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Bitcoin Falls Below $86,000: Retail Sell-off, Whale Accumulation – Is It Time to Buy?

Foresight News

2026-01-26 04:06

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Capital Outflows, Geopolitical Risk Escalation, and Market Confidence Erosion have together formed a structural constraint on risk assets.

Original Title: "Middle East Turmoil, Gold and Silver at New Highs, BTC Falls Below $86,000 But Seen as Buying Opportunity?"

Original Author: Mah, Foresight News

On January 26, the cryptocurrency market continued its weak trend this month, with BTC dropping from $88,000 to around $86,000, and ETH price dropping from around $3,000 to briefly below $2,800, while the altcoin market experienced a widespread decline. Since hitting a high of $98,000 in early January, Bitcoin has seen six consecutive trading days of decline, marking its longest losing streak since November 2024.

According to Coinglass data, within the past 12 hours, the total liquidation amount in the crypto market reached a high of $603 million, with long liquidations accounting for $553 million. The panic index is currently at 29, indicating "extreme fear."

Global financial markets saw pressure on U.S. stocks at the end of the week, with the futures market showing downside risks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 285.30 points, or 0.58%, to 49,098.71 points; the S&P 500 index rose by 2.26 points, or 0.03%, to 6,915.61 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index increased by 65.23 points, or 0.28%, to 23,501.24 points. Although the Nasdaq closed higher on Friday, it was not enough to prevent all three major indexes from ending the week lower. The S&P 500 index fell by 0.36% this week, the Dow fell by 0.53%, and the Nasdaq slipped by 0.06%. The U.S. Dollar Index also weakened, dropping by 0.91% on the day.

Contrary to the stock market, the precious metals market moved higher, becoming the preferred safe haven. Both gold and silver prices reached new all-time highs, closing the day at $5,041.39 per ounce for gold, with the Gold ETF's holdings increasing by 2.5% this week. Silver performed even stronger, currently priced at $107.8 per ounce, as industrial demand for silver (such as in solar energy and electronics) combined with its safe-haven appeal, driving its price to new highs.

Significant Net Outflows from BTC and ETH Spot ETFs

SoSoValue data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen oscillating net inflows and outflows since January, with continuous net outflows over the past 5 days since January 16, including a single-day net outflow of $700 million on January 21. From January 16 to January 23, only on January 22 did the outflows amount to $32.11 million, with the rest exceeding $100 million.

The Ethereum spot ETF has also performed poorly. There have been net outflows for four consecutive days since January 20, with the highest amount being $2.2995 billion.

The spot ETF data has seen significant net outflows, with BTC and ETH showing weak performance.

Unstable Middle East Situation and US Tech Giants' Earnings Reports to Be Released This Week

On January 23, when President Trump delivered a speech on Air Force One, he stated that the US government would impose a 25% tariff on all countries engaging in trade with Iran, with the measure taking effect soon. Trump's so-called "secondary tariff" is not a professional term but essentially a form of currency sanctions imposed on countries trading with nations that the US views unfavorably.

On January 26, the US Navy's USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group arrived in the Middle East and is carrying out operations within the US Central Command's area of responsibility. The US Air Force announced that it would conduct a several-day readiness exercise in the Middle East region to demonstrate the US military's ability to deploy and sustain air combat power in the area.

Polymarket data shows that the market's betting probability of a US military strike against Iran by February 28 has risen to 53%. The current trading volume in this prediction market is close to $100 million.

In response, Iranian officials have issued a strong warning, placing the military on high alert and threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz. This strait transports 20% of the world's oil, and any interruption could raise energy prices, further exacerbating inflationary pressures. Geopolitical conflicts directly impact risk assets, where Bitcoin, as "digital gold," should benefit, but in the short term, investors have turned to safer haven assets like physical gold, leading to outflows from crypto funds.

Furthermore, the probability of a US government shutdown has sharply increased. On January 26, the Polymarket market betting on the likelihood of another US government shutdown jumped from 8% to 80%, once again casting a shadow over risk assets.

Secondly, the earnings season for US tech stocks kicks off this week, adding another major uncertainty.

This week, several tech giants will report their fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 performance, including Microsoft on January 28, Meta and Tesla on January 28, and Apple on January 29.

Investors are skeptical about the ROI of AI spending and cloud business growth, for example, Microsoft's stock has slipped since the beginning of the year, with a focus on its Azure cloud service performance; Tesla's delivery volume has slowed, and attention is needed on the progress of its new product line. As for Apple and Meta, the market is expecting clear guidance on their AI and advertising businesses, otherwise, it may further weigh down their valuation.

These companies account for over 25% of the S&P 500 weight, and their performance directly impacts the Nasdaq index and overall market sentiment. If the earnings reports fall short of expectations, it will trigger a tech stock sell-off, affecting the crypto market.

There is a high correlation between crypto and tech stocks, so traders may be exiting early to wait and see for potential market volatility.

Follow-up Market

Cryptocurrency market analysis platform Santiment has released data on social media indicating that Bitcoin's price has fallen while gold and silver continue to soar. Nevertheless, Bitcoin's "whale" and "shark" addresses are still accumulating. The "whale" address holding 10-1,000 BTC: added 36,322 BTC over the past 9 days (+0.27%). The "shrimp" address holding less than 0.01 BTC: sold 132 BTC over the past 9 days (-0.28%).

Santiment states that the best time for a cryptocurrency asset to break through often occurs when the "smart money" is accumulating while retail investors are selling off. Apart from geopolitical factors, this fund flow pattern is currently building a long bullish technical divergence.

Placeholder partner also tweeted that they will focus on several entry points, such as $80,000, $74,000, and $70,000, saying, "I don't care about the end result. If the market bounces from here, I will continue to hold my existing positions and diversify my portfolio; if the market collapses, I will buy more BTC and other crypto assets."