Analysis: Bitcoin long-term holder MVRV rebounds to 1.35, has exited the shallow pressure zone.

BlockBeats news, September 29 — CryptoQuant analyst Zizcrypto posted that the adjusted Long-Term Holders (LTH) MVRV metric has recovered from a shallow stress zone and has now returned to profitability. Data shows that the adjusted MVRV for the 6-month to 10-year holding period long-term holder cohort continued to compress in April this year and stayed above 1.0. An MVRV of 1.0 represents the cohort's overall break-even line; above 1.0 means unrealized profit, while below 1.0 indicates unrealized loss.

Between June and August, the metric fell below 1.0 five times, hitting a 2026 low of about 0.94 on June 30, when BTC price was around $58,500, while the cohort's realized price basis was about $62,000, roughly 6% below the break-even line. However, Zizcrypto said the duration and magnitude of this stress were relatively limited, with the metric staying close to 1.0 throughout and never entering the deep-loss phase for long-term holders seen during 2019 and 2022-2023.

As of September 27, the adjusted LTH MVRV had recovered to about 1.35, with BTC price around $84,500, while the long-term holder realized price was about $62,700, putting spot price roughly 35% above that cost basis. The 6-month to 10-year holding period long-term holder cohort has moved out of the shallow below-1.0 stress phase and returned to overall profitability, looking more like a recovery after a healthy correction rather than a deep or sustained loss cycle.