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On-chain data analysis for the 35th week: The macro selling pressure began to decline, and Ethereum saw a large number of withdrawals

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From the perspective of the market, September may be a month of poor performance. Of course, there may also be some opportunities for fixed investment at the same time.

Original title: "Soldiers Weary and Obsessed, No Blame for Difficulties"

Original source: WatchToweR Research Institute

This week in review

From August 22nd to August 28th this week, the highest price of Bingtang Orange was around 21800, and the lowest price was close to 19500, with a fluctuation of about 10.93%.

Observing the recent chip distribution chart, there will be a large number of chips traded around 19900, which will have certain support or pressure.

Analysis:

1. 19200~20500 about 115 10,000 pieces

2. 23300~24000 about 600,000 pieces

The probability of not breaking through 23500-24000 is about 60%.

Important news

1. Powell's speech: "The Fed will raise interest rates by at least 50 basis points at the September meeting, and there is a high possibility of raising interest rates by 75 basis points ".

2. The U.S. Senate is preparing to hold a hearing on the "Digital Commodity Consumer Protection Act". If it is passed and becomes law, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission will become the main regulator of cryptocurrency trading platforms.

3. Triple A report shows that there are currently 320 million cryptocurrency holders in the world, the United States (46.02 million, accounting for 13.7% of the population), India (27.41 million, accounting for 2% of the population) );

a. 72% of crypto users are under the age of 34, 71% have a bachelor's degree or higher, and have an average annual income of $25,000.

4. Mexican Senator Y Indira Kempis said: Bitcoin is the solution to the 67 million unbanked in Mexico.

5. Brazilian broker giant XP Inc plans to launch a cryptocurrency trading platform on its platform next year, initially supporting Bitcoin and Ethereum, and will continue to expand before the end of this year. SoMee, a Web3 social media platform, received a $50 million investment commitment from digital asset investment group GEM Digital Limited.

6. According to Reuters, despite the turmoil in the encrypted market, asset management companies have not been deterred. Private market management companies Hamilton Lane and Partners Group have tokenized their funds in the past year. Abrdn, Schroders is also investing in this area.

Encrypted ecological news

1. Stablecoin issuers hold more U.S. debt than Berkshire Hathaway

2. Samsung Securities and other seven large Korean brokerages plan to set up crypto trading platforms next year

3. The founder of Telegram plans to launch a username trading market on the TON blockchain

4. The liquidity of NFT lending platform BendDAO is being stress-tested as TA levels appear to be under stress. At the time the news was recorded, the BendDAO reserve had been replenished and was above 800 t, however, the liquidity was only 5 t, still at a dangerously low level.

5. Binance responds to security rumors: If there is no effective judgment by law enforcement agencies, assets and accounts will be unlocked within a limited time

6. Ethereum fork project ETHW released the first Testnet "Iceberg"

Economic news

1. The Japanese government plans to reform the encryption tax system to prevent start-ups from flowing overseas

2. Afghanistan bans cryptocurrencies, arrests digital currency dealers

3. Powell warned of interest rate hikes, the total market value of cryptocurrencies has fallen below trillions of dollars

4. ECB Governing Committee: Will discuss raising interest rates in September, at least 50 basis points

5. First Deputy Managing Director of the IMF: The priority of economic work is to reduce inflation

6. The European Crypto Association sent a letter to the Council of the European Union, asking MiCA to reduce restrictions on non-euro stablecoins

7. ;IMF: The trend of encrypted assets is more consistent with Asian stock markets, highlighting the need for supervision

Long-term insight: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state

Mid-term exploration : Used to analyze what stage we are in, how long this stage will last, and what situation we will face

Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the possibility of some directions and certain events under certain conditions Sex

Long term insight

Long and short-term participants chip distribution

The state of super giant whales

The overall growth of the market

This week, we will focus on the discussion from the perspective of price attractiveness.

(The chip distribution of long-term and short-term participants in the picture below)

Judging from the state of chip distribution, long-term investors are more willing to buy assets below 20,000 US dollars, and the proportion is gradually increasing.

Above $20,000 to $25,000 is mainly a short-term speculator, which creates a lot of price volatility risk.

Judging from the previous period of time, the market stability and buying effect achieved by long-term investors are stronger.

(The state of the super giant whale in the picture below)

The super giant whale fell into a stagnation and band state below about 20,000 before.

Of course, there are also some institutional accounts in the middle, which involve account rebalancing and centralized disposal of usage status, so on the other hand, super giant whales also have a certain amount of noise.

(The overall market growth in the figure below)

The overall growth of the market has come to a temporary stagnation. Under the boundless pressure and anxiety, there is the Federal Reserve at work, but there is no purchasing power at work, which makes the overall market wait-and-see sentiment spread, and even fall into hesitation.

Participants should pay attention to overall risk control.

But generally speaking, the price below 20,000 is the price preferred by long-term investors. In the future, you can choose the fixed investment method to smooth the risk.

Mid-term exploration

Active addresses, new addresses and speculation

The transaction volume of Bingtang Orange and Auntie

Profit address percentage

Long-term and short-term chip distribution

Short-term traders unmoved supply and net positions

Long term traders unmoved supply and net positions

Short term To long-term realized value

high-quality selling pressure

Bingtang Orange and Auntie’s coin-day destruction amount

Average selling age of Bingtang Orange and Auntie

Net position of Bingtang Orange trading platform

Auntie trading platform net position

net position of giant whale trading platform

stable coin supply

net position of stable currency trading platform

non-liquid supply

miner unmoved supply

supply held by small players

Activity rating: insufficient new users, weak liquidity

(active addresses, new addresses and speculative sentiment in the figure below)

Through the 30-day moving average of new addresses and active addresses, the results shown in the figure above are presented.

Red line: 30-day moving average of new addresses

Green line: 30-day moving average of active addresses

Purple zone: speculative sentiment

Both the red line and the green line show signs of rising slowly, in this case The situation is still relatively good, which may be due to the fact that the internal market activity within 30 days is relatively good, but the speculative sentiment fed back by the green area is always in a low area.

The market cannot start without the influx of new users. The current weak speculative sentiment of new users may cause problems such as insufficient market liquidity and difficulties in upward movement.

(The trading volume of Bingtang Orange and Auntie in the picture below)

Observe the changes in the trading volume between Bingtang Orange and Auntie. The trading volume of Auntie has relatively slowed down the decline in trading volume. The range of variation is small.

(Percentage of profitable addresses in the figure below)

The current percentage of profitable addresses has hit a new low in 3 months, with a value of around 52%. Gainers have not left the market in large quantities, and may currently prefer to wait and see.

Supply rating: long-term accumulation, short-term selling

(Long-term and short-term chip distribution in the picture below)

There are still many short-term bargaining chips at this stage. Due to the large supply and the short distance from the current price, they May be one of the dominant groups of illiquidity.

(Untouched supply and net positions of short-term traders in the figure below)

The selling sentiment of short-term traders is obvious, and the current obvious selling behavior may There will be a certain emotional effect, and it also reflects that traders who participated in the market within half a year are more confused.

(Unmoved supply and net position of long-term traders in the figure below)

Long term traders have shown a huge increase recently volume, which is absorbing lost supply from short-term traders.

There are differences between long-term chips and short-term chips,

On the other hand, in the process of market consolidation and repair, the patience of long-term traders in holding coins is often examined. Their accumulation effect will gradually transfer the chips in the market to them, thereby reducing the rock sugar available for sale in the market in the short and medium term orange.

Currently, they added 10.6 million rock sugar oranges in 30 days.

(The short-term to long-term realized value in the figure below)

This indicator measures the ratio of holders within 24h to holders of 6-12 months.

At present, it has touched the pink area below 0.04. At this stage, the lack of new force support will increase the recent market activity, which will cause the market to lack a certain driving force and liquidity supply.

Market selling pressure rating: high-quality selling pressure is low, selling pressure The mood is slowly falling back

(high-quality selling pressure in the picture below)

The recent performance of high-quality selling pressure is still hovering in a lower range, which means that the high-quality holders in the market are not currently releasing large-scale Sell pressure.

(the daily burning amount of Bingtang Orange and Auntie in the picture below)

Bingtang Orange and Auntie’s coin-day burning volume is slowly shrinking, and the current coin holders have not shown any major selling sentiment.

(The average selling age of Bingtang Orange and Auntie in the picture below)

Judging from the current situation, the average selling age of the concubine has increased sharply recently, but it has fallen back to a low position, which is too high The phenomenon of numerical anomalies caused by selling age has been suspended.

Buyer-seller net position ratings: Buyers prefer to accumulate or wait and see, stablecoins Insufficient supply

(The net position of Bingtang Orange trading platform in the picture below)

< img src="https://image.blockbeats.cn/upload/2022-08-30/c9aa89975633e6bb003d984bb9d20246c46b5927.png?x-oss-process=image/quality,q_50/format,webp">

The accumulation rate of Bingtang orange is relatively slow.

(Net position of Yitai trading platform in the picture below)

Auntie has seen a large number of "buy outflows" on the trading platform. It may be that the current price is relatively attractive, which has aroused the interest of some large-scale buyers in the market.

(stable currency supply in the figure below)

USDT users tend to wait and see.

USDC has a small reversal, and it still needs time to fix it.

(The net position of the stable currency trading platform in the figure below)

USDC returns to the trading platform in a small amount, which may form potential purchasing power;

USDT currently tends to flow into trading platforms.

(The net position of the giant whale trading platform in the picture below)

The giant whales have currently reduced their potential selling pressure on the trading platform and tend to favor weak accumulation.

Ratings of each group: slow accumulation of large groups, shrinking and selling of giant whales, Miners sell, small volume accumulation

(Illiquid supply in the figure below ）

The illiquid supply group is slowly compressing the space for sellers in the market.

(The miners in the picture below have not moved the supply)

The miners have recently reduced their holdings to a large extent, which may put some pressure on the market.

(The supply held by the small players in the picture below)

Small players are slowly increasing their holdings, and they have a high degree of confidence in the current market.

Short term observation

Long liquidation advantage, futures open interest rate of change

funding rate, average transaction fee

coins Standard, U standard contract volume

Put/Call position ratio

active address, new address

;Profit and loss transfer amount

Short-term holder profit and loss selling ratio

coin-day destruction amount, total transfer amount

Global Time Zone Purchasing Power

Balance of Stablecoin Trading Platform

Off-chain data

Derivatives Rating: Long Liquidations Near High, Leveraged Trading Up

(Long liquidation advantage, futures open interest rate of change in the figure below)

At present, the growth rate of open interest in derivatives has slowed down, and the leverage risk has initially increased to a certain height.

In general, the liquidation advantage of bulls has risen to around 55%, and the liquidation of bulls has reached a warning level, and it is necessary to remain rational in the short term.

(funding rate, average transaction fee in the figure below)

The funding rate is currently negative, which means that there are too many short-selling funds at the moment.

In general, the average cost continues to decline, which means that the transaction activity on the chain is relatively low, and the current derivatives have a slightly higher impact on the market than the spot market.

(coin standard, U standard contract volume in the picture below)

Coin-standard contracts and U-standard contracts have risen rapidly in the short term, due to the following two factors:

1, to increase a large amount of hedging in the short term to deal with market risks .

2. In the downturn of the market, there are still a large number of investors with currency-based thinking mainly hoarding coins .

(Put/Call position ratio in the figure below)

After a large number of contracts were delivered around the 26th, the market’s bearish ratio increased again, and mature investors resumed Added bearish protection for the market outlook.

Spot Market:

Active status rating: decreased liquidity, no significant recovery in mood

(active address, new address in the picture below)

New addresses in the market continue to decline, under weak market sentiment,

There are fewer potential incremental users, and less additional funds that can be brought indirectly.

Comprehensive changes in active addresses show the same trend, which means that the market liquidity has declined recently and sentiment is depressed. Even if there was a large decline before, there is no obvious recovery.

(Profit and loss transfer amount in the figure below)

The increase in loss transfer volume has slowed down.

The amount of profit transfer continues to drop to a low level, and the market's profitability is low in the short term.

In the short term, we need to pay attention to changes in loss sentiment.

(Short-term profit and loss selling ratio of short-term holders in the figure below)

Threshold 1 is the short-term holder’s profit and loss selling balance point, above 1 means that short-term holders sell at a profit, otherwise they sell at a loss.

The market went up in July, and the indicator was only close to 1, which became the upper resistance. This means that short-term investors are only selling at or near the cost basis.

This reflects the risk-averse psychology of investors, and they choose to pay back their money and pocket it.

Recently, it has begun to decline again, which means that the decline has caused short-term speculators to sell at a loss, which reflects the sluggish trading sentiment of investors from the side.

Selling pressure rating: slightly up

(the amount of currency destroyed per day and total transfer amount in the picture below)

Bingtang orange has a certain amount of high coin age that moves, and the short-term Domestic demand pays attention to the potential pressure on the market.

Purchasing power rating: low

(purchasing power of global time zone in the picture below)

The purchasing power of European and American time zones began to decline continuously,

Asia The purchasing power of the time zone is currently turning to a downward trend.

In the short term, the purchasing power of the global time zone is weak, and the market support is weak.

(The balance of the stablecoin trading platform in the picture below)

The balance of the USDT trading platform has increased significantly in the short term, and the possible factors are:

1. Based on the derivatives mentioned above, the volume of U-standard contracts has increased.

2, it is the source of funds for market chips to undertake after the sharp drop.

Off-chain data rating: around 18300 has purchasing power

(Binance trading platform order book below)

Binance has a buy-side pending order around $19,200.

(Bitfinex trading platform order book below)

Bitfinex has a buyer pending order around $18300.

(Coinbase trading platform order book below)

Coinbase has a buyer pending order around $17800.

This week’s summary:

Message summary:

Regulatory actions in the encryption market affect investor sentiment, and the monetary policies of various countries continue to exert pressure.

Investment banks raised terminal rates to 4%.

At the current rate hike of 75 basis points, that would be just 0.75% away from a potential 4% terminal rate.

That is 3 times of 25 basis points, probably in November, December and next February.

The starting point of this wave of interest rate hikes started with a large rate hike brought about by high inflation, and panic followed

It will also gradually cool down with the expected decline in interest rate hikes.

German energy is soaring and Europe is in crisis. Since this round is mainly caused by the supply side, the Fed only increases inflation Breathing won't do much.

What we can do now is to delay as much as possible and wait for the supply side to improve.

Only from the market side, September may be a very difficult month, or even a bad month One month, of course, at the same time, there may also be some opportunities for regular investment.

The most important sentiment will eventually come, and as time goes by, it may be in the first quarter or even the second of next year. Ahead of the quarter, the dollar may start to weaken on weaker interest rate hikes.

The corresponding risk assets may show a repair effect.

Long-term insights on the chain:

1. Looking at the state of chip distribution, long-term investors are more willing to buy assets below $20,000, And the proportion is gradually increasing.

2. The super giant whale fell into a stagnation and band state before about 20,000.

3. The address of the super giant whale involves institutional accounts, warehouse adjustment, risk control and other operations, which will generate some noise .

4. Under boundless pressure and anxiety, the overall growth of the market has come to a temporary standstill.

Market setting:

Get caught in a circle and change hands.

Interim exploration on the chain:

1. There are still some signs of activity on the chain, but the current problem is the lack of new forces;

2. Short-term chip reduction may also be one of the main reasons for the current lack of liquidity.

3. The macro selling pressure begins to decline, and the old age and high currency volume shrink the selling pressure;

4. The net position of the trading platform shows that Bingtang Orange is still slowly accumulating, and Auntie has a large withdrawal phenomenon;

5. USDC returns to the trading platform slightly, and capital outflows slow down slightly; USDT is still inclined to wait and see;

6. The illiquid supply group is still accumulating slowly, miners sell a lot, and small players choose Overweight, the giant whale shrinks the potential selling pressure on the trading platform.

Market setting:

Changing hands, testing

Insufficient new force, weak liquidity supply, current market buying Everyone tends to accumulate, and the selling pressure slows down;

In September, we may pay attention to the liquidity changes in the market.

On-chain short-term observation:

1. The proportion of long liquidation is about 55%, which is close to the high level.

2. The funding rate is negative, and derivatives have a higher impact on the market than spot products.

3. Coin-standard and U-standard contracts have increased significantly.

4. The options market is bearish slightly higher.

5. The market is less active and liquidity is declining.

6. The increase in loss transfer volume has slowed down.

7. Short-term investors have sold at a loss recently.

8. The selling pressure increased slightly.

9. Purchasing power is low.

10. Off-chain data near 18300 has purchasing power

11. The probability of not breaking through 23500-24000 is about 60%.

Market setting tone:

Hovering at a low level, lack of purchasing power, the market needs to be repaired.

Risk warning:

The above are market discussions and explorations, not directional opinions on investment; please treat and prevent market black swan risks carefully.