Week 54 On-chain data analysis: Slow accumulation of illiquid supply, slightly higher risk of derivatives at present

原文标题：《 企者不立，跨者不行｜WTR 1.9 》

原文作者：WatchToweR Crypto

Review of the week

This week, from January 3rd to January 9th, the highest was near $17,350 and the lowest was near $16,600, with a 4.5% swing. Right and left.

Observe the chip distribution chart, in about   $16474    There are a lot of chips nearby, there will be some support or pressure.

• & have spent Analysis:

1. 17000 ~ 20000  About   158  Ten thousand pieces;

2. 12000 ~ 16500    About   300  Ten thousand pieces;

• & have spent It cannot be broken in the short term. 16000~12000    The probability is 65%;

• & have spent Among them, the probability of not breaking 18500 ~ 20000 in the short term is 62%.

Important information

Economic news

• United States

1.              Markit's PMI for December is as follows, with 50 being the dividing line between expansion and contraction:

a.              Final manufacturing PMI 46.2 vs. 46.2 forecast, compared with 47.7 in November.

b.            Final services PMI at 44.7 vs. 44.4 forecast, 46.2 in November and 57.6 in 2021.

c.              The final composite PMI came in at 45 versus 44.6 forecast, compared with 46.4 in November and 57 in 2021.

2.              The ISM manufacturing index was 48.4 in December, compared with expectations of 48.5 and 49 in November, with 50 marking the line between expansion and contraction. Among them

a.              The new orders index was 45.2, compared with 47.2 in November.

b.            The production index came in at 48.5 compared with 51.5 in November.

c.              The new export orders index was 46.2, compared with 48.4 in November.

d.            The import index came in at 45.1, compared with 46.6 in November.

3.              The ISM non-manufacturing index was 49.6 in December, compared with expectations of 55, and 56.5 in November, with 50 marking the boundary between expansion and contraction.

a.              The business activity index was 54.7, compared with 64.7 in November.

b.            The new orders index was 45.2, compared with 56 in November.

c.              The price index was 67.6, compared with 70 in November.

d.            The supplier delivery index was 48.5, compared with 53.8 in November.

4.              The Labor Department nonfarm payrolls report showed that 223,000 nonfarm payrolls were added in December, compared to 202,000 expected and 263,000 (revised down to 256,000).

a.              Most of the growth was in leisure and hospitality (67,000), health care (55,000), social assistance (20,000), construction (28,000), retail (9,000), and government (3,000), with the largest increase in construction;

b.            The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, below expectations of 3.7%. Since March 2022, the unemployment rate has fluctuated between 3.5% and 3.7%.

c.              The labor participation rate rose, rising to 62.3 percent in December, above market expectations for 62.2 percent. The underemployment rate fell, to 6.5% from 6.7%.

d.            Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-on-month in December, below market expectations of 0.4%, and 4.6% year-over-year, below market expectations of 5%.

e.              Employment will increase by 4.5 million in 2022, an average monthly increase of 375,000, 562,000 in 2021 and 168,000 in 2019.

• EU & Britain

1.              Data from the European Union's statistics office, Eurostat, showed the preliminary CPI for the euro zone in December was 9.2% year-on-year, below market expectations of 9.5% and down from 10.1% in the previous month.

2.              On a monthly basis, euro zone harmonic CPI slipped 0.3 percent in December, versus market expectations for a 0.1 percent decline.

3.              Euro zone December core harmonic CPI flash 5.2% y/y vs. 5.1% exp. & 5% exp.

4.              The euro zone economic sentiment index rose for a second straight month to 95.8 in December, compared with market expectations of 94.7.

5.              Germany's preliminary CPI rose 8.6% in December from 10.4% in October and 10% in November. On a monthly basis, the CPI fell 0.8 percent in December.

a.              The preliminary CPI for 2022 rose 7.9 percent year on year.

6.              The preliminary German harmonic CPI rose 9.6% y/y in December, versus market expectations of 10.2%, and fell 1.2% y/m.

a.              In 2022, the preliminary harmonized CPI rose 8.7 percent year on year.

7.              Euro zone PPI rose 27.1% year on year in November versus market expectations of 27.5%; On a month-on-month basis, it fell 0.9% versus market expectations of 0.8%.

8.              Blackrock has suspended investor withdrawals from its £3.5bn UK property fund, deferring redemption requests made by the end of September 2022 and due now.

• Asia

1.              Yields on 10 - and 20-year JGBS hit new highs this week.

2.              The BOJ offered to buy a total of ¥450 billion ($3.4 billion) of government bonds with maturities of one to ten years and ¥150 billion ($1.1 billion) of JGBS with maturities of ten to 25 years.

a.              This was in addition to the BOJ's unplanned purchases of 1-to-10-year government bonds on December 28th and 29th.

3.              The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI for December 2022 was 49, compared with 49.4 in November. Business confidence in the outlook for production over the next year rose to its highest level in 10 months.

4.              December 2022 Caixin China services PMI rose to 48.0 vs. 46.8 forecast, from 46.7 in November. Overall optimism among service providers is at its highest level since July 2021.

• Other

1.              Both spot and futures are up this week.

2.              WTI February and Brent March futures fell this week; U.S. natural gas futures lost about 17 percent in February, their third straight week of losses.

3.              Oil giant Saudi Aramco cut the price of all types of crude it will ship to Asia in February to the lowest level since November 2021. It also cut the price of crude oil destined for Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean, leaving the price of products destined for the United States unchanged.

Encrypted ecomessaging

1.              On January 1, 2023, the UK introduced a tax exemption for foreign investors who use local brokers or investment managers to invest in cryptocurrencies.

2.              Russia is considering building new power plants in Siberia in the face of high energy demand from miners, as demand for mining in residential areas continues to increase.

3.              Indonesia plans to launch a cryptocurrency trading platform this year, and regulatory authority will be transferred to the Indonesian Financial Services Authority under the framework of financial reforms.

4.              In December, BN had 66.7% of the market, CB 8.2% and OKX 5.9%.

5.              KuCoin Labs  Initiated the blockchain incubation plan, and received support from Matrix Partners and CDH Investments.

6.              New York money management giant VanEck  Director of Digital Assets Strategy   Gabor Gurbacs :  Expect new investment themes to emerge over the next 20-25 years, focusing on bitcoin, stablecoins, digital assets, innovation and solutions to restructure historical debt; See Stablecoin as a solution to generational debt and wealth transfer.

7.              OKX  Founders: Luna, 3AC, FT, Genesis and other events in 2022, to the dismay of those in the crypto industry, but looking back at the history of encryption, it is a technology-driven industry, Pow, ETH, Segwit, Det, ZK  Driving the entire crypto market capitalization to grow to one trillion, I am optimistic about 2023.

8.              Dogecoin Developer: No switch to nbsp at present; POS  The plan of

9.              The 14th anniversary of the creation of the Crystal Orange Genesis Block. In 2022, a total of 17 early Crystal Orange blocks before 2010 will be spent, each block will be awarded 50 flatcakes for a total of 850 pieces.

10.        Founder of Ark Foundation   Cathie wood: $1 million pie by 2030, and if some institutional investors are willing to learn, they may end up preferring crystal orange and cryptocurrencies.

11.        Blackrock, the asset management giant, becomes a crypto miner. Core Scientific  One of the largest creditors, with $37.9 million in convertible bonds.

12.        Deloitte: Financial services firms in Hong Kong are racing to lay the groundwork to enable retail clients to trade virtual assets in the coming months.

Long-term insight: To look at our long-term situation; Bull/bear/structural change/neutral

Intermediate probe: To analyze what stage we are in, how long will we be in this stage, and what situation will we face

Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; And the possibility of certain directions and certain events under certain circumstances

Long-term insight

• Stampede sentiment net position

Sentiment plays an important role in market prices and is also an amplifier in reasonable pricing.

In brain science, because different emotions make different choices, the inertia of thinking in different emotions amplifies some features of thinking.

So this episode focuses on emotional insight.

(below   Stampede sentiment net position)

Upper and lower are the extreme values of different emotions;

Among them, the upper inflow is trampled emotion into, and the lower excessive outflow is another emotion.

Such models are generally derived from real money data on the chain.

Also in the approximate backtest of the historical situation, the state of the entire 2016 and even the entire 2022.

This can be more suitable for the comparison of the right strategy, in the sustainability of market sentiment and price is well reflected.

In a number of falls and continuous falls, a large number of stampede emotions into the state.

The stampede mood has eased slightly at this stage.  

Intermediate probe              

• Cost weight ratio of long-term and short-term participants

• Position held by long-term traders

• Share of illiquid supply

• Ultra-short-term newcomers

• Online emotional positivity

• loss liquidation constant

• Purchasing power differential

Long - and short-term group ratings: Short-term traders are relatively cheap

(below   Cost weight ratio of long-term and short-term participants)

From the perspective of the spending status of long-term and short-term participants, short-term traders have not become the main body of market spending, which may represent the overall lack of short-term traders' participation.

Based on the data, several basic points can be made:

1.              When the market is in a illiquid environment, the weight of long-term traders can increase and their movements can move the market. At this stage, we can try to view the market space from the perspective of long-term group selling pressure and position changes.

2.              The problem that can arise when short-term traders are in the doldrums is that the overall sense of space is weak and the right turning point is questionable.

3.              From a relative point of view, there are fewer short-term participants and more long-term participants.

This year may be the year that long-term traders slowly influence the pattern of the market.

Take an in-depth look at the dynamics of long-term players.

(below   Long-term trader position)

In the observation of the position status of long-term traders, they are relatively difficult to stampede, and the frequency is low.

Slow accumulation may be their group tone.

It seems to be slowing down a bit.

(below   Share of illiquid supply)

The illiquid supply as a whole presents a change of slow accumulation. The pace of accumulation is slowing down slightly at present. Perhaps the space of sellers on the floor is also facing a slow squeeze.

(below   Super short term new force)

The proportion method is used to observe the proportion relationship of super - short - term new force in monthly active supply.

While the super short term new strength has been somewhat repaired recently, it no longer continues to decline.

Trading sentiment Rating: Slow repair

(below   Network emotional positivity)

The repair of trading sentiment on the chain is still a relatively slow pace, and the current overall is still in a state of repair.

(below   Loss liquidation constant)

Loss liquidation constant is a composite observation index that statistics the magnitude of loss transfer and long liquidation in the market.

Comprehensive statistics long liquidating and loss stampede phenomenon.

Burgundy area: loss liquidation constant

Blue area: Rate of change of loss liquidation constant

At present, there is no significant increase in the liquidation constant loss, may be more obvious in the market changes rapidly.

At the same time, in the recent market, long liquidation and stampede losses did not appear.

Note: Specific usage should be combined with the derivatives section of "Short-term observation".

Purchasing power rating: Slowing down

(below   Purchasing power difference)

Blue line: Total balance of stablecoin on trading platform

Blue and green areas: net PPP position

The purchasing power gap entered a phase of slowing down.

From the blue line, purchasing power is now showing signs of slowing down. Stablecoin may still need to have more repair, in order to provide power and support for the disk.

Short-term observation

• Derivatives risk factor

• Option intent to volume ratio

• Derivatives volume

• Implied volatility of options

• Transfer of earnings and losses

• Add addresses and active addresses

• Crystal orange trading platform net position

• Net position of aunt trading platform

• High weight dump pressure

• State of global purchasing power

• Net position on stablecoin trading platform

• Off-chain trading platform data

Derivative rating: Derivatives are slightly dangerous, but long liquidating volume is not high

(below   Derivative risk coefficient)

Derivatives risk has again entered the relatively high risk zone.

In the meantime, however, more attention needs to be paid to the rotation of the ratio of long liquidation to short liquidation.

At present, the market rose more is the liquidation of short shorts to support the market plate.

(below   Option intent to volume ratio)

This follows a period of less than a week of inflows into some call options

Now, bets on call options are starting to fall.

(below   Derivatives volume)

Derivatives volume is back at the bottom.

(below   Option implied volatility)

There has been no significant rise in volatility, just a short - term slight turn in volatility.

Combined with the broader derivatives market, the upside for bulls may not be very large.

Emotional state rating: no stampede emotion, slightly better overall

(below   Transfer of profit and loss)

The stampede did not become more prominent.

The market doesn't have much chain stress.

(below   New and active addresses)

The state of the address is also better than before, and active.

Spot and selling pressure structure rating: slightly better than the previous selling pressure, a little accumulation

(below   Net position of Crystal orange trading platform)

Three days ago, the onslaught of sustained inflow pressure, instead of two weeks ago, began to slowly turn into a build-up of outflow.

(below   Net position of E Pacific trading platform)

The same is true for E tau.

(below   High weight throw pressure)

These two weeks of high weight selling pressure impact, compared to a few months before the impact is much smaller.

The shock in the market is continuing to come down, and there's not a lot of additional selling pressure in the market right now.

Purchasing power rating: Asia remains supportive and Stablecoin has a bit of support

(below   State of global purchasing power)

Purchasing power in America and Europe is still in limbo.

Asian purchasing power remains relatively sustained.

(below   USDC trading platform net position)

The inflow of USDC stablecoin also provided relatively low support to the market.

(below   USDT trading platform net position)

USDT  for use by the Asian population; Instead, it remained in a state of inflow support.

In terms of real money purchases, the mood of the Asian crowd recovered more quickly during this period.

More old hands in Asia are slowly building up their stakes.

Downchain transaction data rating: Buying intentions are relatively weak and the market is ambiguous

(below   Coinbase off-chain data)

The market has a little buy appetite at 16000 and a little sell appetite around 17500.

(below   Binance link data)

16,000 weak buying intentions.

(below   Bitfinex data)

15800 has a slight appetite to buy.

Overall, the market as a whole is still relatively weak, and there are not too many outstanding places.

  Summary of the week:

  Summary of message surface:

1. 2023 is all about whether the U.S. avoids a real or mild recession. It's important in the medium to long term, and it will affect the primary and secondary markets in the medium to long term.

2. Inflation is starting to ease in the euro area, a tentative decline in US manufacturing is starting to show, and the only relative good news is the proportion of job growth in tourism and hospitality.

Under the current circumstances, Tencent and Alibaba giants in the Asia-Pacific region, including those in Europe and the United States, have problems of internal corruption and inadequate regulatory support, as well as inadequate implementation of trust. These problems still exist even today when the Internet is introduced.

In the era of massive multiplayer collaboration, Web3 or blockchain exists to solve these problems.

This is an appeal to the current pain point of massive multiplayer collaboration, but it will also dramatically increase productivity, and all valuations and premiums and creation must be in service of productivity.

In the long term, the crypto asset trend is hard to completely dissipate, which is the essence of its existence.

At the same time, in the early stage is the most suitable to enter the financial application, and the excessive financial mania let the public forget the original meaning of Web3.

2023 will be a year for the entire Web3 industry to think about the underlying logic, application scenarios and productivity. Proper cooling can trigger thinking.

Of course, the real implementation and quantification of productivity, this road is still a long way.

Long-term insight on the chain:

1.              Net positions in stampede sentiment do well on sustained declines and on sustained forecasts of declines;

2.              In the history of some important plunge periods such as 2018, March 12, 2020 and so on, this data shows good predictability and performance;

3.              Now that number hasn't changed much;

4.              This data has a good effect on momentum judgment. Have a strong constructive strategy.

• Market tone setting:

The market is relatively cool, but also not too strong stampede emotion performance.

Mid-chain probe:

1.              Long-term participants have a relatively high weight of selling pressure;

2.              Long-term participants had fewer stampedes;

3.              Slow accumulation of illiquid supply;

4.              Ultra-short-term growth slowed slightly;

5.              Slow repair of on-chain trading sentiment;

6.              The loss-clearing constant is relatively quiet;

7.              Stablecoins show signs of slowing outflows;

• Market tone setting:

Slow repair;

From the current situation, there are signs of recovery of trading sentiment, but relatively slow, medium - and long-term slow accumulation of groups, may become the main body of market support during this period.

Strategy suggestion: Cautious treatment of the current delicate dish mood, perhaps the medium - and long-term position according to the monthly investment, with time for space, more suitable for the current tone.

Short-term observations on the chain:

1.              Derivatives are a little riskier;

2.              At present, one of the main market rises, for the liquidation of short, resulting in short squeeze;

3.              In terms of market sentiment, there is no great stampede sentiment, good performance;

4.              The market changed two weeks ago the inflow of selling pressure, began to turn to a little accumulation;

5.              High weight selling pressure at a low level, stablecoin support is relatively weak;

6.              Purchasing power is the main force in the Asian time zone;

7.              The purchase intention of data under the trading platform chain is not obvious;

8.              Now look at the use of long space will not be particularly large;

9.              The probability of not breaking 16000~12000 in the short term is 65%;

10.        Among them, the probability of not breaking 18500 ~ 20000 in the short term is 62%.

• Market tone setting:

There is not much selling pressure in the market and purchasing power is relatively weak.

The main driver is the derivative short squeeze.

Strategy advice: Long strategies need to be cautious.

Risk warning:

The above are market discussion and exploration, and do not have directional opinions on investment; Please treat carefully and prevent the market black swan risk.

This article is from submission and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.    

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