Serenity: Under AI Computing Power Demand, Laser Manufacturers May Have Greater Room for Expansion, Lumentum Case Worth Attention

BlockBeats News, September 7 - Serenity stated that the revenue projections previously based on Sivers (SIVE)'s annual production target of 100 million CW DFB lasers per year were merely illustrative models. The more important reason for their bullish view on laser companies is that such firms are not confined to a single laser product and can further expand into other segments of data center optical communications.

Serenity cited Lumentum (LITE) as an example, noting that after its acquisition of Cloud Light (primarily involved in pluggable optical modules), the potential serviceable market within data centers expanded to more than five times its previous size. Lumentum's OFC demonstration materials also indicated that its ELS business based on UHP laser chips could present approximately a 2x TAM expansion opportunity.

He also pointed out that for a single UHP laser wafer fab's laser business alone, the projected annual revenue after production ramp-up could reach approximately $5 billion. Combined with the 55%-65% gross margin for CPO lasers mentioned by AAOI, lasers themselves already possess strong profitability. Serenity believes that even with continued industry capacity expansion, the laser market may still face a supply-demand gap.

Furthermore, as multiple technology cycles overlap—including NPO, CPO, and 1.6T pluggable optical modules—laser manufacturers are expected to continuously enter new product markets. Therefore, compared to companies that remain confined to a single supply chain tier, Serenity believes the market should potentially assign a higher valuation premium to laser companies.