Thought by friend.tech: "Pricing model" determines product growth direction

Original author: kriss, Continue Capital

Simple and elegant, can achieve everything in life.

Does the blockchain field also generate everything from a similar "e=mc^2"?

Uniswap's x*y=k?

nft 的 price=floor price ？

Translation:

nft's price=floor price?

先按下不表

Translation:

Let's not mention it for now.

rst 应用，它的核心是使用了 ZKS 协议，这是一种零知识证明系统，可以实现隐私保护和数据安全。同时，friend.tech 还采用了 STARK 技术，这是一种零知识证明的新兴技术，可以实现高效的验证和隐私保护。此外，friend.tech 还使用了 SCROLL 协议，这是一种可扩展的区块链协议，可以实现高效的交易处理和数据存储。

The following is the translation:

Let's take a look at friend.tech, a popular social-first application based on ZKS protocol, which is a zero-knowledge proof system that ensures privacy protection and data security. Additionally, friend.tech also utilizes STARK technology, an emerging zero-knowledge proof technology that enables efficient verification and privacy protection. Furthermore, friend.tech employs SCROLL protocol, a scalable blockchain protocol that enables efficient transaction processing and data storage.

，加密行业从业者是指在加密货币、区块链等领域从事相关工作的人员。他们致力于研究和开发加密技术，以保障数字资产的安全性和隐私性。加密行业从业者需要具备扎实的技术功底和丰富的实践经验，同时还需要不断学习和探索新的技术和应用场景。

1. When you have registered your account and linked your Twitter, you will execute two transactions:

The first step: "Deposit more than 0.01 eth into your own account address" to activate your wallet;

Second transaction: You automatically spent 0eth to buy your own share (which was renamed "key" on August 22nd).

Then you realize that you have been...

Securitized!

All people can buy your share without any restrictions.

Its initial value is 0.0000625eth.

You will also find that a robot has silently bought you. If you have too few fans, it will sell you at the original price again after a while:

1. Robots may calculate your value based on your Twitter followers and buy you to earn the price difference.

2. The official has launched an activity to distribute 100 million points over a period of 6 months, aiming to empty the inventory.

2. Then, when you want to buy or sell someone's share, you find that you can trade without any liquidity restrictions because its price is determined by a built-in formula.

price  =  S^2  /  16000

S is the total number of shares you have sold now.

(Buying and selling shares requires a 10% transaction tax: 5% goes to the creator's wallet and 5% goes to the project party.)

This formula means that.1. The price curve is consistent for everyone, and the same number of shares corresponds to the same price.

2. The absolute value of price growth is linear.

Price difference = (S+1)^2 / 16000 - S^2 / 16000

        =（2S+1）/1600The price difference is linearly increasing.

3.   However, at the beginning, the growth rate is exponential. As the later period approaches, shares reach hundreds and the growth rate becomes more moderate.

The proportion of price difference to price = ((2S+1)/1600)/S^2  /  16000

=2S+1/S^2

During the value regression period:

You can only pray that you are the one who discovers the value regression, and takes the top big box first, otherwise...

For high-value ranges, the linear stable period:

有点蓝筹的意思，真进行价格发现

"有点蓝筹的意思，真进行价格发现" translates to "It means a bit blue-chip and truly carries out price discovery."

Its early models were extremely peripheral, with expectations of airdrops, and it also needs to compete with robots in terms of speed.

However, you will also find that using this mechanism will have a problem:

The most expensive now is the founder race.

On August 22nd, only 154 holders corresponded to 3.2 ETH at the ETH price.

                                 S=368 shares

                                price=8eth

Although we can only chat now.

那

The robot scans whoever, and the FOMO crowd rushes towards whoever.

As for whether the creator can provide enough scarcity in the future, it remains to be seen.

So the most important property of this formula is...

nft provides floor price

"S^2 / 16000" gives the top price?

In web3, we are working on subscriptions and paid chats.

Don't waste it, okay?

Moreover, even if you spend money, would they really be willing to chat with you?

The validity of price still requires proactive empowerment.

To be worth a top price, one must produce core scarce work.

If placed in a pricing system, everyone can appreciate the beautiful curve together.

If we push the limits of Baba's lunch even further:

Valuing the 20-year lunch with Buffett in one go, Buffett first assumes that his valuation is met when selling S shares.

I'm sorry, but I cannot translate the content you provided as it is incomplete. Please provide the complete content you want me to translate.

Buffett acted as a market maker for himself and bought all the shares before the S split

花了

translates to

Spent

.

(1^ 2+2^ 2……+（S-1)^2)/16000=(2S^3-3S^2+S)/6/16000 eth

Then sell S shares at a price of (S^2  /  16000) each, buy one share and sell one share at a stable price. Sell a total of S shares and earn:

（S^2  /  16000）S - (2S^3-3S^2+S)/6/16000

=(4S^3+3S^2-S)/6/16000

The value is equal to 5000000*20.

4S^3+3S^2-S-6000000000=0

求得 S=1144

translates to "S=1144 is obtained."

price=80eth

It's probably not P&G, it might actually be for pricing itself.

Therefore, the assumption basis for the two calculations mentioned above is:

1. Creator believes that they have provided scarcity value to shares and can take action in advance, such as making a market for themselves.

2.   Shares holders are all scarce evaluators and market makers, who work together to price scarcity.

Scarcity lies in the core value that cannot be replicated, in real-time, in the creator's creative ability and empowerment intention.

The ups and downs, scarcity, high points, and top price of that person's life will be reflected in the fluctuating price curve.

Looking back at the beginning of the article...

Uniswap's x*y=k

nft 的 price=floor price Translation:

nft's price=floor price

The pricing model of top price, high prices, and limited networks all point to the "core scarce pricing system" of humans.

We will turn around and try to find this price pattern again.

1. Does it have any relationship with the value provided by the creator?

2、  和 creator 的粉丝数有无关系？ 2. Does it have any relationship with the number of fans of the creator?

Regarding , it cannot be quantitatively calculated and follows the principle that the more fans there are, the higher the average price, which can be used as a reference.

Directly quoted data compiled by forsight news.

As shown in the figure below, there is still a significant difference in the number of Twitter followers at the top level, with even several hundred or thousand followers included.

Can be seen

1.   The behavior of mobilizing fans is related to both "creator" and cannot be quantified.

那我们尝试用一个简单的计算来测试价格范围

Translation:

Let's try a simple calculation to test the price range.

Consider some factors.

Revenue: Trading tax revenue + expected revenue from point accumulation

Cost: Self-purchase cost

1、Creator's transaction tax revenue

You can find that the earning/price ratio K has a simple range.

The higher the price, the more frequent the trading and the higher the earning.

and price ranking, as well as Creator's positive guidance, are all related. At this stage, they are all homogeneous conditions.The first place cobie's K is close to 30.

The top 4 K values are between 20-30.

The K values of the 5th to 50th ranked individuals are between 10 and 20.

And the trading volume during calm periods is only 1-2 ETH.

Before 8.14, the highest price was 2.4 ETH, with a cycle income of 35 ETH and K=15.

After 8.14, the highest price is 3.2eth, and the cycle income is 53eth,   K=16.5.

And the trading volume during the calm period is only 1-2 ETH. Assuming that the calm period will bring the creator a maximum of 30% increase in revenue.

Therefore, we take the K value as K=(30;20;10) (1/2)(4/3).

                                 =20;14;7 

Bring it into the calculation later.

This part, we will not intentionally include the profit from point accumulation.

Only passive airdrop income received by users during buying and selling will be counted, or income will not be calculated.

We set the airdrop rate to 20% and allocate 20% of the chips for airdrop.

The cost of self-purchase may not necessarily be obtained purely through one's own purchase.

The calculated price is basically in line with the current market price, proving the price composition factors speculated behind the formula:

1. The main source of income comes from the transaction tax paid by creators, indicating that the primary indicator is the trading volume, which reflects the activity of fans and the enthusiasm of creators.

2. The small portion of the profits comes from passive airdrop earnings. Our calculation results show that the coefficient F seems to be between 0.5-1, indicating that the market does not include a large proportion of future airdrop earnings in the price.

3, the price reflects a portion of the market-making cost, approximately around the coefficient of 0.5 that we use.

那我们怎么运用这个结论？ ->

那我们怎么运用这个结论？

Still using Cobie's data diagram as an example

1.   Calculate the daily trading volume directly, with the two high points on the right side of the indicator being 3.2 and 2.5, respectively.

The trading volume for August 19th and August 21st respectively is 270eth and 130eth.

Before, we calculated the individual cycle earning/price of the top-level creator to be 15.

First of all, the value of 15 corresponds to different prices for different levels, and needs to be considered.

Next, we need to determine a value that is not particularly clear.

That is, based on the current cycle and popularity, the trading volume on this day may account for a certain proportion of the active cycle.

For example,

Determine if the first peak belongs to the first peak after the dormant period, and determine if this cycle has 4 times the trading volume on that day.

That is, price=270*4*0.05/15=3.6eth.

Approximately 3.2

Determine whether the second peak belongs to the second cycle of the period, and determine that the total trading volume of the cycle is 6 times that of the day.

That is, price=130*6*0.05/15=2.6eth.

Approximately 2.5

The difficulty lies in how to determine the proportion of trading volume?

This method may have some difficulty in speculating the price fluctuations of the same target, but it can be used to pick up some undervalued targets.

2. As the certainty of the project increases, the airdrop yield coefficient may also be partially included. This needs to be observed to see if the price will be raised to price=5.6 when the coefficient F=1 and K=20.

阶段判断 (Stage Verification)

Now observing the fee indicator, whether it is the top-ranked target or the overall protocol, it has already fallen from the short-term high point and is not suitable for chasing high. Only real-time observation of fee data may reveal individual counter-trend targets.

What else can be done then?

1. Bot+social is a good direction. In the early days, using rules and utilizing bots, or becoming a human bot, can make money and develop bot projects. According to Tom Wan, an analyst at 21.co, more than 113 bot contracts have already obtained over 20,000 keys (shares) and earned over 2 million US dollars on friend.tech. The most profitable bot contract is 0xcc218bbd21e14944fcc121d161c9b9ae71b9cc85, with a revenue of 569,000 US dollars.

2, users with many followers can make self-purchases and refer to the formula calculated in our article.

3. This scarcity pricing discovery system can be further improved, for example.

Make a more user-friendly third-party dashboard?

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