CryptoQuant Founder: Expects Bitcoin to Rise 3 to 5 Times in This Bull Market, Extreme Volatility to Decrease

BlockBeats news, September 23: CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju posted that Bitcoin is expected to rise 3 to 5 times in this bull cycle, rather than another parabolic surge of more than 10 times, followed by a milder bear market. As Bitcoin's market size expands and institutional holdings increase, the violent rallies and 80% crashes previously driven by retail investors and hot money are being suppressed, and the factors limiting upside are likewise slowing downside risk.

The PNL Index shows that the extremes of Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms are diminishing, while the overall holding profitability level at the time bottoms form is continuously rising. In this cycle, MVRV has never fallen below 1; even at market lows, Bitcoin's price remained above holders' average on-chain cost basis. In addition, realized market cap continues to rise, indicating new capital is flowing in; early whales have stopped selling, and futures market whales have also built large long positions near the bottom. The PNL Index 365-day moving average is currently also forming a clear inflection point.

This does not mean Bitcoin has an upside ceiling, but rather that the market's risk-reward structure is changing. Giving up parabolic gains of more than 10 times also means avoiding extreme declines of 80%; this lower volatility may attract more long-term-oriented capital rather than short-term hot money. He said Bitcoin's development path may ultimately be gradually approaching the vision described by Satoshi Nakamoto, namely becoming an asset stable enough to truly function as money; as Bitcoin further matures, internet-native capital may reshape the global economy in ways far beyond expectations.