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Week 2 on-chain data: Bitcoin selling pressure has paused, and there may be a 30% premium opportunity in the next two years

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Preliminary estimates are that in the next one and a half to two and a half years, there will be an inflow of more than 100 billion to 200 billion US dollars. The follow-up market can be enlarged three to four times in the same proportion, which means tha

Original Title: "Brilliant Youth, Wind and Clouds Rise | WTR 1.15"

Source: WTR Research Institute

This Week Review

This week from January 8th to January 15th, the highest price of Bingtang Orange was near $48969, and the lowest was close to $41500, with a fluctuation range of about 15.25%.

Observe the chip distribution chart. There is a large volume of chips traded around 43000, which will provide certain support or pressure.

• Analysis:

1. 39000-43000, approximately 2.01 million pieces;

2. 34000~38000 approximately 1.23 million pieces;

• The probability of not breaking below 36,000-38,000 in the short term is 80%.

• The probability of not breaking through 45000-47000 in the short term is 60%.

Important News

Economic News

1. Today, the US released data showing that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for December had an annual rate of 1%, significantly lower than the expected value of 1.3%. The month-on-month rate for December was -0.1%, lower than the expected value of 0.10%.

2. Yesterday, multiple members of the Federal Reserve spoke out, discussing not only the timing of interest rate cuts, but also beginning to frequently mention adjustments to the pace of balance sheet reduction.

3. The probability of interest rate cuts in March has increased instead of decreased. Traders have raised their expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024 from 154 basis points to 160 basis points.

4. A US bank claims that the forward rate curve shows that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates 6 to 7 times this year.

Encryption ecosystem news

1. The remaining time until BTC halving is less than 100 days, expected to occur on April 22, 2024. The block reward will decrease from 6.25 BTC to

3.125 BTC. 2. Coinshares report shows that the average production cost of each BTC will be $37,856 after halving.

3. US stock broker Robinhood has added support for BTC spot ETF trading. Robinhood announced that 11 BTC spot ETFs are now available for trading to all of its US clients.

4. Charles Schwab announced the launch of spot BTC ETF on its platform in Jiaxin Wealth Management.

5. Coindesk reports that banking giant UBS Group will allow some clients to trade BTC spot ETFs.

6. During his speech at Space, Musk stated: "SpaceX owns a large amount of BTC and still holds Dogecoin, which is the most popular cryptocurrency in the industry."

7. Preliminary data shows that on the first day of the BTC spot ETF listing, a total of $721 million in capital inflows was attracted, with Bitwise's BTC spot ETF attracting $238 million in capital inflows, Fidelity attracting $227 million in capital inflows, and BlackRock attracting $111 million in capital inflows.

8. Coinbase acts as a broker and trading partner for almost all ETF issuers, including Grayscale.

9. Edelman stated that investment advisors will invest $150 billion in spot BTC ETFs in the next two to three years.

Long-term Insight: Used to observe our long-term situation; Bull market / Bear market / Structural change / Neutral state.

Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.Short-term observation: Used to analyze the short-term market conditions; as well as the possibility of certain directions and events occurring under certain conditions. Long-term insight.• New chip status added.

(New Address and Active Address)

Newly added and active addresses are at a low level. The rating of spot and selling pressure structure: overall in a state of moderate inflow, with moderate selling pressure.

(Net Head of Bingtang Orange Exchange)

The pancake is still there. After the ETF, there was a large influx of selling pressure, and the current situation has already digested some of the inflow chips.

(Net Head of E-Tower Exchange)

The second cake is in a state of cumulative inflow of medium flow.

(High weight suppression as shown in the figure below)

Currently there is no high-weight pressure.

Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has lost a significant amount compared to last week, while stablecoin purchasing power has lost a small amount.

(Global purchasing power status)

After the expected ETF, global purchasing power has greatly declined. The purchasing power of the Americas, which has a higher weight, has approached negative values, and the purchasing power of Asia and Europe has declined to negative values.

(Net Head of USDT Exchange as shown below)

USDT exchange net position is in a state of large outflow. Off-chain transaction data rating: there is a willingness to buy at 40,000; there is a willingness to sell at 45,000.

(Coinbase off-chain data as shown below)

There is a willingness to purchase at prices around 38000, 39000, and 40000.

There is a willingness to sell at around 48000.

There is a willingness to purchase at prices around 38000, 39000, and 40000.

There is a willingness to sell at prices around 44000, 45000, and 48000.

(Bitfinex off-chain data as shown below)

There is a willingness to purchase at a price around 39000;

This Week's Summary

Future short-term risks:

1. The unlocking and sale of grayscale currencies.

2. Binance fined for Windy's cash-out pressure.

ETF finally passed, which means that encrypted assets have officially entered the mainstream of the world. From never paying attention to being fully in the middle, there is still a small amount of profit space and premium space.

Preliminary estimates suggest that in the next year and a half to two and a half years, there will be approximately 10-200 billion US dollars of capital inflows.

With the wind disk, it is possible to enlarge by three to four times in proportion, which means that there may be a 30% premium opportunity in the next two years.

ETF's buying funds will become the engine of the bull market.

From a macro perspective, the number of interest rate cuts this year is not small. It is recommended to invest in risky assets such as US stocks.

AI is over-matched, while encryption is relatively optimistic. These two concepts may have opportunities beyond certain macro trends.