Bitunix Analyst: RBA Raises Rates to 4.60%, Inflation Pressure Extends Global Tightening Cycle

BlockBeats news, September 29 — Global inflationary pressures have once again drawn attention. The Reserve Bank of Australia announced a 25 basis point rate hike to 4.60%, stating that further tightening remains possible if necessary. Although Australia's consumption and housing markets have cooled somewhat, economic growth and inflation have outperformed expectations. Combined with Middle East conflicts driving up energy prices and AI demand pushing up technology product prices, the central bank finds it difficult to ease monetary policy prematurely. This reflects that when energy and technology demand jointly drive up costs, even as economic activity gradually slows, inflation may still limit global room for rate cuts.

Commodity markets, meanwhile, are showing deeper supply risks. Deutsche Bank noted that the U.S. is continuously stockpiling copper due to tariff expectations, squeezing available spot supply in other regions. In an extreme scenario, the bank estimates that if the stockpiling trend continues, copper prices could rise to $22,050 per ton by the second quarter of 2027, though this is not its base-case forecast. What truly deserves attention is that global book inventory does not equal freely circulating supply; when inventory is locked up by specific markets, even without a significant increase in demand, spot shortages could push up prices and further increase cost pressures on power grid construction, AI data centers, and manufacturing.

For financial markets, these two developments share a common transmission mechanism: rising energy and raw material prices may delay the decline in inflation, forcing central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer; if companies simultaneously face rising financing costs and input costs, the discount pressure on valuations from future earnings will also increase. Going forward, the market focus should not be solely on whether central banks will cut rates, but also on whether energy prices, industrial raw material supply, and long-end bond yields come under simultaneous pressure. If cost-push inflation persists while economic growth gradually slows, global markets will face the dual test of stubborn inflation and persistently high funding costs, and the liquidity and valuations of risk assets may also be constrained as a result.