Original Article Title: "CryptoQuant Warning: Bitcoin Rebound Weakens, 'Bull Market Index Hits Two-and-a-Half-Year Low,' Key Resistance at $84K–$96K"

Original Article Author: James, BlockTempo at Dooku

According to the CryptoQuant Insights report, following Trump's announcement of a 90-day tariff suspension, Bitcoin experienced a rebound, with ETH and XRP also seeing narrowed losses. Despite the market rebound, CryptoQuant's "Bull Market Score Index" has dropped to 10, reaching its lowest level since November 2022, and it needs to break 40 to demonstrate a sustained bullish trend.

CryptoQuant points out that Bitcoin's current resistance level is between $84,000 and $96,000, and if the uptrend weakens, the gains will be limited, resembling the trend seen in past bear market cycles. While the tariff suspension alleviated trade tensions, it has not reversed on-chain exhaustion indicators such as declining network activity and weak stablecoin liquidity. Earlier this week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp 27% drop, marking its largest drop of the current cycle and showcasing its vulnerability. CryptoQuant concludes that the trend of the Bull Market Index will depend on whether investor confidence can be reignited, and the market still needs to remain vigilant.

Santiment: Tariff Exemption Policy Drives Coin Market Rebound

According to the Santiment report, the tariff exemption policy announced by Trump over the weekend stimulated a rally in the crypto market, significantly reducing the high import costs faced by the tech industry. Bitcoin's price surged to a weekend high of $85,900, breaking through the resistance near $83,000.

Historical data shows that cryptocurrency assets like Bitcoin typically move in sync with tech stocks, especially when investors lean towards risk assets. Strong performance in tech stocks often boosts investor confidence in purchasing cryptocurrencies, so the tariff exemption policy indirectly alleviated pressure on the crypto market.

Furthermore, Santiment points out that the tariff exemptions for semiconductors and computer components have long-term benefits for the crypto ecosystem, as these components are crucial for crypto mining, blockchain infrastructure development, and AI-driven crypto tool creation. If these components can be consistently supplied at reasonable prices, it will aid in the industry's stable operation.

This implies that the operations of cryptocurrency exchanges, wallet service providers, and blockchain technology startups will be smoother.

Although Trump's trade policy remains complex and unpredictable, Santiment believes that this specific exemption for tech devices has provided clear guidance for short-term policy and alleviated pressure on the crypto market. Investor confidence has strengthened, and the inflation risk for consumer electronics has also been mitigated, allowing companies to manage tariffs without raising prices or cutting innovation.

Santiment summarized that the market has seen a modest upward reaction, with expectations of a stock market rise on Monday that will further drive Bitcoin and altcoins higher. However, after the initial reaction, the market will become more uncertain, and public FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment may dampen the uptrend.

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