Prediction markets bet on US gasoline prices hitting new highs, with over 70% probability of breaking through $4.60.

BlockBeats news, September 14 — As international oil prices continue to hold above $100 per barrel, U.S. gasoline prices have also climbed to multi-month highs, and prediction market traders are beginning to bet that gasoline prices will set further record highs this year.

According to CNBC, citing Kalshi data, the market currently sees a 71% probability that the U.S. national average gasoline price will surpass $4.60 per gallon in 2026, above the year-to-date high of $4.56 set on May 21. The probability of breaking above $4.80 is 57%, and the probability of breaking above $5 is also over 40%.

The last time U.S. gasoline prices broke above $5 was in June 2022. Meanwhile, Kalshi traders believe high oil prices may persist longer, with roughly a 50% probability that the average gasoline price will still be above $4.25 on November 3, the day of the U.S. midterm elections.

The rise in oil prices is mainly driven by escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, WTI crude oil futures rose about 3.5%, breaking above $103 per barrel.