Smart Money Predicts NVIDIA to Maintain Top Market Cap Position in the Year, Leading Apple by Approximately $570 Billion After Earnings Report
According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a smart money has placed a $6.9k bet on "Will NVIDIA become the company with the highest market capitalization by December 31, 2026?" with an average buy probability of 28.2%. The current probability for "Yes" is 76.0%.
Hauchn has also placed a $6.9k bet, with the top relevant sector in this market being Finance, with a sector net profit of $305k. Out of 166 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 60/166 (36%), with 30 trades having a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.201-$0.35), the median historical investment amount is $3.3k.
On August 28, NVIDIA closed at $217.55, with a market cap of approximately $5.24T. Apple had a market cap of around $4.67T during the same period, with a difference of about $570B between the two companies. NVIDIA rose by 8.7% on the 27th and fell by 4.57% on the 28th but remains the world's highest market cap public company.
On the 26th, NVIDIA announced that its second-quarter revenue reached $96.2B, a 106% year-on-year growth; data center revenue reached $89.0B, a 117% year-on-year growth; and the net profit reached $59.7B. The company expects revenue of around $108B for the current quarter and anticipates a revenue growth of about 70% for the next fiscal year. The Vera Rubin platform has already started shipping and is expected to contribute approximately 20% of data center revenue in the current quarter.
Reuters reported on the 26th that NVIDIA and Amazon Web Services plan to deploy around 2 million processors in additional in 2027 and 2028. NVIDIA is also collaborating with multiple financial institutions to establish an AI infrastructure financing platform, planning to gradually mobilize over $500B of third-party capital. The company expects the AI lab to contribute about 1/4 of the overall business in the next fiscal year.
NVIDIA anticipates continued tightness in memory and other component supplies, with a fourth-quarter gross margin expected to decrease to around 71%-72%. The revenue forecast for this current quarter does not include the China data center computation business, and the delivery volume of the approved H200 chip to China remains limited. The recovery of the China business and the speed of supply chain expansion will affect future revenue realization.
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