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Where is the engine of the next bull market roaring?

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In addition to cycles, a bull market also needs hot spots, and some hot spots can form wealth effects without fear of cycles.

Original title: " Where is the engine of the next bull market roaring? 》

Original author: Song Dun Yigewuyuan DelvinDAO

A bull market needs not only cycles but also hot spots, and some hot spots can not be afraid of cycles create a wealth effect.

I call this hot spot a bull market engine What is the next bull market engine?

Check the past to know the present, let’s sort out the historical context first:

17 , the ICO method of smart contracts (in simple terms, it is to enter the ETH smart contract into the ETH address to automatically exchange new asset tokens), detonated a big bull market—a super bull market, a hundred times, a thousand times projects fly randomly , this bull market is guided by encrypted narratives and claims to Decentralize everything, which ignites unlimited expectations. Unfortunately, the result is a mess. The application proves that Niu has been here~

18 years, after the launch of EOS, with its high TPS, it set off a wave of DAPP Mining boom (mainly spinach projects, through continuous betting on mining platform coins, although the principal of the betting is lost, the platform coins mined can cover the loss and can arbitrage more stably, and a small number of platform coins are still rising gratifyingly) ——The market is small but has a good wealth-creating effect. Most of the active players in the past have become senior players of this wave of DEFI. Due to the limitations of EOS itself, the ceiling of user expansion cannot be pierced. This wave of DAPPs failed to spark a prairie fire. Instead, everyone gradually despaired of blockchain applications. At that time, the Ethereum tractor could not carry these applications. Big bear market, summed up in one word: Miserable~

In addition, the exploration of chain games based on the EOS network this year was also a little hot, yes, the chain games at that time You are today's Gamefi. If you have played a chain game called "Grapefruit Three Kingdoms", then you will know that the gameplay of this game is actually very similar to AXIE. It can't be said that it is similar. It should be that Axie borrowed the gameplay of EOS Three Kingdoms. The vitality of this blockchain game is very tenacious, and users were still very active until 2019. Finally, but the point that should be emphasized the most: this blockchain game is independently developed by Chinese people! ! ! Although the project party has also made money, it still has to lament that it is not the right time~

It is still 18 years There is a hot spot called transaction mining, which was originally created by Fcoin, and the principle is also simple. It is very similar to DAPP mining on Yuzu. High-frequency trading volume is used to mine platform coins, and the platform coins are sold to cover transaction fees for transaction losses, stabilizing arbitrage. How fierce was this thing at the beginning? In less than half a month, the total transaction volume of the Fcoin platform exceeded the sum of the transaction volume of the other six leading exchanges. Punching Binance, kicking Huobi, OK sat in the corner and dared not make a sound~ But in the end, Fcoin was insolvent in 2019, leaving behind a sigh, which can be described as: taking drugs for a while, always taking drugs for a long time, taking drugs To the last crematorium~

In 2018, whether it is DAPP mining or transaction mining, and the DEFI mining of the big fire in 2020 and the most primitive BTC mining The mines echo each other, and DEFI mining completely inherits the essence of DAPP mining and transaction mining. In the limited life of the encryption market, it has been going through bulls and bears for a long time. In addition to big cakes, there is actually "mining", the sexiest word in the encryption circle. From miner to famer, it can be created out of nothing like magic , Darkness, out of thin air imagination, out of thin air fabrication...

19 years, this year the market is very bearish, trading The firm actively saves itself and engages in the IEO game. The project side directly links with the exchange. There is no middleman to earn the price difference. It does not need to find investment institutions to raise funds. It directly raises funds from retail investors on the exchange. After the completion of the transaction, it will quickly open the market. The standard configuration is 5 times, 10 times the opening price, and some coins behind can continue to rise, creating a wealth effect. The leeks are staring at the top exchanges to rush for new ones. This method has greatly promoted the flow of funds in the market and saved the lives of many exchanges in the bear market. At the beginning, because there were few circulations, it was easy to pull orders, but the follow-up was weak. Most of the projects only have boring market-making skills, and lack the mentality of painting cakes and narratives. The currency price will still fall back later. Afterwards, it was quickly ruined, and many exchanges even started their own projects directly. In the later stage of IEO, some projects were too lazy to be fooled by market making, and the leeks that were still in the process of being rushed directly took over the market. Some exchanges even sell a lot of air, maliciously short certain projects, and eventually IEO withers, and the entire encryption circle has infinite disgust for centralized exchanges; in 20 years, everyone is familiar with it, the rise of DEX, and the listing and trading of small projects CEX can be bypassed at low cost, and at the same time, loans, gun pools, and various liquid mining explosions, all kinds of new things continue to appear, and DEFI’s tyrannical narrative sweeps the encryption circle amidst constant doubts, opening up a new continent, and the thunder and earth fires are triggered , opened a super bull market;

21 years, the most lively

Multi-chain universe; DEFI is constantly evolving, building blocks, from ETH ecological expansion to multi-chain universe, Ethereum killer, EVM & People have unlimited daydreams, and the market value of public chain coins continues to hit new highs!

The rise of Gamefi is equivalent to an upgrade of DEFI, which greatly prolongs the project cycle and is different from the simple mortgage of DEFI Liquidity mining, Gamefi not only requires players to inject funds, but also spends a lot of time for players to make gold. The derived professional gold mining guild has also risen, attracting a lot of traffic from outside the circle, and rekindling the dream of encrypting circles out of the circle. Even now, everyone has understood that Gamefi cannot escape the ponzi mode, and Gamefi's narrative banner is still attracting people from both inside and outside the circle~

The Rise of NFTS, known as NFT Summer in the summer of 21, PFP small pictures detonated the NFT market, this is a more vital encrypted asset, unlike the previous Tokeon, which is huge Most of them are for hype and arbitrage. NFT also has a certain nature of collection and consumption. It softens traditional art and current encryption technology, makes encrypted assets closer to entities, and makes the implementation of encryption technology a big step forward. At the same time, it has attracted a large number of new players to enter the arena, many stars, stars brought goods, several native encrypted luxury IPs such as BAYC, Punks are easier for players outside the circle to accept than BTC.

Gmefi and NFT are hot and entangled with each other, and with the concept of metaverse becoming popular, NFT is regarded as an important production factor of the future metaverse , Gamefi makes people see the possibility of making money in the future Metaverse. The interweaving rendering of NFT, Gamefi & Metaverse is depicting a wonderful future. Coupled with the hot discussion of the concept of Web3, leeks and traditional financial money are all excited, and funds are madly pouring into the primary market. Unfortunately, Metaverse and Web3 It can only be attributed to the hope that people can see more practical support like DEFI, but the road is tortuous~

meme is crazy; at the same time, meme coins will perform a fanatical movement in 2021. Many old leeks said they could not understand but were shocked. Why did the gameplay of the encryption market keep getting closer to landing and finally returned to the speculative atmosphere, and returned to the most mindless call for mutual cut? Because of DEX, are you not afraid of cex acting as a demon? Because popular traffic is the current essence of the encryption market? Big V shouting orders + speculative funds + market enthusiasm, meme just turned the 2021 bull market into a dog market. Now come back to the replay, maybe the extremely boiling funds in the market need such an outlet. Playing DEFI, Gamefi is too troublesome, Just speculation, Just rush, only CX is the most down-to-earth, in the frenzy, the market ushered in the wave of bull market At the peak, then flourished and declined~ DEFI2.0 was stubborn and finally buried in the wave of the bear market~

22 years, keep going Bear, the world situation is turbulent, the bear market is turning into a monkey, jumping up and down, but everyone is still unsatisfied with this feast of the bull market, and the leeks are starting to force narratives to hype.

DAO The narrative was fired, fired until Assange cut a wave of fomo people, knocked DAO's death knell~

Then X2E led by Stepn made everyone restless, but the latecomers couldn't stand up, ponzi The model is seen by everyone at a glance~

Then there is DID, domain name speculation, the favorite of Chinese people, and then I also say What then~

Socialfi Continuously restless but can't see anything real; NFTs have also cooled down; In the face of the big cycle, there is no strong practical support, and it is difficult to reverse the decline only by narrative~ This year, Luna, three arrows and thunderstorms made the already bleak situation worse~

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Checking the past and knowing the present, although the hot spots are different every time, there are still some commonalities:

Every hot spot promotes the flow of assets,

Every hot spot will be accompanied by new assets,

Every hot narrative counts.

IC0 in 17 years, and NFTS in 21 years are strong narrative promotion, hype future expectations, and the interest rate difference generated by the excess return of issuing new assets leverages assets

The DAPP mining and transaction mining in 2018, as well as the IEO are driven by mechanism innovation, which produces wealth creation effect and leverages asset flow;

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The 20-year DEFI is also a kind of mechanism innovation, but a grand narrative has been derived on the basis of the mechanism innovation, which is beyond the reach of DAPP mining and transaction mining. The wonderful DEFI The grand narrative coupled with visible support - the growing TVL, the expanding multi-chain universe, and surging users have made this bull market in 20-21 crazy and long-lasting! Both Gamefi and X2E are enhanced versions of this model~

The narratives of the 17-year bull market and the 20-21 bull market are equally grand, but the difference lies in the latter The narrative has more practical support, and this wave is confirmed by various data of products, making this wave of bull market crazy and long-lasting~

Going one step further To sum up, the bull market engine needs to meet three elements: accelerate asset flow, new assets, narrative.

Then the question is, what will be the next hot spot?

The first principle of Web2 is traffic

I think the first principle of Web3 should be digital assets

The engine hot spots in the future will definitely focus on New gameplay and narrative innovation of digital assets!

If you compare funds to water, each of these new ways of playing is like hydropower stations, sluices, water pumps, guiding funds, and chains are like big rivers, etc. Infrastructure, carrying funds, each new project is like farmland, water irrigation, and farming new assets. The cross-chain bridge is like the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal, opening up the multi-chain universe and further promoting the circulation of funds.

Precise prediction is too difficult, but fuzzy prediction can still roughly see the direction:

NFT This new asset has a high probability of deriving new narratives and new gameplay. This general direction is almost inevitable. The new situation of NFT (different from PFP) and new transactions Models, new NFTfi, etc. are all worthy of great effort to explore and innovate. The consensus in this direction is also relatively common, and many funds and senior players are making efforts.

There is another direction I think is BTC's DEFi potential mining, this direction has been communicated with many people, only A small number of people agree. Only 2% of the huge capital volume of BTC has participated in DEFI (refer to my previous article https://mirror.xyz/dunyi.eth/SeJYm34yVvhgUQM9McWMzfa1v5B-g7PXkqoZ_wESJ94) Due to the imperfect infrastructure of BTC, BTC has entered DEFI The demand for arbitrage is limited, but it is precisely because of this that there is room for development~ DID, data analysis, and Socialfi are all tools to assist asset speculation, and network effects are needed to generate a large consensus. A head, but the ceiling is limited, it is difficult to become a master. Only by growing against the trend in a bear market can a real network effect be formed. I have never seen such a product. If you find it, can you please let me know~

Here I sincerely suggest that many builders in China should not focus too much on DID and Socialfi. It is difficult for us to compete with foreign countries in terms of infrastructure and public chains, but there is still hope for the application layer. We have the genes of the application layer. As long as the direction is not wrong, spend more energy in the two directions of NFT and BTC defi! Of course, the hot spots in the future will not be limited to these two directions, but these two directions are more certain in my opinion. The words of the family welcome different points of view to discuss and confirm. I also hope that like-minded people can come together to do something fun. We are happy to give early ideas, funds and other support within our capacity~ Written at the time of the 119 massacre in 2022, the thunderstorm of FTX caught quite a few people off guard. The fundamentals of the entire industry are changing, the capital investment of traditional capital will decrease sharply, and the primary market will usher in a real cold winter, but this is also the moment to test the true Builder. The spirit of blockchain will never die. May we We all have a bright future~