The U.S. midterm elections may become a "referendum" on Trump's presidency, with Republicans currently facing fierce competition in both the Senate and the House.

BlockBeats News, September 8 — With less than two months until the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, President Trump's approval ratings and job performance are becoming a key variable in whether Republicans can hold onto their congressional majority. A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Trump's net disapproval rating is nearly double what it was at the same time in 2018, with voters broadly dissatisfied with the economy and the Iran war, and Democratic voters currently showing higher enthusiasm to vote than Republicans.

Republicans currently hold a slim majority in the House of Representatives, 218 seats to 214. If Democrats reclaim control of the House, they would be able to launch investigations into the Trump administration and force the White House to seek compromise on most legislative issues. In the Senate, Democrats need to flip 4 seats from Republicans to gain a majority, but the current electoral map does not favor them.

Independent analysts believe that only 9 of the 35 Senate races are competitive. Even if Democrats win Georgia, Maine, Michigan, and North Carolina, they would still need to win at least two more seats among Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas — states where Trump secured double-digit margins in 2024.

Republicans still hold advantages in redistricting and fundraising, with the new House district map potentially netting the party up to 10 additional seats, and Trump's super PAC currently holding a war chest of $400 million. However, the cost of living remains a major test, as energy costs, tariffs, and trade conflicts impact voters in several key states. Election experts believe midterms are typically viewed as a "referendum" on the sitting president, and whether Trump can re-energize Republican voters will be crucial.