Anthropic reports 1,127% revenue growth in Q3, probability of IPO this month rises to 85%

According to PolyBeats monitoring, CNBC reported on November 2 that Anthropic's third-quarter revenue was approximately $17B, up about 1,127% year-over-year, while quarter-over-quarter growth slowed from 144% in the second quarter to 47%.

On the prediction market Polymarket, the "yes" probability for "Will Anthropic IPO before November 30, 2026?" stands at 85%. During the tech stock selloff on October 31, this probability dropped to a low of 75%, and has since gradually recovered.

betwick bought $4.7k "yes"; this account has a 69.2% win rate across 13 markets traded in the finance sector, with PnL +$20.1k and ROI +13.6%. This trade's investment was 0.42x their average investment in this sector.
l3t0 bought $4.1k "yes"; this account has a 100% win rate across 5 markets traded in the finance sector, with PnL +$1.4k and ROI +68.5%. This trade's investment was 10.09x their average investment in this sector.
Paul973973 bought $5.0k "yes"; this account has a 78.6% win rate across 14 markets traded in the IPOs sector, with PnL +$726 and ROI +0.5%. This trade's investment was 0.48x their average investment in this sector.

After the revenue announcement, traders' expectations for Anthropic's listing valuation were actually revised downward. On Polymarket, the probability of "Anthropic IPO first-day closing market cap above $1.75T" fell from 63.5% on November 2 to the current 55.5%; the probability of "above $2T" fell from 38.5% to 29%.

Pre-IPO perpetual contract prices are also declining: on October 31, the Anthropic contract on Hyperliquid corresponded to a valuation of approximately $1.9T; data from optimistfi shows that by November 3, the composite price across platforms corresponded to approximately $1.69T, down 3.26% within 24 hours.