$20 million cross-market whale consensus reached, still expecting CLARITY to become law within the year at low odds

BlockBeats News, September 8 - According to TradingBeats monitoring, the implied probability of the CLARITY Act being "signed into law within the year" has dropped to 15.5%. Among cross-market whales in this prediction market, only two, who have been long-term active on both Polymarket and Hyperliquid, still retain their previously established Yes positions and have not exited as odds declined.

TwoEyes and Geminae.Columbae currently hold a combined total of approximately 254,600 Yes shares, with a position value of around $39,500 and a combined floating loss of approximately $11,800. Both have average entry costs corresponding to roughly a 20% enactment probability, with market pricing now clearly below their entry levels.

Among them, TwoEyes holds approximately 195,500 Yes shares with an average cost probability of about 20.2%, currently facing a floating loss of around $9,197; Geminae.Columbae holds approximately 59,200 shares with a cost probability of about 19.94%, facing a floating loss of roughly $2,628.

Both still maintain significant crypto asset exposure on the other end.

Hyperliquid data shows that the combined notional size of their current crypto long positions is approximately $19.92 million. TwoEyes holds a BTC long position of around $1.606 million, along with a crude oil short position of approximately $348,000. Geminae.Columbae, meanwhile, holds long positions in BTC, ZEC, LINK, and HYPE, totaling approximately $18.317 million.