Analysis: Bitcoin may fluctuate between $81,300 and $84,500 this week, with Wednesday's CPI to determine the subsequent direction.

BlockBeats news, October 12 — Bitfinex Alpha released a report stating that Bitcoin's price action this week will be influenced by the U.S. CPI data scheduled for release on Wednesday and the strength of spot buying. The report expects BTC to most likely oscillate between $81,300 and $84,500 ahead of the CPI release.

The report noted that BTC pulled back 7.9% from its October 2 high of $87,197 and briefly fell to $80,347 on October 8, before reclaiming $81,300, the prior range high. During the same period, approximately $1.18 billion in positions were liquidated in the crypto market, and open interest has not yet recovered significantly since then, meaning the next leg will depend more on spot market demand.

Currently, spot demand remains the weaker link in the market. Bitcoin ETF investors' average holding cost is approximately $84,340, slightly above the current price, and if the market rebounds, some investors may choose to sell near their cost basis.

On the macro front, the U.S. core PCE inflation rate stands at 3%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury real yield is 2.91%. The report argues that if core CPI month-over-month growth does not exceed 0.2%, rate expectations could be revised lower, providing upward momentum for BTC; if it reaches 0.3% or higher, spot buying will face greater pressure.

The report stated that if BTC effectively breaks above $84,500 with the support of ETF inflows, the next target could be the year's opening price of $87,722; if it continues to fall below $81,300 and ETF funds flow out again, attention should be paid to the true market mean of approximately $77,400.