Nvidia falls 4% after hours, with the probability of another 10% drop this month approaching 50%.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on November 9, affected by the Jensen Huang extramarital affair incident, Nvidia's after-hours decline widened, now down 4.11% at $178.97.

On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "Nvidia (NVDA) falling to $160 in November" is 43%. Based on the current after-hours price of $178.97, a drop to $160 corresponds to a decline of 10.6%.

ysgsss bought $2.0k of "No" (3.1k shares, accounting for 30.61%, average price 0.6553). This account has a win rate of 82.6% across 23 markets in the NVDA sector, with PnL +$809 and ROI +8.0%. This trade's investment was 4.6 times their average investment in this sector.

Sam Badawi posted that after Jensen Huang admitted to the extramarital affair, the board has launched an investigation and said there is no reason to believe confidential information was compromised; South Korea's industry minister said the issues currently affecting Nvidia will not affect South Korea's GPU supply inventory already contracted from the company.

On-chain, according to TradingBeats monitoring, a whale starting with 0xc3ed opened a new short position of approximately $5.44 million in NVDA after Nvidia's board issued an independent investigation statement, with an average entry price of $181.33, using 10x cross margin leverage. As of press time, the position has unrealized gains of approximately $65.2k.