak, the shorts will connect it to the unlock window: the fundamentals have not proven the current valuation to be reasonable, more shares are about to be released, so why should the secondary market buy at a high level?

This is also where SPCX differs from mature tech stocks. The impact of mature tech stocks' financial reports is more reflected in profit forecasts and valuation multiples. SPCX's financial report will also affect trading confidence before and after the lock-up period. It needs to address two questions simultaneously: whether business growth can support a long-term narrative, and whether there will still be enough buying pressure to absorb the available supply as the tradable supply is about to increase.

Analogy to TGE, the Core is Low Circulating Supply with an Expiry Date

In the Chinese community, some investors liken SPCX to "trading the low circulating supply of a top-tier VC project post-TGE."

TGE refers to the token generation event of a crypto project. Many top projects have a low circulating supply and a strong narrative at launch, with early investors and team tokens locked up. In the initial stages, due to the limited available tokens and high attention, the price is easily driven up. However, as the unlock period approaches, the market begins to anticipate future selling pressure, and the price may enter a consolidation phase.

This analogy is not entirely accurate. Stock IPOs and crypto token issuance are different in terms of regulation, disclosure of information, and investor structure. However, it captures the same market mechanism: low circulation is not a long-term positive but a supply-demand imbalance with an expiration date.

Within this framework, trading after SPCX's listing can be divided into several stages. In the initial listing phase, the market mainly rewards scarcity and narrative, and buyers are concerned about whether the price can continue to rise. As the first unlock date approaches, trading becomes more complex, with investors simultaneously considering new supply, financial report catalysts, and potential index inclusions. As the larger-scale unlock approaches, the market shifts from "unable to buy" to "can't handle it."

This also explains why discussions in the community may reflect a combination of "short-term optimism, medium-term caution." It is not a swing but different time slices of the same supply-demand framework. During the low circulation phase, bulls are more likely to dominate. As the unlock phase approaches, bearish logic begins to strengthen. The judgment needed is not about whether SpaceX is great, but whether the current price has already priced in the scarcity before the first unlock.

Next Steps: Focus on Unlocking Documents, Financial Reports, and Passive Buying Pressure

For the future trend of SPCX, the most important validation points are not in the Mars narrative or social media sentiment, but in several more specific variables.

The first thing to look at is the unlocking arrangement in the final documents and subsequent disclosures by the company. The initial transferable percentage, price trigger conditions, financial report release dates, extension of the lock-up for shareholders will all directly affect the future supply curve. For investors, this is more important than daily price fluctuations.

Next is whether the Q2 financial report can support the current valuation. SPCX has a compelling long-term story, but what the secondary market will focus on in the short term are still revenue, orders, profit margins, and cash flow. The stronger the financial report, the easier it is for the low float squeeze to continue. The weaker the financial report, the easier it is for the unlock selling pressure to become the pricing main theme.

The inclusion in the index also needs further observation, but until a clear announcement is made, it is still just a long position trading assumption. If subsequent inclusion and allocation demands indeed materialize, it may temporarily buffer some unlock pressure in the short term, but it does not mean that it can permanently absorb the exit needs of existing shareholders and employees.

SPCX is now more like a supply-demand experiment with a countdown. Before the initial unlock, the low float and strong narrative may still keep the price resilient. After the initial unlock, the market will begin to test how much real underlying support this $2 trillion space asset actually has. For retail investors, rather than guessing a target price, it is more important to focus on this inflection point: when the story of "unattainability" turns into a question of "who will take it," the trading logic has already shifted.

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