Hyperliquid: Permissionless Deployment Makes HIP-4 Prediction Market Volume Surge Nearly 3x, Market Access Still Major Bottleneck

BlockBeats News, September 3, the Hyperliquid Research Collective (HRC) released a report stating that after the third-party permissionless deployment of the HIP-4 prediction market layer on August 29, Hyperliquid's platform saw a rapid increase in transaction volume.

Before HIP-4, the average daily transaction volume in the 28 days leading up to August was approximately $545,000. After the open deployment, on August 31, the daily transaction volume rose to $1.97 million, with a near 24-hour volume reaching $2.75 million, and the number of active traders increased from 1,256 to 1,841.

The report pointed out that the Outcome project in the prediction market has become the main beneficiary, currently occupying nearly 85% of the transaction volume share in HIP-4. Its $1 million trading incentive plan has further driven liquidity growth.

The HRC believes that Hyperliquid's core advantage lies in its unified account system. The prediction market can hedge perpetual positions with prediction market contracts in the shared asset account environment of perpetual contracts and HIP-3. This is an experience that platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are currently unable to provide. Sports prediction markets may become the largest growth area for HIP-4. During the previous World Cup, the total transaction volume of HIP-4 related markets reached $189.5 million, accounting for approximately 3% of the global World Cup prediction market transaction volume.

However, the HRC stated that the main restriction currently faced by HIP-4 is not on-chain deployment but regulatory access. The U.S. market involves regulatory frameworks such as the CFTC, SEC, etc., and sports prediction markets are particularly likely to trigger gambling-related regulatory scrutiny. HIP-4 has proven that permissionless deployment can quickly increase transaction volume, but whether it can further expand market share will depend on the regulatory environment, sports market recovery, and future governance voting.