JPMorgan: If Bitcoin holds above $85,000, it will effectively ease miner selling pressure; this rally is driven by short covering.

BlockBeats news, September 25: JPMorgan believes that Bitcoin briefly rose above the bank's estimated average production cost of about $85,000 during this week's rebound. If this change can be sustained, it will provide breathing room for miners under continued pressure and reduce the risk of forced coin selling. Bitcoin had previously remained below this cost line for about 280 consecutive days; as of press time, BTC has fallen back to around $84,600, indicating that the market has not yet truly confirmed a breakout.

The analyst team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou pointed out that production cost has historically been closer to Bitcoin's "soft floor" rather than an absolute price support. When the coin price remains below cost for a long time, miners facing higher electricity prices and equipment depreciation pressure will incur losses and usually sell inventory, shut down mining machines, or exit the market, thereby adding supply to the spot market. If BTC can regain a firm footing above $85,000, miners' cash flow pressure will ease somewhat, and the urgency to sell newly produced Bitcoin will also decline.

What makes this cycle special is that mining companies are accelerating their shift toward AI computing power businesses. JPMorgan said Bitcoin's total network hashrate has dropped about 19% from its high last October, while mining difficulty has fallen about 15%. Some listed mining companies are allocating power, data center, and equipment resources to longer-term AI contracts with more stable revenue, slowing the expansion of new hashrate for Bitcoin mining. The bank believes this will reduce the risk of network overcrowding and slow the pace of production cost increases outside of halving events.

For the market, the significance of $85,000 will be more evident on the supply side. If it becomes an effective support, miner selling pressure will ease somewhat; if the price falls back below the cost line for a prolonged period again, deleveraging and capitulation among high-cost miners may still reappear. JPMorgan also believes that Bitcoin's continued rise after the U.S. Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act is consistent with the previous judgment that short covering drove the rebound.