US September CPI Preview: Institutions Expect Core Inflation to Slow, Headline CPI Could Rise to 3.7% Year-over-Year

BlockBeats news, October 12 - Multiple Wall Street institutions predict that the month-over-month growth rate of the US September core CPI will slow from 0.29% in August to 0.21%, but driven by rising energy prices, the overall CPI month-over-month growth rate is expected to rise to 0.58%, with the year-over-year growth rate potentially approaching 3.7%.

The median forecast from institutions shows that the US September overall CPI will rise 0.58% month-over-month and 3.64% year-over-year; the core CPI will rise 0.21% month-over-month and 2.40% year-over-year. Additionally, the median forecast for the month-over-month growth rate of core PCE is 0.21%.

Specifically, Deutsche Bank predicts a 0.16% month-over-month increase in core CPI, the lowest forecast among statistical agencies; Morgan Stanley predicts a 0.62% month-over-month increase in overall CPI, the highest forecast. Overall, the market expects core inflation pressures to ease somewhat, but rising energy prices may push overall inflation higher.