Morgan Stanley shifts to hawkish camp, predicting the Fed will raise rates twice in a row.

BlockBeats news, September 15: Morgan Stanley turns hawkish, expecting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates twice consecutively within the year. In its latest report, the bank stated that the U.S. disinflation process is slower than expected, and it anticipates the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points this week and by another 25 basis points in December.

Morgan Stanley believes that inflation data exceeding expectations, international oil prices breaking through $100 per barrel, demand resilience from AI investment, and the Fed's efforts to maintain its anti-inflation credibility could all drive further policy tightening. Currently, market expectations for a rate hike this week have risen to 93%.

At the same time, Morgan Stanley retracted its previous judgment that "the European Central Bank's rate hikes have peaked," expecting the ECB to raise rates by another 25 basis points in December, bringing the deposit rate to 2.75%, and postponing the first rate cut to the end of 2027.

However, some economists are cautious about the current rate hike expectations. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, warned that the risk of a serious policy misstep by the Fed is increasing; economists at Standard Chartered and Oxford Economics also believe that the Fed should currently keep rates unchanged and wait for more economic data.