With just two trades, a 930% profit was made, as smart money in political markets predicts a dark horse candidate for California governor.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, Ferwhere's trading profile is highly representative: all of the account's profits come from 2 low-probability events occurring, namely the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire (+1482%) and US-Iran reconciliation (+506%).

Ferwhere invested a total of $25,230 in "Will Steve Hilton win the 2026 California governor election?", buying at a probability of 7.43%, with the current probability at 4.7%.

Ferwhere made a total of 54 trades in the politics sector, with a win rate of 11%, PnL of $95,700, and this investment was 50.98 times the median investment.
Ferwhere made a total of 2 trades in the US election sector, with a win rate of 0%, PnL of -$5,600, and this investment was 3.44 times the median investment.
Ferwhere made a total of 89 trades in the 0%–15% entry price range, with a win rate of 4%, PnL of $101,700, and this investment was 49.15 times the median investment.

The California governor election will be held on November 3. Hilton has already advanced from the statewide top-two primary and will face Democratic candidate Xavier Becerra in a one-on-one runoff. A Berkeley IGS and Los Angeles Times poll conducted from September 15 to 20 shows Becerra leading Hilton 58% to 33%, with an advantage of 25 percentage points, further expanding from 18 percentage points in August.

Hilton also faces the constraints of California's long-term partisan structure. The number of registered Democratic voters in the state is nearly twice that of Republicans, and the Republican Party has not won any statewide office since 2006. Trump's endorsement helped Hilton consolidate Republican votes and reach the runoff, but Trump's approval rating in California is only 27%; in the latest poll, Hilton's favorability is 35% and unfavorability is 51%, and more than half of independent voters also support Becerra.