US-Iran Clashes Boost Oil Prices, Smart Money Predicts WTI September Will Not Fall Below $70

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a savvy investor has put in $390 on the question "Will WTI Crude Oil Futures Fall Below $70 in September?" with an average buy-in probability of 78.0%. Currently, the probability of "Yes" is 20.5%.

Constancefung has also invested $390, with the top-performing category in this market being Finance, with a net profit of $1.2k. Out of Constancefung's 94 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 87/94 (93%), with 9 trades where the buy-in price was less than $0.8 and the sell-out price was over $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.701-$0.85), the median historical investment amount is $33, making this investment 11.8 times that median.

Following the U.S. military strike on Iran's Laralack Island today, WTI Crude Oil Futures have risen by 2.55% to reach $85.53 per barrel. The U.S. military destroyed 2 Iranian missile launch sites on Laralack Island. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps subsequently announced an attack on 2 U.S. military bases in Jordan. Around 5 visible bulk commodity ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily, with one oil tanker entering the strait being hit by a projectile. Negotiations to end the war between the U.S. and Iran are currently at an impasse.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's August Short-Term Energy Outlook predicts a slow increase in oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz in September. The agency estimates that global oil inventories will decline by 3.8 million barrels per day in the third quarter, with the production and trade landscape possibly not fully recovering until early 2027.

Reuters reported on the 29th that Russia has extended the export ban on diesel, bunker fuel, and light diesel oil until September 30. Drone attacks from Ukraine have caused several Russian refineries to shut down, leading to an ongoing fuel shortage in Russia. Russia is usually the world's second-largest diesel exporter, and export restrictions will continue to impact international refined oil prices and refinery margins.

OPEC+ is set to increase its daily production quota by around 188,000 barrels in September. The International Energy Agency predicts a daily decrease of 1.6 million barrels in global oil demand by 2026. Progress in strait navigation, production halts in the Gulf region, and U.S.-Iran military actions will continue to influence September's crude oil prices.
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