Analysis: Bitcoin Price Diverges from Demand, ETF Inflows and Exchange Withdrawals for Hoarding Provide Short-Term Support

BlockBeats news, September 23 — CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that although Bitcoin's price is rising, sustained buying pressure remains difficult to rebuild, and market signals are mixed. The 30-day cumulative spot demand stands at -180,000 BTC, still negative, while futures demand is +54,000 BTC, still positive but slightly declining. Total average demand improved from -188,000 BTC to -126,000 BTC, with the gap narrowing but overall still in negative territory. Price and total demand have recently diverged — Bitcoin's price is rising, but total demand has yet to turn positive, indicating that the rally is driven more by easing sell pressure than by strong buying.

Breaking it down by segment, the demand recovery is uneven. On the institutional side, despite a poor geopolitical and macroeconomic environment, the volume-weighted Coinbase Premium briefly turned positive, indicating that U.S. spot markets occasionally commanded a premium relative to other markets, and institutional sell pressure has notably eased. ETFs are the biggest change this cycle — demand has completely flipped compared to this summer, with recent net purchases of approximately 70,000 BTC. The cumulative net inflow for 2026 remains at approximately -17,000 BTC, but is nearing a flip back to positive. On the exchange front, September was dominated by net outflows, skewing toward accumulation rather than distribution. Bitcoin leaving exchanges typically means short-term sell pressure is lighter.

Analyst Darkfost concluded that the current price increase is primarily driven not by strengthened buying, but by investors refraining from adding further sell pressure at higher price levels. The market structure remains fragile.