Over the past weekend, Trump announced that the "agreement with Iran has been completed" and the Strait of Hormuz will be open. However, peace is never something that can be achieved with just one of Trump's tweets. This weekend, the execution of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) saw the first wave of significant friction—where oil prices, precious metals, and stock indices all followed this storyline through a complete round trip.

On June 19-20, Israel continued its airstrikes on Lebanon, causing Iran to temporarily postpone talks with the US. The Revolutionary Guard announced a "high alert" status, threatening to withdraw from the negotiations if Israel continued its strikes.

On June 20, while Trump boasted that "about 700 ships are passing through the strait, and Iran must reach an agreement within 60 days," he described this ceasefire memorandum as "basically equivalent to Iran's unconditional surrender" in an interview, and threatened further action if no agreement is reached within 60 days. Tehran was completely angered. Later that day, Iran's Supreme Military Command briefly announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the US's "violation of the ceasefire memorandum." Despite the US Central Command's rebuttal that "Iran does not control the strait," 55 commercial vessels still passed through that day.

On June 21, a four-party (US, Iran, Qatar, Pakistan) technical-level consultation began in the Swiss mountains of Biergarten. Vice President Vans personally led the team and sat at the same table as Iranian Foreign Minister Alaragzi. During the first 80-minute closed-door meeting, the Iranian delegation briefly protested and left the room due to Trump's remarks but quickly returned.

By June 22 (this morning), the atmosphere had significantly warmed. Qatar and Pakistan issued a joint statement announcing three phased achievements: the establishment of a high-level political supervision committee, outlining a 60-day final agreement roadmap, and initiating a mechanism to resolve the Lebanon conflict. The mediators described the negotiation atmosphere as "extremely positive and constructive." The Pakistani side also revealed that Iran will not block ships from passing through the strait in the next 60 days and the passage will be free. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated, "The Swiss talks have made good progress."

Crude Oil

The weekend's trend in crude oil continued to fluctuate with the news but overall maintained a downward trajectory.

On June 19, The New York Times cited US intelligence saying that "Israel is likely to continue its strikes on Lebanon," causing the oil price to spike from $76.5 to near $78.

On the evening of June 20, Iran's Supreme Military Command announced the "closure of the strait," causing the oil price to spike to a high of $79.

Trump then made a more aggressive statement on Fox: "The United States may take over the Strait of Hormuz and charge tolls when necessary," and stated that "taking over the strait means the United States gets 20% of the oil," claiming to have had overnight talks with Iranian officials. Oil prices then slowly rose.

In the early morning of June 22, the tone set by the Iranian Foreign Ministry of "Swiss talks making good progress" caused the price of oil contracts to fall nearly 6% from the weekend high.

US Stock Market

In contrast to the dramatic volatility of oil, the performance of the US stock market this week was much calmer.

On the index side, the XYZ100 and SP500 mostly hovered around the zero mark throughout the weekend, with a temporary downturn during the trading day (SP500 dipping to around -0.6% at its lowest), followed by a recovery along with the opening of stock index futures.

At the individual stock level, there was a general slight decline following the broader market, with the technology sector showing SKHX -0.79%, MU -0.63%, NVDA -0.8%, SMSN -3.0%.

High-beta growth stocks SPCX -1.51%, DRAM -1.68%, MRVL -1.22% experienced synchronous pullbacks, while relatively strong stocks included MSTR +0.89%, HIMS +0.38%.

Commodity Futures

Gold and silver saw a jump in futures prices at the opening. This is a continuation of the "loose repricing" logic that emerged over the past weekend. The downward trend in oil prices strengthened expectations of peaking inflation, a drop in yields, and a weaker dollar, which supported precious metals instead of traditional safe-haven buying.

An unexpected rise in natural gas prices occurred (+2.51%).

The rise may have been triggered by an accident. Earlier today, an explosion occurred at the Ras Laffan natural gas plant, a core LNG processing facility in Qatar, resulting in 54 injuries and 18 people missing. The plant's Barzan LNG facility provides gas for Qatar's domestic industry and power generation, and it is currently unclear whether LNG production has been affected. Qatar was the world's second-largest LNG exporter before the conflict began, having previously halted production due to facility attacks and strait blockades.

In a subtle juxtaposition to this explosion, another signal of "resumption" has emerged: Qatar has started to recall empty LNG carriers to re-enter the Persian Gulf, with the market anticipating a recovery in natural gas supply from Qatar.

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