Goldman Sachs significantly raises optical module demand forecast, supply chain tightness may become the biggest bottleneck by 2027.

BlockBeats news, September 14: After visiting 15 optical communications companies in China, Goldman Sachs significantly raised its high-speed optical module demand forecasts, revising up 2027 and 2028 demand for 800G and above optical modules by 39% and 36% respectively to 144 million units and 171 million units. Goldman Sachs also expects that 1.6T optical module prices will remain above $700, while 800G product price declines in 2027 will be only in the single digits.

Demand growth mainly comes from AI server rack expansion, network architecture extending from scale-out to scale-up and cross-layer interconnection, as well as optical modules continuing to upgrade to higher speeds. The companies surveyed expect overall demand in the Chinese market to achieve double-digit growth, with scale exceeding 50 million units. Currently, 800G and 400G remain dominant, while 1.6T is in the early stages of ramping up.

Goldman Sachs believes that industry constraints are shifting from the demand side to the supply side, with key components such as DSPs, lasers, and PCBs remaining persistently tight, potentially directly limiting actual shipments in 2027. At the same time, leading manufacturers are locking in capacity through prepayments, long-term supply agreements, and investments in suppliers, which may further strengthen industry concentration and support high-speed optical module price performance.

On CPO, Goldman Sachs expects CPO switch shipments to increase from 10,000 units in 2026 to 92,000 units in 2027 and 131,000 units in 2028, with testing and coupling equipment suppliers expected to benefit first. Robotechnik's second-quarter revenue grew 172% quarter-on-quarter, higher than Goldman Sachs' expectation of 141%, and visibility for related equipment orders has extended to 2028.