error

BlockBeats news, November 3 — According to a Bloomberg Market Pulse survey, if Republicans retain control of both chambers of Congress, the median year-end Bitcoin price forecast among respondents is $90,800; if Democrats win both chambers, the median forecast is $76,450. If the two parties split control of the Senate and House, the median year-end Bitcoin price forecast is $84,100. On the policy front, TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg believes that Democratic control of both chambers is the most unfavorable scenario for Bitcoin and the crypto industry, potentially making it difficult for the CLARITY Act to pass over the next two years; Republicans holding both chambers would be most conducive to advancing crypto policy, but if the Senate majority is limited, the bill could still fall into deadlock. Prediction market data shows a 77% probability of a "Democratic sweep of both chambers," the outcome the market considers most likely.

On short-term price action, QCP noted that with midterm elections and nonfarm payrolls and other events clustered together, Bitcoin's support range is $76,000 to $76,600, with resistance at $79,500 to $80,500. If support is broken, the market will focus on the 50-week moving average at about $75,700 and the 200-day moving average at about $73,100. Well-known trader Doctor Profit posted that this week's U.S. midterm elections and corporate earnings reports from multiple companies could bring significant volatility. He still views $76,000 as the key zone for maintaining the bull market structure, citing reasons including the level's proximity to the prior breakout zone, an important weekly support, and the 50-week moving average. He said at least 2 to 3 daily closes below that level are needed to confirm a breakdown; if it fails, there is risk of a pullback to $67,000 to $69,000.

Risk Dimensions Chief Investment Officer Mark Connors, however, believes that for year-end positioning, closely watching prediction markets and initial exit poll results is a waste of time. Even if Democrats control both chambers, crypto asset adoption still has the support of regulators and large financial companies. He maintains a 2027 Bitcoin target of $180,000. Analyst Benjamin Cowen believes that the fourth-quarter selloff in midterm election years typically offers buying opportunities for investors who have already sold. In the fourth quarters of 2014, 2018, and 2022, BTC fell 17.3%, 43.5%, and 14.8%, respectively, all three during bear markets. Longer-cycle data shows a different result: CoinDesk statistics show that, excluding 2010 when the market size was extremely small, BTC rose an average of 53.7% in the 12 months after the past three midterm elections. But the sample is limited, and the rebound may also stem from the halving cycle rather than the elections themselves.

In a report dated November 2, André Dragosch, Head of European Research at Bitwise, and researcher Luke Deans emphasized that no statistically significant impact of midterm election odds on the performance of major crypto assets has been found so far. Compared with elections, tightening financial conditions, inflation, and AI trading risks are more important; before the global growth expectation repricing is completed, Bitcoin's short-term downside risk may still be relatively high.