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「The 'First Humanoid Robot Stock': How to Properly Value RoboTree?」

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According to the IPO schedule, it is widely predicted in the market that TreeTech may officially land on the A-share stock exchange for trading as early as next week.

Original Title: "How Much is the 'First Stock of Humanoid Robot' US Tree Technology Worth?"

On August 10, US Tree Technology, known as the "first stock of domestic humanoid robot," officially opened its subscription channel. On August 11, the online and offline lottery results of US Tree Technology were announced. The online lottery rate was only 0.01809759%, which is relatively low among the 93 new stocks listed this year. The offline investors' allocation ratio was 0.03341824%, ranking sixth among the 46 listed new stocks with offline subscriptions this year.

For comparison, the new stock with the highest online lottery rate this year is "the leading domestic storage manufacturer" Longsys Technology, listed in July, with a rate of 0.47141739%. The online lottery rate of US Tree Technology is 3.8% of Longsys Technology, and the offline lottery rate is 19% of Longsys Technology.

Such a rare lottery probability has also made many people full of expectations for the profit space of US Tree Technology after the opening. Calculated at an opening market value of 200 billion yuan, an investment of about 75,400 yuan for 500 shares will yield an estimated profit of about 170,000 yuan; if calculated based on the average first-day gain of 466.61% for STAR Market new stocks this year, the profit from one allotment will be as high as 350,000 yuan.

After the IPO, can US Tree Technology's market value soar from 61 billion to 200 billion yuan? Can US Tree Technology's founder, Wang Xingxing, ascend to the "STAR Market's richest person" throne? What are the trading opportunities after the opening? How will US Tree Technology's subsequent market trend be? These questions will be explored based on the existing information.

Lottery Results Announced: Oversubscribed by over 8288 Times, Only 19414 Allotment Numbers

On the evening of August 11, US Tree Technology released the preliminary results of the IPO offline allocation and the online lottery, with a total of approximately 19,414 retail investor allotment numbers and 22.65 million shares allocated to 313 institutional investors offline.

This online subscription attracted a total of 9.7846 million retail investors, setting a new record for the number of participants in the STAR Market, surpassing the previous record of 9.4288 million for Longsys Technology; the effective subscription of shares reached 53.637 billion, and the online preliminary effective subscription ratio reached an astonishing 8288.82 times.

Due to the intense subscription, US Tree Technology initiated a callback mechanism, reallocating 10% from offline to online, deducting the final strategic placement portion, i.e., 3.236 million shares were reallocated from offline to online to meet the enthusiasm of online retail investors. The final lottery rate increased from the initial 0.012% to approximately 0.018%, but this rate still hit a new low in the history of the STAR Market.

Excluding the online and offline subscription portion, Yushu Technology's strategic placement list can also be described as a "luxury lineup."

IPO Strategic Placement List: Includes SOEs, State-Owned Funds, Tech Giants, AI Companies, and Multiple Securities Firms

In the deeply integrated "strategic placement investors" list of Yushu Technology, national social security fund-related organizations, AI company DeepSeek, China Petrochemical Corporation, State Grid Corporation of China, enterprises under China Telecom, Tencent subsidiaries, CITIC Securities, and other institutions are prominently featured.

According to Wang Xingxing himself, DeepSeek will provide Yushu Technology with market-competitive business cooperation plans, including but not limited to providing technical support in model architecture solutions, AI cluster construction, data center operations (if any) based on demand and business operations. The latter belongs to large enterprises with strategic cooperation relationships with the company in operational business, capable of conducting strategic cooperation with the company, possessing important resources in the same industry or the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain to enhance the company's market competitiveness. Other strategic placement investment institutions also have similar roles, with CITIC Securities even deeply participating in the form of "equity investment + IPO follow-up investment" and five securities firms indirectly participating as LPs.

Externally, Yushu Technology has received optimism from multiple institutions such as SOEs, state-owned funds, tech giants, AI companies, and securities firms.

In addition, Yushu Technology employees have also initiated two rounds of asset management plans to participate in the strategic placement: Asset Management Plan 1 raised $218.5 million; Asset Management Plan 2 raised $53.1 million. Among them, the participants in Asset Management Plan 1 include 161 people, including Chief Financial Officer Wang Feng; the participants in Asset Management Plan 2 include 10 people, including Chairman Wang Xingxing, with Wang Xingxing subscribing for $15 million. It can be seen that Yushu employees are betting on the company's long-term development with real money.

IPO Data Overview: "Fastest IPO Approval Target of the Year," Total Fundraising Amount of $6.1 billion, Initial Circulation Approximately 7.36%

Yushu's issue price is $150.8 per share, issuing 40.4464 million shares, accounting for 10% of the post-issue total share capital, raising approximately $6.099 billion, 45.15% more than the original plan of $4.202 billion. It took only 73 days from acceptance on March 20 to approval, and less than 5 months until the IPO application on August 10, setting the record for the fastest IPO approval this year.

Regarding the lock-up restrictions on Unitree Technology's secondary market issuance of shares, according to Unitree Technology's announcement yesterday, the quantity of shares issued in the secondary market after the strategic placement callback is 25.886148 million shares, accounting for approximately 80.00% of the issuance quantity after deducting the final strategic placement quantity. Of these, 90% of the shares have no restriction period and can be freely traded from the day the shares are listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange; 10% of the shares have a 6-month restriction period, which starts from the day the shares are listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Furthermore, according to previous data calculations based on a post-issue total share capital of approximately 404 million shares, the tradable shares on the first day of listing are approximately 29.77 million shares, accounting for about 7.36% of the total share capital, with over 90% of the shares being in a lock-up state.

Pre-market Pricing: Indicative price per share around $87.8, Market Cap $35.47 billion

Data from trade.xyz shows that Unitree Technology's IPO pre-market perpetual contract price is around $87.8 per share. Based on a total share capital of 404 million shares, the market cap is approximately $35.47 billion, equivalent to about 239 billion RMB.

Market Prediction: Probability of Unitree Technology's closing market cap exceeding 200 billion RMB currently stands at 75%

A market prediction platform has also forecasted Unitree Technology's closing market cap. Data from predict.fun platform indicates:

· Probability of Unitree Technology's closing market cap exceeding 200 billion RMB is currently at 75%;

· Probability of Unitree Technology's closing market cap exceeding 250 billion RMB is currently at 43%;

· Probability of Unitree Technology's closing market cap exceeding 300 billion RMB is currently at 18%.

Per Lot Profit Range: Varies from 170,000 RMB to 350,000 RMB, Wang Xingxing Could Become the "Science and Technology Innovation Board Richest Person"

It is estimated that if we compare it to the average gain of A-share IPOs since 2026, which is as high as 276.04% on the first day of listing, the profit per lot of Unitree Technology is expected to exceed 200,000 RMB; if we compare it to the average gain of 466.61% on the first day of the Science and Technology Innovation Board within the year, the profit per lot could reach 351,800 RMB.

If Unitree Technology surges to a market cap of 200 billion upon opening, with a corresponding share price of around 500 RMB, the market value of a lot of 500 shares would rise to 250,000 RMB, with a paper profit of approximately 170,000 RMB.

Upon the company's IPO, YuTree Technology's founder, Wang Xingxing, directly and indirectly holds a stake of approximately 30% in the company. If YuTree Technology's market value were to rise to over $200 billion, his stake value would reach $60 billion, surpassing MuXi Corporation's Chen Weiliang directly and becoming the richest individual on China's Sci-Tech Innovation Board. The outlook at the moment is quite hopeful.

IPO Fund Utilization Plan: 85% of Funds Allocated to R&D, Focusing on the Full Robot Industry Chain

Regarding the IPO funds usage direction, 85% of YuTree Technology's raised funds will be invested in various R&D projects. The four main directions include Intelligent Robot Model R&D at $2.022 billion, Robot Body R&D at $1.110 billion, New Smart Robot Product Development at $445 million, and Smart Robot Manufacturing Base Construction at $624 million.

YuTree Technology estimates that in the first half of 2026, the company's operating income will be between $1.052 billion and $1.128 billion, a year-on-year growth of 35.62% to 45.41%; the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company is expected to be $258 million to $306 million; and the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be $236 million to $283 million. Nevertheless, YuTree Technology's current sky-high 219x PE ratio still cannot hide the controversy, and there is significant divergence in the market's valuation of YuTree Technology.

Market Valuation Controversy: Will it be $100 billion, $200 billion, or even $400 billion and above?

At present, the market value expectations for YuTree Technology are relatively broad, with institutions and individual investors providing a wide range.

Looking at the revenue data from the past three years, from 2023 to 2025, YuTree Technology's revenue climbed from $159 million to $1.699 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 226.78%; non-GAAP net profit turned from a loss of $18.019 million to a profit of $591 million, and the main gross profit margin increased from 44.22% to 60.13%, with the humanoid robot gross profit margin reaching as high as 63.18%. In 2025, operating net cash flow was $670 million, cash on hand was $1.419 billion, and there was almost no interest-bearing debt. Although in the first quarter of 2026, the company's revenue was $423 million, with a year-on-year growth rate dropping from 332.64% in 2025 to 68.49%, and non-GAAP net profit decreasing to $40.2536 million, a 52.55% year-on-year decline. However, Wang Xingxing's explanation for this is "a significant increase in revenue base, a gradual easing of industry heat, and increasingly fierce market competition." The lavish marketing expenses during the Spring Festival are also part of the reason.

Market Cap Estimation Range: From ¥109 billion to over ¥400 billion

Ping An International, based on Yushu Technology's status as the "first stock of humanoid robots," its leading global market share, and a high growth rate expectation, has given a ¥109 billion market cap forecast, corresponding to a 32x target P/S ratio for 2026. Some market institutions have provided an optimistic estimate of ¥200 billion to ¥300 billion based on the future industry space.

CITIC has set a bullish target for Yushu Technology to grow to approximately 20x P/S ratio in 6 to 12 months. If Yushu meets this condition, revenue needs to grow to ¥11.5 billion, which is about 7 times the 2025 revenue of ¥1.7 billion.

"Stock God with White Hair" Serenity stated that Yushu Technology's IPO received over 8000 times oversubscription from retail investors, reflecting an "extremely huge" market demand for a pure humanoid robot company. Serenity believes that Yushu Technology's Pre-IPO perpetual contract market valuation has already shown high expectations. If the post-listing market cap reaches over $30 billion, it may further increase market attention to the leading humanoid robot company in the U.S. in the coming one to two weeks.

Yu Wenchao, early investor in Yushu Technology and partner at Dunhong Asset, has provided the most daring estimation: "A post-listing valuation exceeding ¥200 billion is very reasonable, and I think it is possible to exceed ¥400 billion in the short term. Compared to overseas companies in the same category, this valuation is not exaggerated."

In response to the question raised during the IPO roadshow about whether the stock would break, Yushu Technology's founder, Wang Xingxing, replied, "Please pay attention to the company's stock price trend after listing." His words were quite confident, leaving a sense of anticipation for everyone.

Wang Xingxing Responds: Humanoid Robot Shipment Volume Ranked First Globally, "Brain" Weakness Addressed

Regarding the controversy during the roadshow about the "219x non-GAAP P/E ratio far exceeding the industry's average of 38.56x," Wang Xingxing stated that based on the 2025 non-GAAP net profit, the IPO price (¥150.5) corresponds to a P/E ratio of 92.92x; the company operates in a vast intelligent robotics industry space, and the pricing is in line with the business situation and industry development.

In 2025, Yushu's humanoid robot shipment volume exceeded 5500 units, excluding wheeled dual-arm robots, and Wang Xingxing claimed that the shipment volume ranked first globally.

Facing the current questioning of the "brain" deficit, Wang Xingxing stated that UTree has laid out two paths: WMA (World Model Architecture) and VLA Architecture (Vision-Language-Action Model), with the overall R&D capabilities and technological maturity ranking among the top in the world.

Furthermore, some investors raised a sharp question, "Is UTree Technology's robot a remote-controlled toy?" Wang Xingxing's response to this was to draw a comparison between the humanoid robot industry and the smart driving industry, pointing out: "The remote control is the highest priority safety redundancy, just like a smart driving car equipped with a steering wheel and brake pedal. In extremely complex terrains, communication failures, or logic errors, the operator can use it to emergency stop and take evasive action."

Currently, according to the listing schedule, the market generally predicts that UTree Technology may be the first to officially land on the A-share market for trading as early as next week.

Looking at UTree Technology's revenue data from the past three years, the market currently has high expectations for its market cap to surge to 200 billion yuan; combining pre-market contract pricing data on Hyperliquid (trade.xyz), the likelihood of a surge to 250 billion yuan market cap and then falling back to 190-210 billion yuan is higher.