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Can Meme Power DeFi Adoption? Can Notcoin Boost TON's Success?

LD Capital

2024-04-01 09:30

Read this article in 11 Minutes

In an overall assessment of the Notcoin project, it has received official endorsement from the TON team and has a large user base, making it a potential candidate for a breakout meme coin.

Original Article Title: "Notcoin, a Virally Spread Meme Coin, Can It Break Free from the TON Ecosystem?"

Original Article Author: Alfre, LD Capital

1. Built on the Foundation of a 9 Billion Monthly Active User TON

The Open Network (TON), formerly known as the Telegram Open Network, was created by the Telegram team in 2018. After facing SEC allegations of conducting an unregistered securities offering during the ICO era, the Telegram team paid a fine, reached a settlement, and abandoned the project. The community-driven TON Foundation has since taken over the development and operation of the network. Despite the nominal separation from Telegram, the two entities remain closely linked. TON has always been the only public blockchain officially supported by Telegram and maintains deep integration with the platform. Leveraging Telegram's vast user base and traffic, TON continues to benefit from this association. Telegram aims to build a decentralized digital ecosystem characterized by freedom and privacy through its support of TON.

Telegram's commitment to free speech and privacy has attracted a global user base, with registered users exceeding 1.3 billion and nearly 900 million monthly active users (MAU). Telegram holds a significant advantage in user acquisition within the Web3 space, thanks to its permissive speech environment and regulatory landscape. Almost all Web 3.0/Crypto projects operate communities on Telegram. The platform's user base is primarily concentrated in Asia, Europe, South America, and the Middle East, with a noticeable presence of retail investors. The demand for peer-to-peer payments is strong, making this user base an ideal target for Web3 conversion.

Recently, in addition to Telegram's founder Durov indicating plans for a possible IPO, Durov publicly announced on his personal channel the official sale channel for TON tokens. Telegram's advertising platform is set to open to advertisers from nearly a hundred new countries, ensuring swift and secure payment and withdrawal processes using the TON blockchain. Content creators will be able to monetize their Toncoin or reinvest it to promote and enhance their channels. These initiatives will accelerate the growth of the TON network, expanding the real-world use cases and applications of blockchain technology.

2. Viral Spread of Notcoin

Notcoin is a free and easy-to-use Telegram game where players earn coins by tapping on their phone screen. Since its launch on January 1, 2024, it has gained immense popularity. The current number of participants in the game exceeds 30 million, with a daily active count of 5 million, making it the fifth most popular channel on Telegram.

According to statements from the TON Foundation and external interviews, Notcoin is being built by Sasha Plotvinov, the founder of Open Builders, an organization that funds projects on the TON blockchain. Open Builders is associated with Tonstarter, which successfully raised $1.5 million in seed funding last year specifically to support TON-based projects. Additionally, TON's official Twitter account has retweeted Notcoin-related tweets multiple times, and Notcoin's official Twitter account currently has 1.5 million followers.

In early March, Notcoin introduced a feature that allows elite players to convert a large amount of in-game currency into NFT vouchers, which can be traded before their token's official release. Players can choose to exchange 10 million or 100 million in-game coins for NFT vouchers. These NFTs are now listed on the TON ecosystem NFT trading platform Getgems for early trading and pricing, and once the tokens are officially released on-chain, the NFTs can be redeemed for tokens.

According to a statement from Notcoin's game representative, the token generation event and subsequent airdrop to players will take place at the end of March or the beginning of April.

3. Comparison of Relevant Data

According to data as of the 27th, there are approximately 500,000 Notcoin NFTs in circulation, currently priced at one 10M = 9 TON (calculated at 5 U), with a market value of around $22.5 million. The total trading volume is 2 million TON, with a trading volume of approximately $10 million.

Starting from March 15, trading volume of Notcoin NFTs became active. On the 25th, the recent highest trading volume was nearly 25,000 units, with an average price of 10M = 6.7 TON and a transaction amount of $837,500. On the 26th, 21,000 units were traded with an average price of 10M = 9.9 TON and a transaction amount of $1,039,500. The highest transaction price occurred on the 13th at 10M = 66 TON, and the lowest price occurred on the 20th at 10M = 3.7 TON.

Bybit announced on Monday of this week that starting at 10:00 AM GMT on Monday, the Telegram-based meme coin Notcoin ($NOT) will be listed on its pre-market trading platform. According to data on the 27th, the pre-market trading price on Bybit is 10M = $60–90, showing a significant premium compared to the NFT market.

Comparing with the meme coin FISH, currently ranked first in the TON ecosystem, which has a market value of $39 million and a 24-hour trading volume of 2.55 million, Notcoin, in the NFT trading phase, has a market value and trading volume about half of FISH's.

IV. Conclusion

The current surge in the price of meme coins has become an important way to break the circle in the public chain ecosystem. The TON ecosystem is currently in the early stage of development, but with the huge user base of Telegram backing it, its development potential is undeniable. Compared to the development of the ecosystem total value locked (TVL) project, meme-driven hype is a more easily achievable short-term method. Looking at the Notcoin project as a whole, it has received official support from TON and has a huge user base, making it a potential choice for a circle-breaking meme coin. However, the risk lies in the current lack of clarity in the tokenomics. There are already over 20 million U.S. dollars worth of NFTs circulating before the second-level launch, posing significant selling pressure upon release. Nevertheless, based on fundamentals, the project is believed to have potential in the medium term.