Midterm Election BTC Performance Review: Market Bottoms Often Around Elections, Post-Election Year Gains Historically Substantial

BlockBeats news, November 2 — The U.S. midterm elections will be held on November 3. Looking back at crypto market performance during past election periods, Bitcoin has shown a pattern of "weaker in election years, recovering the year after." According to HTX market data, in the 12 months following the three midterm elections in 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin rose approximately 24.5%, 44.9%, and 92.3%, respectively.

At the same time, the midterm election years themselves were mostly bear markets, with Bitcoin falling about 56% in 2014, about 73% in 2018, and about 64% in 2022. The fourth quarter of those same years also mostly saw negative returns: about -16.7% in Q4 2014, about -42% in 2018, and about -14.8% in 2022. Short-term volatility was even more severe; for example, in 2018 Bitcoin plunged about 45.5% in the month after the election before gradually rebounding. Market bottoms often occurred around the elections: about 71 days after the 2014 midterms, about 38 days after 2018, and about 13 days after 2022.

It is worth noting that midterm elections highly coincide with Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle. Compared with the midterms themselves, macro liquidity and cycle positioning have a greater impact, and historical samples are limited, so simple linear extrapolation is not appropriate.

In this midterm election, American voters will elect all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats, and multiple governorships, directly determining who controls Congress during the remaining two years of Trump's term. Republicans currently hold a slim majority in both chambers (House approximately 218-214, Senate 53-47), but Trump's approval rating has fallen to a historic low of around 32%. Factors such as inflation, the Iran war, and tariff policies have fueled voter dissatisfaction. Polls generally show Democrats leading nationwide, and most forecasting models believe Democrats have a relatively high probability of winning the House, while the Senate is in a dead heat. Republicans are making an all-out effort to hold their majority seats, but historical patterns show that the ruling party often loses in midterm elections.