Probability of Anthropic's IPO closing with a market cap above $2 trillion on its first day exceeds 70%.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, based on the probability shown by the prediction market Polymarket for the "Anthropic IPO first-day closing market cap range," the probability of "less than $2T" is currently about 26%; the probability of "$2T - $2.25T" has risen from 2% three months ago to 25% now.

Among traders in the "$2T - $2.25T" range, 3 accounts with outstanding performance in related sectors currently hold "Yes":

DancewithRisk bought $2.82k "Yes" at a buy probability of 23.67%. It has made a total of 50 trades in the IPO sector, with a win rate of 58%, PnL +$3.2k, and this investment is 8.30 times its median investment.
DEGENKHAN bought $222.44 "Yes" at a buy probability of 21.45%. It has made a total of 253 trades in the financial sector, with a win rate of 78%, PnL +$7.4k, and this investment is 1.01 times its median investment.
Sylvester.the.Cat bought $236 "Yes" at a buy probability of 23.59%. It has made a total of 20 trades in the AI sector, with a win rate of 65%, PnL +$2.9k, and this investment is 0.29 times its median investment.

On September 28, the prospectus seen by Reuters showed that Anthropic's 2025 revenue is about $4.6b, not $46b as some paraphrases stated; the report also clearly wrote for the first time in the context of the prospectus that this IPO may value Anthropic at more than $2T.

According to Dongcha Beating, Trump will have lunch with executives from 6 tech companies at the White House today to discuss AI risks and government regulation, including Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei.

Dario publicly advocated slowing down AI development in mid-September and proactively requested strong regulation by third-party evaluators. Trump subsequently called Dario a "pretend angel" and insisted that "AI development should be accelerated, not slowed down"; on September 27, Trump arranged a meal with Dario, after which the former changed his tone toward the latter and said he "respects him very much."