Serenity: Significant excess return opportunities are expected to emerge in AI bottleneck areas by 2027.

BlockBeats news, November 15 — Serenity posted that Jensen Huang's management experience at Nvidia reveals an important supply chain strategy: if a company can lock in key material supply in advance at a relatively low cost, and thereby prevent competitors from suffering tens of billions of dollars in economic losses due to supply shortages, then locking in capacity in advance carries extremely high strategic value. Taking SOI as an example, its photonics business revenue for fiscal year 2028 is projected to be approximately $400 million. This kind of supply chain game will push procurement demand for key bottleneck segments further upstream in 2027, and this trend will not change regardless of whether Jensen Huang continues to lead.

In terms of specific investment directions, areas highlighted by Morgan Stanley deserve attention, including copper-clad laminate (CCL), ABF substrates, printed circuit boards (PCB), and optical module components, but it is more bullish on niche components with lower cost shares and stronger supply constraints, as well as key segments where capacity can be locked in advance at lower cost. Currently, deleveraging pressure and market pessimism are indiscriminately affecting related industry chain targets, making it temporarily difficult for individual stock fundamentals to be fully reflected.

Serenity further stated that looking back at investment performance in 2026, it needs to be more cautious when screening investment targets for 2027. However, as new architectures such as near-packaged optics (NPO) and co-packaged optics (CPO) gradually land across the entire industry ecosystem, key bottleneck segments in the supply chain are still expected to generate a large number of excess investment opportunities.