SPX's probability of closing higher on Monday drops 20 percentage points; smart money in 3 sectors concentrates on one side.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "SPX closing higher on October 12" dropped from 79% to about 60% over the past five hours. The bearish thesis mainly revolves around a macro transmission chain: elevated oil prices push up inflation expectations, which in turn support Treasury yields, increase pressure on the Fed to co