A year ago today, Trump was injured in the right ear by a gunshot during a campaign rally, leaving behind a historic fist-pump photo. Following this event, his election as president officially kicked off the United States' Crypto Capital plan. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price, which was $60,000 a year ago, hit a new all-time high, surpassing $120,000 a year later.

However, more than just Bitcoin's price has changed in this past year. During this period, the market structure of cryptocurrencies has also undergone a significant transformation. Will this be a raging bull market or a phased bull market? What impact has Bitcoin's broad consensus had on the market? Where will the policy direction take cryptocurrency?

After Bitcoin at $120,000, everything must start anew. This article will share the views of multiple traders on the post-market of Bitcoin's breakthrough to a new high.

Macroeconomic Policy Direction

Regulatory Boundary: The CLARITY Act

The most anticipated cryptocurrency-related bill recently is the upcoming vote on the "CLARITY Act" bill scheduled for Wednesday, which has also generated a high level of discussion in the community. This bill will define the regulatory boundaries for cryptocurrency.

According to Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer in a recent research report, the "CLARITY" Act could be a turning point for the digital asset market. Due to the uncertainty in legal compliance, many institutions are still in a wait-and-see attitude. This legislation may provide long-awaited regulatory certainty for asset management companies, hedge funds, banks, and other traditional financial institutions.

Meanwhile, the trader known as "DeFi Guru" @Trader_S18 believes that as regulatory authority shifts from the SEC to the CFTC, the market may undergo a significant reorganization based on underlying logic, and the coin ecosystem will also differentiate. Mature assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum may be explicitly assigned to CFTC regulation, while other coins that do not meet CFTC standards may still fall under SEC regulation, creating a coexistence of commodity contracts and investment contracts.

At the same time, trading platforms may need to re-register with the CFTC and complete compliance processes, and the spot market is expected to move towards the standardization direction of commodity futures. If CFTC regulation becomes more relaxed and clear, it is seen as a positive development. In the future, the market may see a "coin migration" as various projects actively "align" to obtain more favorable regulatory attribution, driving a new round of market rotation.

What Impact Could the Potential Rate Cut Have?

With the Federal Reserve deciding to keep the federal funds rate unchanged in the 4.25%-4.5% range at the June 17-18 FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned that without the new tariff policy from the Trump administration potentially pushing up inflation, the Fed may have already started cutting rates. There have been two prevailing views in the market. One is that with continued pressure from the Trump administration, Fed Chair Jerome Powell may "consider" resigning, significantly increasing the likelihood of a rate cut happening at the July 30 FOMC meeting.

However, according to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a rate cut at the July 30 FOMC meeting has dropped from 24% in June to 5%, with the market generally expecting the first rate cut to be delayed until September or December.

Although it's uncertain whether it will be in July or September, the trend toward a rate cut seems quite evident now. Trading observer BTCAB5 is optimistic about this and stated that if a rate cut happens on July 30, BTC could surge to $135,000. Additionally, Standard Chartered Bank even predicts it could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025. Rate cut expectations also bode well for compliance tokens like XRP and SOL, especially with the impending vote on the "GENIUS" bill. Morgan Stanley goes as far as to forecast that by the end of 2026, the Fed may cut rates seven times, bringing rates down to 2.5%-2.75%, which would be a long-term benefit for risk assets like crypto.

CPI Expectation

Well-known KOL @unaiyang stated that the U.S. June CPI data set to be released tonight at 20:30 will be a decisive factor in the short-term market, directly impacting the price movement of Bitcoin and Ethereum. The current market consensus expects the core CPI to be 3% and the CPI year-on-year rate to be 2.7%. She pointed out that "if the data comes in below expectations, it may trigger a retreat in U.S. bond yields, a weaker U.S. dollar, a boost to risk assets, and Bitcoin could potentially revisit the $122,000 range, while Ethereum could rebound to $3,200. However, if inflation data still shows 'stickiness,' it could suppress market sentiment, with BTC possibly pulling back to the $115,000–116,000 range in the short term, and ETH could also fall towards the $3,000 mark."

The current market is in a tense state, with macro data becoming the sole variable highly monitored by traders. In a context of high pressure and unclear direction, more investors choose to wait and see, awaiting clear guidance from macro data. The release of tonight's CPI may become the catalyst for the next market trend.

When will the frenzy of public companies buying Bitcoin subside, and how will it affect cryptocurrency?

As more and more public companies transition into "crypto treasuries," the influence of ETFs is waning, and the impact of public companies and institutions on cryptocurrency is gradually increasing. KOL moneyordebt pointed out that to sustain Bitcoin's power-law growth, a massive influx of new capital is needed, and only institutions can provide such a large volume. Fortunately, institutional adoption is also accelerating exponentially, especially with corporate "BTC treasuries" taking over from ETFs as the main driving force behind price increases. Bitwise's Chief Research Officer @Andre_Dragosch also presented data expressing a similar view, stating, "Retail growth is almost nowhere to be found, and the latest uptrend is mainly driven by institutions."

On-chain analyst @_43A6 also used a theory from renowned trader James Check, considering public companies' mNAV data as one of the trading indicators, along with Days to Cover and Days to Replace as two additional indicators. mNAV (Market Value to Net Asset Value ratio) has become a key indicator for judging a company's intent to buy or sell Bitcoin: when mNAV is above 1, it means the company's market value exceeds the value of its Bitcoin holdings, incentivizing share issuance and Bitcoin purchases; when mNAV is below 1, it may prompt the company to sell Bitcoin to repurchase shares, thereby correcting the deviation in market value. Once mNAV rapidly compresses among multiple leading companies, it may trigger a collective sell-off, leading to a chain reaction.

Bitcoin Reserve Company's mNAV Dashboard, Source: checkonchain

Although mNAV is influenced by market prices and has a lagging effect, it already holds a leading signal significance at the behavioral game level, making it a crucial forward-looking indicator for future Bitcoin market fluctuations. The newly emerged indicators Days to Cover and Days to Replace are also proposed to assist in observing the public companies' "buying" trends, with the former measuring the time it takes for a company to fill an estimated valuation premium at the current rate and the latter assessing the pace to double the current holdings.

Meanwhile, as MicroStrategy (MSTR) holds nearly 80% of the total Bitcoin holdings in publicly traded companies, its market dynamics are considered a key indicator of Bitcoin's price trend. James Check has stated that observing the recent issuance of three types of preferred stock by MSTR — convertible bond STRK, investment-grade bond STRF, and high-risk-rated STRD — will be a good top signaling indicator. Once the prices of these preferred stocks fall below their face value of $100, it means the market is starting to reassess MSTR's financing sustainability and the potential risks of its Bitcoin exposure. By analyzing bond yield and credit spread changes, investors can anticipate possible market top signals in advance.

MSTR Three Types of Preferred Stock Trends, Source: Checkonchain

In the current environment where institutional capital has become a driving force behind Bitcoin's rise, the credit cycle and asset leverage of companies like MSTR, known as "crypto treasuries," are quietly forming a systemic variable in the new generation of Bitcoin price actions.

Bitcoin Financial Property Transformation

From the MVRV data perspective, the current Bitcoin price is seen as healthier compared to the previous cycle. The 2017 MVRV exhibited a perfect "Tulip Bubble," whereas in 2021, with institutions like FTX entering the scene with leverage, MVRV resembled a rollercoaster ride. This year's MARV data curve is smoother and more natural, showing characteristics of a transition from disorderly to orderly, from irregular sharp ups and downs to more regular fluctuations, with a healthier and more realistic demand side.

@Trader_S18 mentioned that after the passage of the "CLARITY Act," Bitcoin's Nasdaq-like properties may decrease, while its commodity-like properties could strengthen. This means that in the future, Bitcoin's trend reference may shift somewhat from following the U.S. stock market to tracking the trends of commodities such as oil, gold, copper, and soybeans to a greater extent. For example, when Trump threatened to impose a 100% tax on Russia, causing WTI to fall, Bitcoin also fluctuated accordingly.

Formation of Broad-Based Consensus, Rise in Bitcoin Holdings' Cost Basis Key to Bull Market Support

On-chain analyst James Check recently published a study pointing out that the current Bitcoin market is displaying highly healthy structural characteristics, where the "continuous increase in the cost basis" and the extremely high proportion of "long-term holders (LTH)" have become core variables supporting the continuation of the bull market.

Key Cost Price Model

In its constructed Key Cost Price Model, it is evident that compared to the previous quarter, the overall market's relative holding cost has experienced a significant increase. This means that with each price pullback, the market's "average buy-in cost" will also rise, forming a higher chip absorption zone. According to URPD-R index data, currently over 55% of Bitcoin holding costs are concentrated above $90,000, creating a strong on-chain support zone. James Check emphasizes that unless an extreme systemic event occurs, this range is unlikely to be easily breached.

As of 2025-7-14 Investment Wealth by Realized Cost Distribution

Meanwhile, the LTH (Long-Term Holder) indicator has emitted a rare historical signal. As of July 14, 2025, about 80% of Bitcoin has not moved in the past five months, indicating extreme stability in the market's chips, with scarce selling pressure. By looking at the "Realized Value Distribution Heatmap" and the "Holder Group Profit and Loss Status Chart," it can be seen that a large number of long-term holders continue to hold in the face of global uncertainty (such as geopolitical issues, stock market adjustments, and tariff fluctuations), demonstrating a firm belief structure.

Relative Holding Amount of Each Holder Group in Profit and Loss Status

Moreover, @_43A6 further interprets the "Peak HODL" signal, indicating that the market often sees a bull run start after LTH holdings reach a peak. The average cost of LTH is around $35,000, and if an MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) of 5 is used as a reference for an extreme bull market top, as mentioned by James Check, the theoretical top price could reach as high as $175,000. However, the probability of this extreme scenario is very low, with most long-term holders gradually cashing out at "life-changing" profit points (e.g., 5x, 10x gains) instead of a one-time market crash.

Moreover, André Dragosch, PhD lists data explaining part of the reason for this phenomenon. He states that the view that "Bitcoin hit a new high because the dollar fell by more than 10% in 2025, and Bitcoin did not rise, it was just currency devaluation" is incorrect. In fact, Bitcoin has a beta coefficient to the dollar of about -1.5, indicating that BTC's increase far exceeds the implied increase from dollar devaluation alone. This suggests that the active exit of LTH is a core manifestation of market structure health, chip maturity, and the release of real value, rather than a mere currency illusion.

Can We Be Bearish?

Renowned observer artist Crypto_Painter has indicated that following a brief surge in the Bitcoin price to $123,000, the spot market's premium index has been continuously decreasing, while the open interest has not fallen in sync, indicating evident top-selling behavior from U.S. investors. Meanwhile, long positions in the futures market continue to accumulate, leading to a situation where spot is being "darkly liquidated" while futures are being "hardly longed." He points out that if this structure continues, the market may experience a short-term technical pullback, advising short-term longs to tighten their stop-loss until the spot premium is restored.

However, Crypto_Painter also emphasizes that from the perspective of the overall trend structure, there has yet to be a fundamental breakdown, so he maintains a "pullback but not bearish" stance. He further notes that although the market has already undergone a significant initial retracement, releasing some short-term risk, the medium-term risk is accumulating due to the premium not rebounding. While longs picking up positions during a pullback may provide short-term support for the price, in the context of a continuous decline in the premium, the trending market will struggle to continue.

He predicts that the market will likely enter a period of consolidation and adjustment to wait for the restoration of fund sentiment and structure. Within the current consolidation range, the illustration of three green potential support zones remains effective, and it is not advisable to easily shift to a bearish view unless it completely breaks down. What is truly alarming is when the price falls while the premium further slips, which may trigger a deeper market plunge, forming a signal of trend reversal. Crypto_Painter concludes, "In the current situation, we are not afraid of a pullback, but we fear losing control of the premium."

Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio has also chosen to adopt a wait-and-see approach. He posted an analysis of the ETH/BTC exchange rate on his personal channel, stating, "Although the price trend in the past week has been encouraging, I need to see ETH/BTC break through the current range of 0.022-0.027 to confirm a structural breakthrough. My short-term target is 0.03, a level that now seems within reach. If Ethereum can hold above the $4,000 mark, the target level of 0.04+ on a higher timeframe will also come into view. If this scenario materializes, there will be significant trading opportunities ahead."

Despite Bitcoin breaking its all-time high and market sentiment being bullish, looking back on the political upheavals, regulatory restructuring, and capital reallocation experienced this year, this round of Bitcoin's surge is no longer just a price fluctuation but a systemic reassessment driven by global capital, institutional signals, and technological faith.

As the bull market's momentum shifts from retail speculation to institutional entry, from liquidity games to holding structure upgrades, the rising narrative seems to have evolved from the four-year cycle of the "bull market loop" to the "beginning of a new cryptographic order."

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