Original Title: "David's Takes: A Different Type of Bull Market?"

Original Author: David Hoffman

Translated by: Luccy, BlockBeats

Editor's Note:

With the launch of spot ETFs imminent, especially with the possibility of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs being approved, the cryptocurrency market continues to reach new highs, and market sentiment is driving people to believe that a bull market is imminent.

However, Bankless analyst Jack recently wrote an article stating that people's expectations for spot ETFs are too high, pointing out that demand for Bitcoin ETFs has stalled. Bankless co-owner David also compared the triggering factors of several previous bull markets and pointed out that spot ETFs are only an external force. To embrace a real bull market, new primitives, new applications, and endogenous catalysts that arouse new interests may be needed.

As the bull market approaches, the article mentions some market trends, including the surge of low-market-cap assets, especially projects such as THORChain and Solana. Senior professionals express concerns about the impact of retail speculation frenzy and use past experience to guide investment decisions.

Obviously, it is currently a bull market.

At least everyone says so. This should not be ignored! If enough people hold a bullish attitude, this sentiment will spread, and now is the time to bid!

However, unlike previous bullish sentiments, this time the bullish sentiment is somewhat different and worth identifying and analyzing.

People are bullish because of the upcoming launch of spot ETFs. The approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF could happen at any time, and a spot Ethereum ETF is not far off either. This is the moment the industry has been waiting for over a decade - the Winkelvi first proposed their Bitcoin ETF back in 2013! The scale of the channel established between spot ETFs and BTC/ETH should not be underestimated.

A large amount of funds can flow through these channels. This is a huge bullish catalyst, with no other explanation.

If the approval of these spot ETFs triggers a bull market, it will be the first time that the cryptocurrency experiences a bull market caused by external factors.

The content to be translated is:

What am I talking about?

The bull market of 2013 is known as the era of forks and fair launches, when people realized that Bitcoin was a primitive that could be replicated. 10,000 PoW chains emerged, some of which still exist today.

The bull market of 2017 was during the ICO frenzy, when people discovered they could issue tokens on Ethereum without the need for an entire blockchain to weigh down their assets. And, there were smart contracts too!

The bull market of 2021 is characterized by the crazes for NFTs and Alt-L1. We have discovered that our tokens are not just financial assets, but also hold value in culture, art, and community within DeFi. Additionally, there is a desire for more block space, which has attracted a significant amount of venture capital and energy towards creating an "Ethereum killer".

Currently, is the bull market in 2024 destined to be a bull market for spot ETF approval? Because external capital has the ability to purchase BTC and ETH?

Do you notice anything different here? This bull market did not come on our terms.

This is an external bull market. It is caused by external forces outside the cryptocurrency industry. There are no internal motivating factors to stimulate excitement, interest, and demand for the blockchain space.

In all previous bull markets in the cryptocurrency industry, we have discovered new primitives that unlock new use cases, applications, and demands. We have empowered consumers and retailers with new capabilities and attracted people with a vision of expanding the possibilities of cryptocurrency.

In this bull market, traditional finance can purchase our two main blue-chip assets through their brokerage institutions. This is a different bull market catalyst.

Currently, bullish sentiment is spreading within the industry, and assets with lower market capitalization have experienced some crazy price movements, especially THORChain and Solana, which also experienced huge gains in the previous bull market.

The industry veterans who have been holding their positions throughout the entire bear market are now placing their bets, speculating on what kind of speculative frenzy may emerge in the retail market and using their memories of 2021 to guide their investment decisions.

But what if this bull market is not like 2021? Traders and speculators are using historical activity and price action to determine the factors that may attract users in 2024. However, all of our signals now point to a bull market that is different from before.

Two Market Stories

With the upcoming BTC and ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for spot trading, a clear line will be drawn between exposed and unexposed crypto assets. Spot ETFs are bullish because they create trillions of dollars in wealth that exists in traditional brokerage firms and other areas of traditional finance (TradFi).

Only BTC and ETH have this kind of exposure!

Those who place their chips below this line are guessing at a bull market that matches the history of the cryptocurrency bull market. However, without intrinsic incentives, internal excitement, new interests, and new capital, why would the bull market surpass the big line between Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the rest of the market?

We need an endogenous catalyst

无国界国家，就像你一样，我也希望有一个牛市。但是，如果我们要有我们所有人想象中的「牛市」，我们需要一个让新参与者直接通过私钥进入加密世界并开始在比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）之下的领域中参与的理由。

A borderless country, just like you, I also hope for a bull market. However, if we want the "bull market" that we all imagine, we need a reason for new participants to enter the crypto world directly through private keys and start participating in the field under Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

Currently, we do not have any new reasons for people to enter the cryptocurrency field in a native way. We have not unlocked any new primitives. Retailers do not care whether Polygon or Solana have cheap block space and improved execution environments.

We haven't built any new applications yet!

Now, increasing asset prices is already a marketing tactic, and the reopening of casinos and people making money for the first time in two years is an incentive to re-enter this field. However, I am concerned that without some new applications or primitives for people to use, as was the case in 2013, 2017, and 2021, this situation will be short-lived.

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