2025's Biggest Misperception: Bitcoin Peaks in Q4, HODLing No Longer Effective
Original Article Title: Crypto Truths & Lies: Lessons from 2025
Original Article Author: Ignas, DeFi Research
Original Article Translation: Plain Blockchain
A year ago, I wrote "Crypto Truths & Lies: Lessons from 2025".
At that time, everyone was sharing higher Bitcoin price targets. I wanted to find a different framework to uncover areas where the public might be wrong and to differentiate. The goal was simple: to find ideas that were already present but overlooked, despised, or misunderstood.
Before sharing the 2026 edition, let's take a clear look back at what truly mattered in 2025. What we got right, what we got wrong, and what we should learn from it. If you don't examine your thinking, you're not investing, you're just guessing.
Quick Summary
"BTC Topped Out in Q4": Most people anticipated it, but it seemed too good to be true. Turns out they were right, and I was wrong (and paid the price for it). Unless BTC goes parabolic from now on and breaks the 4-year cycle pattern, I concede this round. "Retail Loves Memecoins":
Retail actually doesn't love cryptocurrency at all. They bought gold, silver, AI stocks, and anything that wasn't cryptocurrency. The supercycle of memecoins or AI agents did not materialize either.
"AI x Crypto Remains Strong": A mixed bag. Projects continue to deliver, the x402 standard keeps evolving, and funding persists. But tokens failed to sustain any upward momentum.
"NFT is Dead": Yes.
These are all easy to look back on. The real insights lie in the following five broader themes.
1. Spot ETF is the Floor, Not the Ceiling
Since March 2024, Bitcoin long-term holders (OG) have sold approximately 1.4 million BTC, worth around $121.17 billion.
Imagine what the crypto market would be like without ETFs: Despite the price drop, the inflow of funds into BTC ETFs remains positive ($26.9 billion).
The roughly $95 billion gap is why BTC has underperformed almost all macro assets. BTC itself is not the issue, and there's no need to delve into unemployment or manufacturing data to explain it—this is simply the "great rotation" of whales and "4-year cycle believers."
Moreso, Bitcoin's correlation with traditional risk assets like the Nasdaq has dropped to its lowest level since 2022 (-0.42). While many hope for an upward correlation break, in the long run, this is bullish as an asset sought by institutions for its non-correlated portfolio.
Signs indicate the supply shock has ended. Therefore, I dare to predict a BTC price of $174,000 in 2026 (equivalent to 10% of the gold market cap).
2. Airdrops Clearly Haven't "Disappeared"
The crypto community (CT) once again claimed airdrops had died. Yet in 2025, we saw nearly $4.5 billion in large airdrop distributions:
Story Protocol (IP): ~$1.4B
Berachain (BERA): ~$1.17B
Jupiter (JUP): ~$7.91M
Animecoin (ANIME): ~$7.11M
The change lies in: token fatigue, stronger rug pull detection, and downward valuations. You still need to "claim and dump" to maximize gains.
2026 will be a big year for airdrops, with heavyweight players like Polymarket, Metamask, Base (?), preparing to mint tokens. This won't be a year to stop clicking buttons but to stop blind betting. Airdrop "farming" will require focused efforts in heavy bags.
3. Fee Switch is Not the Engine of Price Surge, But the Baseline
My prediction is: Fee switch won't automatically drive up coin prices. The revenue generated by most protocols isn't enough to support their massive market caps.
"Fee switch doesn't affect how high a token can rise but sets a 'floor price.'"
Observing the projects on DeFillama's "Holder Income" ranking: Except for $HYPE, all high-yield-bearing Tokens have outperformed ETH (although ETH is now the benchmark everyone is challenging).
Surprisingly, $UNI. Uniswap finally flipped the switch and even burned 1 billion USD worth of Tokens. UNI initially surged 75%, but then retraced all gains.
Three revelations:
Token buybacks set a price floor, not a ceiling.
Everything is a trade this cycle (see UNI's surge and retracement).
Buybacks are only one side of the story; selling pressure (unlocking) must be considered, as most Tokens remain in low circulation.
4. Stablecoins dominate the mindshare, but "Agency Trading" is tough to monetize
Stablecoins are going mainstream. When I rented a scooter in Bali, they even requested payment with USDT on TRON.
Although USDT's dominance has fallen from 67% to 60%, its market cap continues to grow. Citibank predicts that the stablecoin market cap could reach between $19 trillion and $40 trillion by 2030.
By 2025, the narrative has shifted from "trading" to "payment infrastructure." However, the narrative around trading stablecoins is not easy: Circle's IPO saw a surge followed by a retracement, and other agency assets' performance has also been underwhelming.
A truth in 2025: Everything is just a trade.
Currently, crypto payment cards have surged due to their convenience in bypassing strict bank AML requirements. Every card swipe is a transaction on the chain. If by 2026 we can see direct peer-to-peer payments bypassing Visa/Mastercard, that will be a thousand-fold opportunity.
5. DeFi is more centralized than CeFi
Here is a bold claim: DeFi's business and TVL concentration is higher than traditional finance (CeFi).
Aave holds over 60% of the borrowing market share (for comparison, JPMorgan only holds 12% in the US).
L2 protocols are mostly billion-dollar unregulated multisigs.
Chainlink nearly monopolizes all price oracles in DeFi.
By 2025, the conflict between "centralized equity holders" and "Token Holders/DAOs" becomes apparent. Who truly owns the protocol, IP rights, and revenue streams? Aave's internal strife shows that Token Holders have less power than we think.
If "Labs" win in the end, many DAO Tokens will become illiquid. 2026 will be a crucial year in aligning equity with Token Holder interests.
Summary
2025 proved one thing: everything is a trade. The exit window is tiny. No Token has enduring belief.
As a result, 2025 marks the death of HODL culture, DeFi morphs into Onchain Finance, and with regulatory improvements, DAOs are also shedding their "pseudo-decentralization" facades.
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