Cryptographic Market Q2 data composite replay: Bitcoin beats global markets

Original title: "Cryptographic Market Q2 Data Composite Recovery: Bitcoin Beats Global Markets"

By Qin Xiaofeng, Odaily Planet

In the first quarter, major financial markets underperformed as a result of the coronavirus and a crude oil price war, U.S. stock market fuses and bitcoin halved in value.

In the second quarter, central Banks around the world announced stimulus measures to boost confidence and financial markets began to recover. The S&P 500 jumped more than 20 per cent, its biggest quarterly gain since Q4 in 1998. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose 12% and the MSCI Asia Pacific index rose 15%.

The cryptographic market also rebounded strongly, with bitcoin production halving and breaking through the $10,000 mark, with a quarterly rise of nearly 60%. It ended the quarter above $9,000, up 42% for the quarter and outperforming the wider world.

In addition, the share of Bitcoin in the cryptographic market has remained above 60%, and the shanzhai season is far from over.

Contents of this article:

(Tips, you can go directly to the section you are interested in.)

Overall performance of cryptographic market: total market value increased by 46.5%

Top 10 by market capitalization: CRO tops top 10

Bitcoin halved and failed to soar

Taiwan dollar trend: MX leading the way, ZB poor performance

Stability currency continued to issue, USDC emerging

Derivatives: Options trading at record highs

DeFi new play: Borrow is mine

Stocks and gold underperformed Bitcoin

I. Overall performance of encryption market: total market value increased by 46.5%

According to CoinMarketCap, the total market value of cryptocurrencies closed at $260.675 billion in Q2 2020, up 46.5% quarter-on-quarter and up 53%. But the market capitalisation has never broken the $300bn mark, peaking at $284.2bn on June 2. As shown below:

(Q2 The total market value of cryptocurrencies, pictured above, from NBSP; CoinMarketCap)

In addition, in the past three months, the growth of total market value showed a gradually decreasing trend: the growth rate in April was 39%, in May 9.19% and in June -3.57%. As shown below:

(The data comes from NBSP; CoinMarketCap, map by Odaily Planet)

From the perspective of trading, the average daily trading volume in Q2 reached 91.34 billion US dollars, down 37.3% from the previous month. In particular, in the past month, the average daily trading volume has further shrunk, with the average daily trading volume less than $70 billion in June.

It's worth noting that the peak in one-day trading didn't occur on June 2, when Bitcoin hit its quarterly high of 10,299 USDT; Instead, on April 30, when trading peaked at $252 billion, bitcoin surged more than 10 percent that day, peaking near 9,500 USDT.

Comparison of top 10 currencies by market capitalization: CRO tops the top 10

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum performed well in the second quarter. The ranking of other currencies by market capitalisation has changed from the first quarter: OKB dropped out of the top 10 and CRO replaced it at number nine; BNB is up to eighth; EOS, dubbed blockchain 3.0, did not drop out of the top 10 this quarter.(NOTE: CRO is a Crypto.comChain on the real-time crypto payment block Chain, a token from the former Monaco(MCO) project, which is mainly used to pay fees, dividends and rewards.)

Among the top 10 currencies by market value, according to BitUniverse data, 2020& NBSP; The top three currencies for Q2 price increases are CRO (+158.69%), ETH (+70.51%) and BTC (+42.07%). The declines were BSV (-5.03%) and XRP (-0.13%), respectively. As shown below:

(Note: The top ten currencies are not included in USDT, and are separately counted in the following text. Data are drawn from BitUniverse, Odaily Global)

In Q2, CRO rose the most, reaching 208.18%. BCH was the weakest performer with the highest gain of 26.75%. As shown below:

(Note: The top 10 currencies are not included in USDT, data from BitUniverse, drawing of Odaily Global Daily)

In terms of amplitude, CRO has the highest amplitude, more than 200%, and the price fluctuates sharply. Other cryptocurrencies have amplitude of less than 100%. ETH followed with a amplitude of 97% and BTC (67.46%) and BSV (62%) with relatively large fluctuations. The remaining mainstream currency, volatility is relatively weak, which also means that the market attention is less hot, speculation willingness is low.

Finally, currencies vary by month. April was the strongest month, with a 56.75% increase. In the volatile market in May and June, CRO has the most brilliant performance, always in a rising trend, up 42.61% and 50.41% respectively. As shown below:

(Note: The top 10 currencies are not included in USDT, data from BitUniverse, drawing of Odaily Global Daily)

In Particular, in June, many tokens showed varying degrees of correction, among which BSV led the decline with a decline of 19.13%. XRP followed close behind, down 14.51. The rest fell by 10% or less in June.

3. Bitcoin was halved and failed to soar

The price of bitcoin halved in the first quarter of this year, dropping to $3,800 at one point before ending the quarter above $6,000. At the time, less than 60 days after bitcoin's third halving, there were hopes for a rebound in the second quarter.

In the end, bitcoin didn't disappoint. For the entire second quarter, bitcoin closed up 42 per cent, with a peak close to 60 per cent, according to BitUniverse.

Bitcoin's performance in the second quarter was consistent with the trend of the past few years. As the Skew data show, Bitcoin yields tend to be positive in the second quarter; Meanwhile, bitcoin's past third consecutive quarter of negative earnings was broken. As shown below:

(Note: The quarterly Bitcoin yield comes as an Skew.)

On current earnings, it looks like Bitcoin is regaining its 2015 trajectory, so it could face a correction in the third quarter.

If you take a closer look at bitcoin's performance in the second quarter, it turns out that the best month for bitcoin was April, when it hit 36%, largely spurred by halving. In particular, bitcoin rose as much as 23% in the last two days of April, hitting 9,500 USDT. The rally continued for nearly a week and eventually helped bitcoin break through the $10,000 mark.

Two days before halving on May 12, however, bitcoin suddenly crashed, falling as much as 17% in a single day to as low as $8,000. Since the completion of halving, Bitcoin has not been able to soar with a wide range between $8,500 and $10,000. During this period, it broke through the $10,000 barrier once (June 2), but it has been unable to stand firm.

The resistance level of $10,000 is undoubtedly a natural chasm for the current Bitcoin, which needs more time to accumulate energy.

The total number of bitcoin transactions reached NBSP; NBSP; in the second quarter, according to Bitcoinity.org. 7.11 million, down 5.3% month-on-month; Specific to a single month, may trading volume is the most, June is the least. As shown below:

(Note: Bitcoin trade volume, data from Bitcoinity.org, map by Odaily Planet)

In the past quarter, bitcoin's share of total market value remained unchanged, rising as high as 69.64% (on May 15) from 65.4% at the beginning of the quarter, up as much as 6.4%. The quarter closed down less than 1% at 64.78%.

Since the third quarter of 2019, the total market value of Bitcoin has been above 60%, accounting for a stable proportion, which means that the bitcoin "blood-sucking market" may continue, while other counterfeit COINS still lack momentum, and the "counterfeit season" is far from over.

(Note: Bitcoin's share, image from CoinmarketCap)

BTC.com data shows that Q2 Bitcoin mining is increasingly difficult, rising from 13.91T to 16.1T, up 15.7%. But on June 4, it dropped 9.5% to 13.73 T. At present, the difficulty of mining is temporarily reported at 15.78t, and the overall Q1 growth rate is 13.4%.

(Note: Difficulty in mining, picture from BTC.com)

In Q2, the average monthly bitcoin block size showed an increasing trend, with a quarterly peak growth of 17.5% and a quarterly close of 5.5%. As shown below:

(Note: average block size per month, data from BTC.com, map by Odaily Planet)

Meanwhile, the total number of bitcoin transactions per month has been rising, from 8702,021 in April to 9192,400 in June, up 5.6%.

(Note: Sum of monthly transactions, data from BTC.com, map by Odaily Planet)

The total number of transactions in Q2 was 26987143, down 3.4% from the previous quarter.

Separately, bitcoin fees rose 136 per cent in the second quarter from the previous quarter to $27.36m. As shown below:

(Note: Bitcoin transaction fees, data from The Block, cartography by Odaily Global)

Fourth, Taiwan dollar trend: MX leads the pack, ZB poor performance

In the first quarter of this year, OKEx briefly triggered a "destruction wave" in the Taiwan dollar, which was followed by a number of exchanges. The Taiwan dollar witnessed an Indian summer, with OKB in particular closing up 66% in the first quarter.

So how did the Taiwan dollar fare in the second quarter?

The Daily Planet selected six exchanges -- OKEx, Coinan, Huobi, Gate, MXC Matcha and ZB -- to compare the Taiwan dollar's performance in the second quarter.

In general, MX has the highest overall increase of 50.06% in Q2, and MX has the highest increase of 109.65%. HT (+25.07 per cent) and BNB (+22.63 per cent) came second. The worst performer in Q2 was ZB, up less than 1% overall.

(Note: TWD Q2 performance, data from BitUniverse, mapping from Odaily Global Daily)

In terms of volatility, MX amplitude is also the largest, approaching 240%; ZB has the smallest amplitude, only 28%.

In addition, the six Taiwan dollars performed differently in different months, as shown below:

(Note: Monthly growth of the Taiwan Dollar, data from BitUniverse, map of Odaily Planet)

BNB was strong in April with MX and BNB up 38.85 per cent and 35.1 per cent respectively; MX was also a strong performer in May, up 23.5 per cent. In June, MX lagged behind, and HT led the way with a slight increase of 1.5% in June. ZB, on the other hand, has been in a downward trend in May and June, except after rallying a bit with the broader market in April, resulting in a quarterly gain of less than 1%.

Fifth, the stability currency continues to issue, USDC  On the map

In the second quarter, the stability currency still did not stop the pace of additional issuance, the total volume has been in continuous growth.

The total stable currency rose 53.2% to $11.44 billion from $7.79 billion at the start of the quarter, according to Dapptotal.com. Compared with the growth rate of 33.8% in Q1, it increased by 19.4% month-on-month.

(Stabilizes the change in the total coin amount, picture from NBSP; Dapptotal.com).

The issuance of stable currency in the first quarter was mainly concentrated in March, while this quarter is more dispersed. In terms of the specific month, the issuance volume in April was the largest, reaching $1.81 billion, up 23.23% on a monthly basis. Additional issuance in May was $1.35 billion, up 14.06% for the month. Issuance in June was $990 million, up 9.04% month-on-month. It is shown as follows: NBSP; & have spent & have spent & have spent

& have spent

(Note: Additional issuance of stabile currency in each month, data from Dapptotal.com, map by Odaily Planet Daily)

In addition, USDT additional speed further accelerated. Data show that the USDT total from early April & NBSP;; Usd 6.26 billion increased to USD 10.11 billion, up by 61.5%, directly pushing USDT to the third largest market value. In the second quarter, the total volume of additional USDT increased by 30% compared with the first quarter. USDT's share of the stability currency's total market value has been rising, from 80.3% at the beginning of the quarter to 84.6% at the end of the quarter.

In terms of the specific month, the amount of USDT additional shares decreased month by month: In April additional shares & NBSP; $1.76 billion, the increase & NBSP; 28.12%; In May, it issued $1.34 billion, up 16.71%. In June, it raised $750 million, up 8%. As shown below:

(Note: USDT secondary issuance in each month, data from Dapptotal.com, map by Odaily Planet Daily)

USDT's otc premium also dropped 2.8% from 102.31% at the beginning of the quarter to 99.36% at the end of the quarter, according to OKEx Trading Big Data. The highest premium for the quarter was at 103.09% on May 27. As shown below:

(Note: USDT otc premium, picture from OKEx)

Longhash data shows that USDT chips are mainly distributed on three exchanges: Huobi (65.18%), Bitfinex (25.16%) and Bitfinex (9.66%).

(Note: USDT chip distribution, picture from Longhash)

It is worth mentioning that the ranking of emerging stable currencies has also changed in addition to USDT. HUSD ranked fourth at the end of last quarter and was replaced by TUSD this quarter, but the top three were always USDC, PAX and BUSD, and the total changes for each month are as follows:

(Note: Monthly changes of emerging stabilizers, data from Dapptotal.com, map by Odaily Planet)

Among them, USDC issued more than 250 million US dollars in June, accounting for 54.1% of the emerging stability currency market, exceeding 50% for the first time, further distancing itself from other emerging stability currencies.

6. Derivatives market: The trading volume of options reached a new high

Experienced the first quarter of the baptism of the crash, the second quarter leverage use tends to be rational.

The big data of OKEx trading shows that the long-short leverage ratio of BTC rose from 0.43 at the beginning of the quarter to 5.04 at the highest, up by 1072%. Still, the leverage ratio is low compared with the first-quarter high of 32.99. The final quarter ended at 1.63, up 279% in a more rational quarter, reflecting investors' optimism for the future.

(Note: BTC long-empty leverage ratio, picture from OKEx)

The Skew data showed that daily trading volume on BTC futures dipped 43% to $6.65 billion at the end of the quarter, down from $11.664 billion at the start of the quarter -- a drop of 45% compared with the first quarter. The peak of daily trading volume came on April 30, when the market reached its peak. $38.4 billion, up 477%. As shown below:

(Note: Daily trading volume of BTC Futures, figure comes from the Skew)

As can be seen from the chart above, the surge in futures trading volume mainly occurred around the time Bitcoin halved (May 12), and lasted for nearly a month. Since June, the volume of bitcoin futures trading has started to decline, especially as it fell as low as $5.028 billion on June 21, the lowest level in 2020.

Total bitcoin futures trading volume closed at $332 billion in June, down 40.39 percent from $557 billion in May, according to The Block.

(Note: Monthly trading volume of Bitcoin futures, picture from The Block)

While trading volume in bitcoin futures has fallen sharply, open interest has risen.

Open position in the quarter was $2.04 billion, rising as high as $3.967 billion (May 1), up 94.5%. In less than a month, holdings have returned to levels last seen before the plunge on Black Thursday in mid-March, the first test of $4 billion in two months. Holdings declined slowly but remained around $3.5 billion; Holdings ended the quarter at $3.46 billion, up 69.6% and up 94.1% from the first quarter. As shown below:

(Note: The amount of positions held in Bitcoin futures comes from the Skew.)

It's also worth noting that the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) set a new record for bitcoin futures trading on May 13, with $530 million in positions and more than 2,500 CME accounts. As shown below:

(Note: Changes in the amount of Positions held in CME Bitcoin Futures Q2. Figure comes from the Skew)

In the second quarter, the options market was even hotter, with positions on several trading platforms hitting record highs.

According to the Skew data, the daily volume of bitcoin options has gone up a whopping 67%, from $448.12 million at the beginning of the quarter to $74.9 million at the end of the quarter. Growth in the second quarter was 340% slower than in the first (406%), but up by $2m. As shown below:

(Note: Changes in the trading volume of options; data comes from the Skew; drawing on Odaily)

In addition, daily options trading peaked at $226 million (June 2), a quarterly high, but did not break the all-time high of $294 million (March 13); Through the second quarter, the average daily trading volume of options held steady at about $100 million. Especially in the last two months, options trading has been more active. As shown below:

(Note: Daily trading volume of options, figure from the Skew)

At CME in particular, trading in bitcoin options has continued to rise since mid-May, reaching a record high of $66 million on May 28.

In addition, option holdings increased by $1.874 billion, up by 272.5%, from $503 million at the beginning of the quarter. It ended the quarter at $1.026 billion, up 103.9%.

(Note: Amount of bitcoin options held. Image comes from the Skew)

Options holdings increased by $356 million in q2 from q1, or 213% month-on-month. As shown below:

(Note: Changes of options positions in each quarter)

If you look at individual exchanges, this quarter has seen all time highs for Deribit and CME bitcoin options positions. Deribit topped out at $1.3 billion (June 25) and CME at $441 million (June 22). As shown below:

In addition, Deribit's market share of bitcoin options trading volume has risen to over 90%, with open positions accounting for over 75%. For Ethereum options, Deribit accounts for 87% of trading volume and 95% of open interest. OKEx accounts for 13% of trading volume and 5% of open interest.

Seven, DeFi new play: borrowing is mining

In the second quarter, the decentralized finance (DeFi) market recovered again.

The data of DeFiPulse shows that the total value of the encryption assets locked in the chain rose to 1.688 billion (June 30) from $538 million at the beginning of the quarter, and the quarterly ending reached 213.7%. Lock-up value increased $1.28 billion, or 970%, in q2 from q1, as shown below:

(Note: Change in quarterly locker value growth, data came from DeFiPulse, and mapping by Odaily)

The number of locked ETH on DeFi increased 15.6% to 3.085 million from 2.668 million at the beginning of the quarter, during which time the number of locked ETH fell to 2.469 million; BTC lock quantity showed an increasing trend and reached a record high: from 1883 to 9364, the quarterly increase of 397.2%.

(Note: DeFi lock BTC total change)

It is also worth noting that lock-up value growth was slow until June 16 before accelerating, as shown below:

(Note: DeFi locked total asset change table, figure from DeFiPulse)

The root cause is the mortgage craze that began on June 16, when the Compound loan Agreement Compound began distributing governance tokens known as COMP tokens.

According to the announcement, 4.23 million comPs will be given to users for free as long as they use Compound agreements for lending transactions, a rule known as' loans-as-mines' or 'liquidity mines' that has led to a surge in locked value along the chain as users engage in Compound lending.

Eventually, Compound overtook MakerDAO to become DeFi's no. 1 by market capitalization.

The total value of Compound collateral increased 611.2 percent to $639 million at the end of the quarter from $89.92 million at the beginning of the quarter. The total value of Compound collateral remains stuck at about $600 million, 22% more than the MakerDAO collateral.

The total value of the collateral on MakerDAO rose by 28% to $539 million from $420 million at the beginning of the quarter. It closed up 6.1% at $446 million.

(Note: Change in collateral value in MakerDAO; figure from DeFiPulse)

MakerDAO's MKR, a native management token, also fluctuated sharply in Q2, rising as much as 155% to $749 from $293 in the quarter. It closed up 55.5% at $455.9.

(Note: MKR price Q2 change, image from OKEx)

The sharp rise of MKR price in this quarter is mainly influenced by the following factors: first, the price of MKR in the quarter overshot due to liquidation; Coinbase's MKR deal, announced in late May, briefly jumped 50%. The MakerDAO community voted to introduce real assets as collateral on June 10, and MKR briefly rose again by more than 20%.

Regarding MakerDAO's introduction of real asset pledge, Odaily planet also wrote about the risks behind it. It is recommended to read "DeFi's introduction of real asset pledge: How Reliable is it?" .

Stocks and gold underperformed Bitcoin

In the first quarter, traditional financial markets were hit hard by the impact of the epidemic and the oil price war. In the second quarter, the world's central Banks announced stimulus measures to boost confidence and financial markets began to recover.

So is Bitcoin outperforming the stock market?

(1) Stock market, gold VS Bitcoin

The second quarter, A - share rebound across the board.

The Shanghai Composite index closed the quarter at 2,984.67, up 8.79%. The Shenzhen Component Index closed above 10,000 points at 11992.35, up 20.32% for the quarter. The chinext index ended the quarter up 30% at 2438.2.

Compared with A shares, the U.S. stock market due to the first quarter oversold, more vigorous rebound.

Among them, the Nasdaq Composite index closed up 36.66% for the quarter and set a new record; The Dow closed up 17.63% and the S&P 500 up 25.49%, its biggest quarterly gain since the fourth quarter of 1998. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose 12% and the MSCI Asia Pacific index rose 15%.

In the second quarter, gold topped $1,700. From $1,574.74 at the start of the quarter, it rose as much as $1,786, up 13.4 percent. It ended the quarter at 1782.24, up 13.17%. As shown below:

(Note: Chart of gold price movements, from Dailyfx)

By contrast, Bitcoin rose even more in the second quarter (42%), outperforming all stock markets and gold.

(2) Correlation analysis

The Skew data shows that before the Bitcoin rally on April 28, bitcoin had a negative monthly correlation with gold, which is typically negative and relatively low; After that, the correlation coefficient increases, occasionally crossing the zero axis (positive correlation), but still below the zero axis most of the time, showing a weak correlation. As shown below:

(Note: Bitcoin's annual/monthly correlation with gold. Image comes from the Skew)

In addition, the annual correlation between bitcoin and gold is gradually decreasing, suggesting that the correlation has weakened further.

Many crypto-investors like to open positions with reference to U.S. stock movements, so what is the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks in the second quarter?

The Skew data shows that, over time, the monthly correlation line coefficient moves from negative to positive, ending at 70% in the last quarter, suggesting a significant positive correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500. That is, there is a high probability that the S&P 500 will rise and bitcoin will rise, so it is feasible to follow the U.S. stock market in the near term. As shown below:

(Note: Bitcoin's annual/monthly correlation with the S&P 500. This image comes from the Skew)

From the perspective of annual correlation, the correlation between the two is also further strengthened, gradually changing from negative correlation to positive correlation.

In terms of earnings, Bitcoin has temporarily outperformed BOTH U.S. and A-shares this year. However, from the perspective of volatility, the uncertainty of Bitcoin is still very strong. In Q2, the volatility of Bitcoin rose to 200% at one time, and though it declined later, it remained above 50%.

(Volatility: Bitcoin, gold, S&P 500)

In addition, volatility on the S&P 500 rose above 100 percent in early April before dropping to around 30 percent. Gold volatility, which at one point approached 50 per cent, remains below 20 per cent.

It can be seen that gold is always the most safe-haven investment means, bitcoin investors need to control the risk of position.

See here, "once lost the dream" coin friends, Q2 asset allocation has a new thinking?

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