Hyperliquid has no shortage of new narratives.

TradeXYZ announced today the launch of its own deployed prediction market Events, under the deployment name txyz. The first batch of contracts covers Up/Down for stocks, commodities, and Pre-IPO, with sports, politics, and economic events to follow.

Traders can hold spot, borrow USDC, trade Pre-IPO perpetuals, and use event markets to hedge earnings or bet on sports outcomes, all within the same account.

Hyperliquid's prediction market has yet to make much of a splash since deployments began, but TradeXYZ's entry has given the community hope, given that this team almost single-handedly brought Hyperliquid into the traditional finance spotlight.

The launch of Events also officially kicks off competition among HIP-4 deployers.

Different Market Owners

HIP-4 is Hyperliquid's improvement proposal designed for prediction markets. The most obvious question follows: Hyperliquid already deployed its own HIP-4 market, so why can TradeXYZ deploy another one?

The answer lies in the division of labor between the protocol layer and the market operation layer.

The market deployed by Hyperliquid itself is called the official market. Third-party markets like txyz share the same infrastructure, HyperCore, with order matching, balances, positions, and final on-chain settlement all handled by HyperCore.

The difference lies in who operates the specific market.

HIP-4 has a fixed data template that specifies what text prediction markets can display, how event probabilities are named (such as Yes/No, Up/Down), and which keywords can be filled in. Within this boundary, third-party deployers can choose templates, set parameters and fees, publish result determination methods, and also decide which events to list, when to stop trading, and which data source to reference.

After an event result comes out, the data source does not automatically trigger contract settlement. The deployer or an authorized settlement sub-deployer (a role specifically responsible for settlement) needs to submit the settlement result to HyperCore, which verifies permissions and then writes the result on-chain.

Therefore, "third-party deployment" means that the terms, determination, and settlement submission for a specific market are handled by a third party, similar to the relationship between Hyperliquid's main site and various HIP-3 exchanges.

Hyperliquid manages the underlying trading rules, while deployers operate the markets.

Mechanism

A binary event has two outcomes: Yes and No. Collateral can be split into two complementary "outcome tokens."

Suppose the price of Yes is 0.63, then the price of No corresponds to 0.37. Buying Yes at 0.63 is economically equivalent to selling No at 0.37. HyperCore merges the liquidity from both sides into the same order book.

Settlement after expiry is also straightforward. When settleFraction = 1, each Yes token pays out one unit of the quote asset, and No pays zero; when settleFraction = 0, the outcome is reversed. Some templates also allow settlement values between 0 and 1, so that multiple candidate outcomes (such as who will win the US Open) can also form a single question, with each outcome having its own order book.

HIP-4 divides "settlement determination" into two steps. The market first calculates the result from the declared data source according to a public method; the deployer then converts the result into the settlement value used on-chain and submits it to HyperCore.

TradeXYZ's daily Up/Down market provides a concrete example. According to the documentation, the system reads the five most recent closed one-minute candles before settlement, calculates the high, low, and average closing price for each candle, and then takes the arithmetic mean of the five results. Yes wins only if this price is strictly above the strike; if they are equal or the average price is lower, No wins.

This five-minute window reduces the ability of the last trade or instantaneous volatility to affect settlement. In the early stages of sports markets, ESPN is used as the data source. How match postponements, cancellations, draws, or result corrections are handled each have their own templates and specific terms.

HIP-4 deployers such as TradeXYZ can place Events alongside spot, lending, and HIP-3 contracts in the same account, allowing traders to simultaneously express continuous price views and discrete outcomes at a specific point in time. This is the essential difference between HIP-4 and traditional prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi. Although these two traditional prediction markets have also begun operating PerpDEX businesses, compared with Hyperliquid, they still have a long way to go in terms of liquidity, user mindshare, and trading experience.

Competitive Landscape

TradeXYZ's leverage lies in the already-existing HIP-3 market. Events can derive continuous prices from these perpetual contracts and also connect event trading to existing user accounts. It chose to enter through Up/Down markets for stocks, commodities, and Pre-IPO, then expand into sports, politics, and economic events, following a path of extending from financial trading to real-world outcomes.

According to Loris.tools, Events captured a 15% share of trading volume on its first day online. The other two third-party deployers, Outcome and Skew, accounted for 75% and 3.5%, respectively.

Outcome is the earliest HIP-4 deployer, launching on August 29 and securing a first-mover advantage. Since launch, Outcome has rolled out trading incentive campaigns totaling $1 million, and Outcome's cumulative trading volume currently exceeds $20 million.

Skew.trade received 500,000 HYPE provided by Hyperion DeFi. The project was formerly Sharp terminal, a Polymarket trading terminal, and subsequently pivoted to HIP-4. The project is currently still in the Waitlist phase, and all markets launched so far are bet-on-price-direction markets.

As market categories and liquidity gradually become richer, Hyperliquid is expected to secure a place in the prediction market. For Polymarket and Kalshi, when traders can complete betting and hedging within the same Hyperliquid account, retaining them will require more persuasive reasons.

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