Hormuz talks stall again, crude traders bearish on WTI this month.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, expectations for a de-escalation around the Strait of Hormuz suffered another setback in the past two days. On October 11, Iran's Supreme National Security Council said the latest U.S. response was "insufficient"; according to the Iranian position, unless the U.S. lifts its maritime blockade and provides sanctions relief, Iran will not commit to stopping attacks on international oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

On the prediction market Polymarket, betty4 bought $926.96 of "No" on "Will WTI crude oil futures hit $100 in October?" at an entry probability of 64.67%. This trader has made 123 trades in the oil sector in total, with a 63% win rate and a PnL of +$2.1k, and this bet is 10.69 times their median bet size.

As of publication, based on the market-designated Pyth active-month basis, the WTI contract is quoted at $90.24; it still needs to rise about 10.8% to reach the $100 threshold.

On October 10, Trump announced that the United States would receive an initial batch of about 300,000 tons of diesel from Russia, with an additional about 500,000 tons in November; however, the Associated Press, citing energy experts, said the arrangement is unlikely to significantly change U.S. retail prices. It is essentially a refined product supply arrangement, not new crude oil production capacity or a Strait of Hormuz transit agreement, so it is more like a marginal measure to ease diesel tightness and may not be enough to directly reduce the geopolitical risk premium in WTI.