Analysis: Bitcoin May Test $90,000 After Short Squeeze, but Leverage Risks Heat Up

BlockBeats news, September 22: After breaking through the key resistance level of $82,000, Bitcoin reached a high of $87,300, and approximately $750 million in bearish crypto derivatives positions were liquidated, with the buying pressure generated by short covering further driving prices higher. Since the breakout, Bitcoin derivatives open interest has increased by approximately $2 billion, indicating that market leverage is rapidly flowing back in.

Nansen analyst Nicolai Sondergaard stated that currently "price is turning bullish faster than positioning changes." U.S. spot BTC ETFs, previously hampered by the CLARITY Act and Federal Reserve rate hikes, saw a combined outflow of $746 million on Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by inflows of $160 million and $433 million on Thursday and Friday respectively. The average cost basis for U.S. BTC ETF holders is approximately $82,200, and as BTC broke above that level, ETF investors as a whole re-entered profitable territory.

For the outlook, Sondergaard believes $87,000 is the next key level, followed by $90,000 and approximately $92,000; Wintermute trader Jasper De Maere also believes BTC could test $90,000. However, he noted that breaking above the 50-week moving average is only a positive signal, and significant short-term volatility remains possible.

The market is currently focused on whether spot and ETF capital inflows can continue to follow through. Sondergaard warned that if spot demand cannot match the growth in derivatives leverage, the rally could evolve into a leverage-driven surge and reverse rapidly amid rising U.S. Treasury yields or geopolitical shocks. Wintermute recommends closely watching ETF fund flows, perpetual contract open interest and funding rates over the coming days, as well as this Friday's options expiry.