OpenAI, Claude, Gemini Model Release Probabilities This Month and Summary of High-Win-Rate Accounts

According to PolyBeats monitoring, the next flagship models currently under discussion for OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google are GPT-6.1 Astra, the next version of Claude named Fable, and Gemini 4 Carbon, respectively.

On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "GPT Astra 6.1+ released on November 6" is 16.5%. The probability of "Gemini Carbon released before November 14" is 77%. The probability of "the next Fable model released within this year" is 94.1%.

BlindestMonk bought $254 of "GPT Astra 6.1+ released on November 6." This account has a 75% win rate across 8 markets in the AI new product launch sector, with PnL +$1.1k and ROI +229.5%. This trade's investment is 4.3 times their average investment in this sector.
4ts3hc bought $1.5k of "Gemini Carbon released before November 14." This account has a 100% win rate across 9 markets in the Gemini sector, with PnL +$3.9k and ROI +69.6%. This trade's investment is 2.35 times their average investment in this sector.
SnapElectionAvoider bought $149 of "the next Fable model will not be released within this year." This account has a 55% win rate across 20 markets in the Claude sector, with PnL +$9.5k and ROI +38.1%. This trade's investment is 0.12 times their average investment in this sector.

OpenAI confirmed on September 28 the cancellation of the originally scheduled October GPT-6.1 Astra; Saachi Jain, head of safety systems, said it did not meet the standards of "task scope and authorization" and "truthfully reporting completed work," and officials have yet to provide a new schedule. In late October, some interpreted Codex "banked reset" as a precursor to release, and others captured "gpt-6.2-astra" appearing in Codex usage, but OpenAI has not confirmed.

On Anthropic's side, recent discussion has shifted more toward "a new model release this month, especially around the IPO roadshow," mixed with unverified signals such as routing tests and the "Mythos 5.5" text in the site's source code.

Google's Gemini Carbon has been officially announced, but public availability has not yet begun; officials say it is undergoing the U.S. government's voluntary pre-release testing, first given to some cybersecurity defenders and Fairwind partners, then "as soon as possible" expanded to developers, enterprises, and consumers; Google's November 2 monthly review still described it as in pre-release.