Author: Duoduo, LD Capital

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has been performing poorly, with continuous outflows of funds. Bitcoin and Ethereum have low volatility and are in a downward oscillation phase, with low trading volume. Existing funds are mainly concentrated in individual projects for short-term speculation. So, how can we find trading opportunities in the funding market?

The author observed and tracked the short-term funding situation of TRB (Tellor Tributes, providing oracle services), trying to find some signals before the start of the uptrend; and then understood the fundamental situation, mainly to see whether there are bullish or bearish factors. From August 25th to the early morning of August 28th, the TRB token price rose from $9.6 to a high of $16, an increase of nearly 66%, and then entered a correction.

One, funding situation

First, let's look at the basic information of the token. The total supply of the token is approximately 2.49 million, with a circulation of 2.48 million, which is basically in a fully circulating state.

The top ten holdings as of August 26th are as follows, with Binance holding over 43% of the tokens, indicating a high level of token concentration.

After the sharp drop on August 18th, the price of TRB entered the bottom price range of this year and also the bottom range of 2021. After a few days of volatility, the daily chart once again found support near $9.5.

On August 21st, it was observed that there was a large amount of on-chain transfer, the highest level since January this year, which was much higher than previous data. At the same time, the price did not undergo significant changes and remained around $10. We believe that someone may be building positions on the chain at this time, so we will further monitor changes in contract trading volume and positions. However, abnormal on-chain transfers do not necessarily represent building behavior and need to be considered in conjunction with the token's price range, whether there are abnormal events, subsequent trading volume, and price changes.

On the morning of August 26th, it was observed that the contract trading volume and open interest were steadily increasing. At the same time, the price broke through the upper boundary of the bottom price range of the past 4 hours.

The following is the derivative data on the morning of August 26th. The trading volume of 24-hour contracts increased by 151%, and the contract open interest increased by 93%. The position of large account holders is long, while the long-short ratio of accounts is 0.96, indicating that there are a large number of retail investors shorting. Therefore, we believe that there is a high probability of TRB token rising in the short term due to the influx of funds.

Over the next two days, TRB's contract trading volume and open interest both saw a significant increase. In the past 24 hours, its contract trading volume was $1.6 billion and its open interest was approximately $68 million.

The following figure shows the changes in the major indicators of TRB contracts as of August 28. It can be seen that the open interest has been continuously increasing until the early morning of August 28. A significant short liquidation occurred when the price hit $16, accompanied by a decrease in open interest. Subsequently, the open interest changed from an increasing trend to a decreasing trend, and the price also fluctuated downwards. The change in funding rate reached the maximum negative premium after the price hit $16.

Currently, large positions are still in a long state. The long-short position ratio is 0.3452, indicating that a large number of retail investors are participating in short selling. The funding rate is still at a negative premium, but has returned to a more normal level.

二、基本面情况

Translation:

2. Basic Situation

Understand the basic information of the project, confirm the current status of the project, and whether there are obvious advantages or risks.

Tellor Tributes is a project launched in 2019, which belongs to a decentralized oracle protocol. It incentivizes an open, permissionless network for data reporting and validation, ensuring that data can be provided by anyone and verified by everyone.

Tellor uses a mining mechanism to implement an Oracle system, which realizes a decentralized off-chain data query mechanism. The entire system is composed of a network of data providers (miners), who competitively add data points to the on-chain database through the "Tributes" (TRB) token incentive system.

TRB adopts a token issuance model that combines POS and POW, with no fixed token supply. Nodes stake TRB tokens, complete POW puzzle challenges, and the first 5 nodes to unlock submit data can receive TRB token rewards. Starting from ETH block height 9619370, the block reward decreases by 0.003% per block until it reaches 1 TRB, after which it remains unchanged. At this point, each block produces 5.5 tokens, with an inflation rate of 17%. The year 2021 has entered the 1 TRB reward stage.

According to the current circulation, the annual inflation rate is 17%, which means there will be 420,000 new tokens added each year and 35,000 new tokens added each month.

The community is still maintaining active development and community interaction. The main files on Github were updated 3 days ago, with a high frequency of updates. There are 32.5K followers on Twitter, with 1488 posts, and tweets are posted on most weekdays, indicating a high level of activity. There are 1.28k subscribers on YouTube, with 229 videos, and weekly development meetings are posted, with the latest being last week's meeting. There are 4.7K followers on Discord, with dozens of recent daily messages in the discussion area, and a moderate level of activity. The latest blog post was updated on August 9, 2023.

Business development is average. According to the official website, the currently deployed public chains or layer 2 solutions are shown in the following figure, including new popular L2 solutions such as op/arb/base.

The project party has not yet disclosed the following specific information: the number and distribution of nodes participating in the network and providing data reporting services; the actual DAPP using the oracle; the total amount of data provided by the oracle; and the situation of service fee income.

Overall, Tellor Tributes is in a maintenance phase with no major breakthroughs or progress in technology and business, and the project lacks competitive advantages.

Three, Summary

Tellor Tributes (TRB) short-term price increase is mainly driven by funds. After the surge in the early morning of August 28th, the position volume decreased and the price also showed a significant decline.

When looking for trading opportunities in the current market, you can focus on the following points:

1. Whether the price range of the token (already listed on Binance's futures contracts) is located in the bottom area of a certain period of time.

2. The concentration level of token distribution and who holds the majority of the tokens.

3. Has there been any abnormal on-chain activity recently?

4. Has there been a significant increase in token contract trading volume and holdings, and has it been maintained for a period of time?

5. What is the specific situation of the long-short ratio of the large account position and the long-short ratio of the number of positions held?

6. If the position volume continues to increase and the price drops after a spike, it may form a short-term price top.

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