U.S. August inflation nears the threshold for a rate hike, CICC says a rate hike may resume in September.

BlockBeats news, September 12 — U.S. August inflation data heated up again. A CICC research report pointed out that U.S. August CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, while core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, with both indicators accelerating from the previous period; core CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year, slightly above market expectations.

CICC believes that August inflation performance has already touched the threshold for the Federal Reserve to resume rate hikes, and expects the Fed may raise rates by 25 basis points at its September 16 monetary policy meeting, lifting the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4%.

From a structural perspective, rising energy prices and resilient services prices remain important drivers of inflation, while some AI-related price pressures have also begun to emerge. CICC expects the Fed may lower its unemployment rate forecast, raise its inflation forecast, and lift the rate path for 2027 and 2028 at this meeting, releasing a more hawkish policy signal.

CICC also warned that the bigger risk is that the Fed may hike rates further this year or next year, which means there is still room for the market's current pricing of a rate-cutting cycle to be readjusted.