BlockVC: halve is close at hand and straddling older cattle is within reach

Original title: 'halving in sight, | BlockVC strategy within reach of older cattle'

Source: BlockVC

After the one-day plunge of nearly 40% on March 12, bitcoin has risen more than 100% from the bottom and rebounded strongly. Despite the disturbance of "negative oil price" during the period, the price of bitcoin has not changed the upward trend of continuous volatility, and it has a relatively high excess yield compared with other asset classes.The medium term v-shaped reversal in bitcoin has been established, and the volatility is expected to climb to the $10,000 level before halving. With the addition of the halving effect and the demand of the macro environment, bitcoin will start the trans-aging bull market after halving by virtue of the property similar to gold, which is negatively correlated with the real interest rate.

A rare breathing space. Don't fight the fed

New crown outbreak triggered a global tsunami has been almost two months, the dow and the nasdaq index has rebounded more than 30% from the bottom and Europe and Hong Kong stocks rebound quickly, gold has hit a record high after the march, and the interest rate and liquidity index fell, explain most short-term liquidity risk has been freed. End of February slump in global capital markets continue cause liquidity shocks and global dollar shortage to markets in ischemic shock, once in more than a month since the market started from the flurry categories of asset correlation, volatility and risk appetite slowly repair, benefit from these three indicators at the same time, repair, periodic news vacuum breathing window and marginal return of liquidity, cooperate with the gold hit a record high, the currency to realize the value of the v-shaped reversal repair.

The current stage of repair is originated in the United States in order to deal with the outbreak caused by economic shock and financial market dollar shortage introduced by the unprecedented massive fiscal stimulus and matching money, day amount of money into and no bottom line policy determination released a very strong signal, in history repeat decades of paradigm, market have accustomed to the don't do to with the federal reserve.

Source: FED, IMF & NBSP; & have spent

This time the United States and the global government use of fiscal stimulus is beyond the size since 2008, the sum total of all previous crisis stimulus short cycle on the monetary policy stimulus, the fed's balance sheet in just a month swelled by $17700, the fed's rate cut using the convenient, repurchase, various financing tools, also USES direct access to the market to buy assets of "bottom line" credit tool, will pay for fiscal 2.5 trillion stimulus measures in the United States, even the role of the global central bank, to provide dollar funding for some other central Banks, the U.S. open "helicopter drop" of money, Flooding the world with dollars, while blocking a new liquidity crisis, is still the mildest respite in global markets. & have spent & have spent

& have spent Source: IMF Research & have spent

The explosive surge in unemployment data in the United States has confirmed that the United States is in a deep recession, and this time the rise in unemployment is more than four times the size of the 2008 financial crisis.

World economy is to rely on government debt and monetary easing inertia cross in front of potholes, if not beyond the potholes, may fall, but even beyond the potholes, may also fall under a cliff - easy cause the accumulation of debt and financial markets increased vulnerability to economic imbalance, of the internal structure of superposition "low growth", "low inflation (price)", "low interest rates" three low impact, the United States was leading the global economy after Europe entered the "Japanization" of rivers.

Low growth, the disappearance of zero interest rates and inflation is becoming a global all the core reason of central-bank money printing, which is the core of the modern monetary theory (MMT) argument, due to negative interest rates and credit has lost the transmission of monetary policy effectiveness, the influence of the sovereign state as long as no serious inflation, can through continuous printing money to pay for government debt, namely financial debt monetization - the government can significantly enhance through debt, a disguised form to send money to the people, through fiscal spending to become real economy "last employer", while the central bank through the printing press to become "the paymaster".

Therefore, the next policy path of the us and other central Banks is also very clear. In order to reduce the impact of the epidemic on the real economy and ensure the scale and intensity of fiscal stimulus, the fiscal will further significantly increase the fiscal deficit, continue to hold down interest rates, and print money "without bottom line" to provide low-cost debt financing.

The macro environment of economic downturn and liquidity easing is the most suitable environment for the sharp rise in the price of gold and bitcoin. The Treasury into negative interest rates, the dollar has depreciated trend, investors for dollar assets investment with high uncertainty, under the environment of negative cash will also bear holding costs, investors will have strong seek "super-sovereign currency" as a store of value investment impulse, gold and currency is the optimal choice, up space. & have spent & have spent

& have spent Data source: Bridgewater  & have spent

From 1945 to now, America's interest rates have covered a complete round and symmetrical cycle of more than 70 years, interest rates have been raised, after 75 years later return to the near 0 axis, the rate of inflation also back to the 1950 or so low, we can already clearly perceive it's the end of the old cycle and on the eve of a new cycle,Although we are now worried about the great depression, the bigger risks in the future lie in higher forward rates and possible inflation (stagflation).

& have spent MMT is the imagination of finance and central Banks left foot right foot "vertical ladder cloud", the central bank continuously offering money to buy government debt, is actually a invisible to residents department "seigniorage", lead to private purchasing power is declining, highly leveraged, long-term debt rate selling pressure, the purchasing power of the recessive exploitation, are likely to undermine confidence in the sovereign currency system. The dollar has been the world's reserve currency for nearly 100 years, roughly the same period in history. Whether or not the global monetary system will change in the next few years, we should all witness history on the basis of holding bitcoin to properly hedge the risk of sovereign currencies. & have spent & have spent

& have spent Data source: Yahoo Finance  & have spent

Halve the countdown 12 sky head back to form a v-shaped reversal

There are only about 12 days to go before the third bitcoin halve that everyone is waiting with bated breath, and many have been waiting for more than two years.

After two days on March 12th and 13th cumulative decline in more than 50%, after the currency hit a more than 2019 years at the end of June and at the end of November 2018, two large space at the top and bottom of the trading day, a large number of field users in 12, 13, two days continuous fall in cutting off, fall trading day of the release quantity means that the price because the court changed hands and formed a huge line the bottom of the level.

Since 3 months ago half expected strong consistency, crowded leveraged trade contract position accumulated huge vulnerability, affected by the epidemic triggered slump in the categories of assets, sharply lower risk appetite, sudden liquidity risk, leverage the trample of the contract, the release of the panic, jointly contributed to the two days of extreme downtrend, causing the amount of days cutting in hand, a large number of users into the short positions.

From the OKEX trading data can see that a large number of long leveraged contract positions in March two days in a row in the collapse of clearing, until the current floor users are still very cautious about opening the contract; From the point of view of the basis of the contract, the basis of the contract has only just turned positive after bitcoin has reached more than 50% from the bottom. A large number of users have been very pessimistic and bearish in the past two months, and have only just reached the turning point of the mood repair.

The global flood of central Banks is essentially the same as writing an "answer" to the last big question in the math of college entrance exams and copying down a bunch of formulas. The main purpose of central Banks is to maintain bond spreads and stable exchange rates, and to support the real economy and stabilize financial markets.

Data source: OKEX  & have spent

V-shaped reversal is seldom appears in the actual movements at the bottom of the form, the currency was a v-shaped reversal, it is because the early abnormal panic and crowded leveraged deals stampede caused extreme market rout, release trading days are tumbling, the vast majority of users in the most cutting away at the bottom of the form fully in hand, and on the vast majority of users to form short positions,Such extreme prices make the market extremely light positions caused by short covering positions, thus forming a v-shaped reversal.

In the process of the reversal, as a result of the early "half of the faith" burst, a large number of retail investors have a very firm short short mentality, position is very light or hold a large number of short positions, in fact, this mentality is very conducive to the reversal of long-term sustained. From the contract basis and sentiment indicators, with the price of bitcoin against the $8,200 resistance line breakthrough, the floor sentiment has only just turned from the unilateral direction of the bearish.As the last 12 days of the halving approach, the two buying forces of short selling and game selling will push bitcoin to continue to maintain a unilateral upward trend before the halving, and it is expected to reach the $10,000 line before the halving.

Source: Coindesk, Grayscale  & have spent

From the historical trend, in the short term 1-2 months after the halving, due to the early game halving event of funds and holdings will be very crowded, a large number of holdings will leave the market to cash out after the good landing, so will form a period of weekly level of shock correction or consolidation platform, then will start across the elderly cattle.If we take dec.10, 2018, as the low point before halving, we will have at least a long-term New Year's eve bull market of over 500 days, which is expected to last until at least around October 2021. With the halving effect and the macro environment guiding the allocation of funds, we are very confident that bitcoin will perform well after the previous two halving.

Original link:https://mp.weixin.qq.com

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