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Week 26 On-chain Data: Current selling pressure is low, profit-taking positions increase, and mid-term pressure may increase.

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Source: "WTR" Research Institute

This Week Review

This week from June 26th to July 3rd, the highest price of BTC was around $31,282 and the lowest was close to $29,500, with a fluctuation range of about 6.4%.

Observing the chip distribution chart, there is a large volume of chips traded around 30,000, which will provide some support or resistance.

• Analysis:

1. 26000-31000, approximately 3.57 million pieces;

2. 20000~25000 approximately 1.68 million coins;

• The probability of not breaking below 24000~26000 in the short term is 85%.

• The probability of not breaking through 32,000 to 34,000 in the short term is 60%.

Important News

Economic News

1. Australian Treasury officials have stated that the country's token mapping will be 'technology neutral'.

2. Token issuers in Japan are exempt from 30% cryptocurrency tax on paper profits.

3. Analysts are studying how the potential economic crisis in China may affect Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

4. The final annualized quarterly growth rate of US real GDP for the first quarter was 2%, higher than the expected value of 1.40% and higher than the previous value of 1.30%.

a. The core PCE price index for the first quarter was 4.9%, lower than the expected value of 5.00% and lower than the previous value of 5.00%.

b. The first quarter GDP was significantly revised upward from 1.3% to 2%, while the core PCE inflation index slightly decreased and the initial jobless claims decreased significantly.

Encryption ecosystem news

1. Binance has revoked its decision to delist privacy coins in Europe.

2. Bybit has obtained a license approval from Cyprus, which will strengthen the adoption of cryptocurrencies in the country.

3. According to reports, HSBC has launched cryptocurrency services in Hong Kong.

4. Binance plans to make the United Arab Emirates its 'focus' for future operations.

5. zkSync plans to release a new 'Hyperchains' network by the end of this year.

6. A spokesperson for the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) stated that they plan to update and resubmit their application for a Bitcoin ETF based on spot prices.

7. The Hong Kong Education Bureau has launched a HKD 100 million innovation and technology education fund to support teaching in areas such as Web3 and generative AI.

Long-term Insight: Used to observe our long-term situation; Bull market / Bear market / Structural change / Neutral state.

Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.

Short-term observation: used to analyze the short-term market situation; as well as the possibility of certain directions and events occurring under certain conditions.

Long-term Insight

• Unsettled emotional changes are more pronounced

• Profit margin percentage

• Long-term participant exchange inflow volume

(The following figure shows the change of anxiety emotions.)

Currently, there hasn't been much risk aversion in the market for a long time. Risk aversion started to ease about a month ago.

(Profit Profit Percentage in the following figure)

The overall profit share of the current market value is increasing.

Already close to 80%, currently at 77%, and historically in the bull market phase, the market price tends to enter a temporary pause or even a phase top around 82%-90%.

The profit margin of the market backlog is increasing, and the growth space in terms of time and space may become relatively limited.

If there is further market value growth in the short to medium term, there may be a certain degree of digestion problem to face.

(See chart below for the inflow of long-term participants into the exchange)

Currently, long-term participants have not injected much selling pressure into exchanges or the market.

Mid-term exploration

• Network sentiment positivity

• Short-term profit percentage compound model

• WTR-Risk Model 1

• High-weight selling pressure state group

• Seller-Risk Ratio

(Positive online sentiment in the following image)

From the perspective of circulation within the industry, there is still a certain level of activity.

Compared to before, this may be an improvement in status. The current judgment in the market is that it is in a relatively good state.

However, what is currently worrying may not be the issue of emotional positivity.

Possibly in terms of structure, it refers to the ability to accommodate the overall profitability situation, that is, the market's ability to bear the profit-taking pressure.

(The following image shows the short-term profit percentage compound model.)

The market has continuously touched the short-term profit threshold of 97.5% at this stage, indicating doubts about the current market's upper limit acceptance capacity.

However, from the perspective of short-term investors injecting funds continuously, there may be a certain possibility of an upward trend in the current market, but the risks are also significant. If excessive profits lead to the majority of participants exiting the market, it will become unstable.

(See Figure WTR-Risk Factor 1 below)

Blue line: Mixer BTC output

Yellow line: BTC risk coefficient

The risk factor of BTC is in a certain gentle downward trend, but the mixer has a certain amount of output, which may indicate that the market is not very stable.

In situations where emotional positivity is high, it may also lead to certain differences, causing fluctuations in the market.

(The high-weight dumping state group in the following figure)

The high-weight selling pressure group shows a consistent downward trend, and from the current situation, they may not be the focus of selling pressure in the market.

The current concern in the market may not be selling pressure, but rather upward momentum.

(Seller-Risk Ratio)

The seller has realized the sale and currently there is a turning point in the downward trend. The current selling pressure may still be relatively small, and it is not a consistent application of selling pressure.

Compared to bearish pressure, bullish pressure has a stronger performance, and the market consistently relies on upward momentum to drive it forward.

Short-term observation

• Derivative risk coefficient

• Option intention transaction ratio

• Derivative trading volume

• Option Implied Volatility

• Profit and loss transfer amount

• New addresses and active addresses have been added.

• Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange

• High-weight selling pressure

：
• Global purchasing power status

• Stablecoin exchange net position

• Underlying exchange data

Derivative rating: the risk coefficient is in the danger zone and the risk has increased.

(Derivative Risk Factor in the following figure)

The current risk coefficient is in the danger zone, which also indicates an increase in market risk preference.

The risk coefficient may swing upwards after hitting the bottom, resulting in increased bullish pressure and market correction.

However, considering other indicators, the probability of a significant pullback is not high.

(See the option intention transaction ratio in the following figure)

During the process of high-level price fluctuations, the trading volume of options and the proportion of put options have both decreased significantly.

Explanation: The current put protection ratio is maintained at the median level.

(See chart for trading volume of derivatives)

The current trading volume of derivatives has fallen to a low level, indicating that after the price has risen to the current stage, derivative traders are more inclined to wait and see.

(See Figure Implied Volatility of Options)

The current implied volatility of options has not shown significant fluctuations, indicating that current option traders are more inclined to wait and see.

Emotional state rating: cautious bias towards more.

(Profit and Loss Transfer Amount in the following figure)

The transfer amount of losses is still at a relatively low level, indicating that there is no selling behavior of loss chips at the current price level.

At the same time, observing the chip chart, the accumulated chip volume in the higher price range is also relatively small, so if the price remains relatively stable, the transfer of losses may continue to be stable.

At the same time, observe the profit transfer amount, which may face the problem of insufficient upward momentum in the future.

(The following image shows the newly added address and active address)

The number of newly added addresses has significantly decreased, while the number of active addresses remains relatively stable. Overall, the market activity is good at present.

Spot and selling pressure structure rating: Overall, there is a large outflow state, and selling pressure has decreased.

(Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange as shown below)

The net position of Da Bing Exchange shows a significant outflow, indicating that the current selling pressure is not high.

(Net Position of E-Tai Futures Exchange as shown in the following figure)

The net position of E exchange is showing a cumulative outflow state.

(The following image shows high-weight dumping)

The current market is not experiencing any significant selling pressure from high-weighted investors.

Purchasing Power Rating: Global purchasing power has rebounded slightly, and stablecoin purchasing power has also slightly rebounded.

(Global purchasing power status in the following figure)

Unlike last week, the purchasing power is mainly from Europe, while the purchasing power from America has weakened compared to last week, and the purchasing power from Asia has turned from negative to positive.

(Net Position of USDC Exchange as shown below)

The net position of USDC on the exchange shows an accumulated outflow state.

(Net Position of USDT Exchange as shown below)

The net position of USDT exchanges shows a moderate inflow of funds.

Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 28000; there is a willingness to sell at 32000.

(See Coinbase off-chain data below)

There is a willingness to purchase at prices around 25000, 28000, and 29000.

There is a willingness to sell at prices around 33,000, 35,000, and 37,000.

(Binance off-chain data in the following figure)

There is a willingness to purchase at prices around 24000, 26000, 28000, and 30000.

There is a willingness to sell around the price range of 31000 and 32000.

(See Bitfinex off-chain data below)

This week's summary:

Summary of News:

The current data indicates a strong economy and employment, with inflation remaining low. This suggests an increased possibility of two future interest rate hikes, while the likelihood of a recession has decreased somewhat.

On-chain Long-term Insight:

1. About a month ago, the risk aversion sentiment began to ease;

2. The profit margin of the market backlog is increasing. If the market value continues to grow in the short term, the growth space in terms of time and space may become relatively limited.

3. Long-term participants have not injected much selling pressure into the exchange, but rather have adopted a wait-and-see attitude.

• Market positioning:

The market is not in panic, but profit-taking is increasing, which may lead to greater mid-term digestion pressure.

Mid-term exploration on-chain:

1. The current on-chain is in a relatively active state;

2. Short-term participants inject a certain amount of supply into the market, but the market may reach the threshold of 97.5% short-term profit at any time.

3. BTC risk factor has decreased, and the mixer has a certain output;

4. High weight selling pressure group decline;

5. The situation where the seller does not appear to have sold.

• Market positioning:

Test

The market may be in a state of accumulation and sprinting, with relatively low selling pressure, but the risk still lies in the market's ability to absorb profits.

On-chain short-term observation:

1. The risk factor is in the danger zone, with a slight increase in risk.

2. The newly added active addresses are at a moderate level, and the market activity is good.

3. Market sentiment rating: cautiously bullish.

4. The overall net position of the exchange shows a large outflow, and selling pressure has decreased.

5. The global purchasing power has rebounded slightly, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has also slightly rebounded.

6. Sub-chain transaction data shows a willingness to buy at the 28000 price level and a willingness to sell at the 32000 price level.

7. The probability of not breaking below 24000~26000 in the short term is 85%.

8. The probability of not breaking through 32,000 to 34,000 in the short term is 60%.

• Market positioning:

Market risk appetite is increasing, and there are some positive signals, but there are still differences, and there may be limited upward momentum. Be cautious and biased towards the long side.

Strategy recommendation:

Maintain positions and hedge opportunistically.

Risk Warning

The above are all market discussions and explorations, and do not constitute directional opinions on investment; please be cautious and prevent market black swan risks.