Analysis: Bitcoin's active supply in loss surpasses profit, historical patterns point to a cyclical bottom

BlockBeats news, November 14th - CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that the proportion of active supply of Bitcoin currently in a loss state has exceeded the proportion in profit. This estimate excludes Bitcoin that has not moved for over ten years. After adjustment, the supply in a profitable state is less than 45%, which means that the majority of Bitcoin within this group is currently trapped in a loss state.

From historical data, when this ratio is below 40%, it usually coincides with the bottom of a market correction phase. Conversely, when the ratio approaches 100%, meaning almost all active coins are in a profitable state, the risk of a market reversal downward increases. The analyst believes that contrarian investing is gradually becoming attractive, that is, gradually building exposure when the market is dominated by losses, and appropriately reducing positions when profitability becomes widespread.