QCP: Strong employment data shifts market focus back to inflation, Bitcoin may await CPI guidance in the short term

BlockBeats News, September 7 — QCP Capital released its latest "Market Colour" stating that the August U.S. employment report came in significantly stronger than expected, with nonfarm payrolls adding 162,000 jobs, far exceeding the market forecast of 55,000 and rebounding sharply from the downwardly revised 21,000 in July. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month. The resilience of the labor market has eased concerns over an economic slowdown, shifting market focus back to inflation and the Fed's policy path.

QCP noted that the crypto market remained broadly supported over the past week. BTC briefly broke above $82,000 before retreating to around $79,300, while ETH held near the $2,500 level. From September 1 to 4, U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded a combined net inflow of approximately $770 million, with September 3 alone seeing a net inflow of $730.8 million, reversing the roughly $236.5 million net outflow seen on September 1.

On market structure, QCP believes the recent price action has been driven more by shifts in the macro environment than by crypto-specific catalysts. Despite ETF inflows providing structural support, BTC has struggled to decisively break through the $80,000–$82,000 range, while ETH continues to face selling pressure above $2,500, suggesting traders remain cautious until inflation data becomes clearer.

This week, market focus will pivot to U.S. inflation data. August PPI is due on September 10, followed by August CPI and core CPI on September 11. With the latest jobs data having alleviated concerns over labor market deterioration, CPI will serve as a key variable in gauging expectations for the Fed's September policy move. If CPI continues to cool moderately, it would give the Fed more room to wait and observe; if inflation reaccelerates, it could reinforce expectations for policy adjustments and drive further repricing of rate expectations.

Currently, BTC faces technical resistance at $80,000–$82,000 with support at $77,000–$78,000; ETH sees resistance at $2,500–$2,550 and support at $2,400–$2,425. With volatility remaining subdued and key data approaching, the market may be awaiting a fresh directional move following the inflation release.