Analyst: Bitcoin Set to Enter Bull Market, But Price Surge Driven Mainly by Futures Leverage

BlockBeats News, September 4th, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin is nearing the threshold to enter a bull market. In the past 24 hours, the BTC price has risen by 3.9%, with open interest increasing by approximately 11,200 BTC, a 3.4% rise, indicating that this round of upward movement is mainly driven by the derivatives market.

The data shows that open interest briefly increased by 15,200 BTC within 6 hours, with the leverage squeeze index rising to 63. In the past 24 hours, there have been 15 hours in a long position increasing state. Axel pointed out that if the uptrend is mainly driven by short covering and liquidation, open interest usually decreases. However, this time it has increased significantly, indicating that the addition of futures leverage is the main driver of the price increase.

The one-year forward model has not officially shifted to a bull market state yet. A confirmation signal requires the Bitcoin daily close to be above the model's dynamic threshold, and to hold this level without a rapid deleveraging. The main risk is a sudden unwinding of accumulated leverage, leading to a market reversal.